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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:28 pm 
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“I think they’re all important, although wins and losses get too much credit. You can only control what you’re doing. You can’t control how many runs your team scores for you, or a bullpen guy coming in and giving up runs."

Jon Lester

Or your team hitting a 3 run home run after you're out of the game to get you off the hook for a loss.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:01 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
What explains run support over a career though? It's not like Buerhle played with powerhouse teams his whole career that were smashing the league.

If his teams were scoring 4.9 runs per game, they were offensive powerhouses. At least during the games he pitched. If a team scored an average of 4.9 runs, that is 794 runs in a season. Wow.

The early 2000s White Sox could definitely hit the hell out of the ball consistently. Frank Thomas, Magglio, Lee, Valentin, Konerko, Rowand...

Current generation Blue Jays also score a ton of runs.

And I don't know much about the 2012 Marlins, but Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes were on that team.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:42 pm 
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America wrote:
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“I think they’re all important, although wins and losses get too much credit. You can only control what you’re doing. You can’t control how many runs your team scores for you, or a bullpen guy coming in and giving up runs."

Jon Lester


I'll have to look it up but there is a polar opposite quote from Sale last year. The satisfaction of his opinion was accentuated because the question was asked by Bernstein who expected a different answer to fit his narrative.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:47 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
What explains run support over a career though? It's not like Buerhle played with powerhouse teams his whole career that were smashing the league.

If his teams were scoring 4.9 runs per game, they were offensive powerhouses. At least during the games he pitched. If a team scored an average of 4.9 runs, that is 794 runs in a season. Wow.

The early 2000s White Sox could definitely hit the hell out of the ball consistently. Frank Thomas, Magglio, Lee, Valentin, Konerko, Rowand...

Current generation Blue Jays also score a ton of runs.

And I don't know much about the 2012 Marlins, but Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes were on that team.
The Sox were a pretty good offensive team but they also played in a ballpark and in the types of games that don't lend themselves well to 2-0 scores.

It's the same things they said about Peavy when he came to the Sox.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:44 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
:lol: :lol:

Ok, IMU. How many starting pitchers have won 200 games since the start of 2001 (his first year as a starter)? What is your "standard" 200 game winner now a days?


Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Bartolo Colon
Tim Wakefield
Mike Mussina
Jamie Moyer
CC Sabathia
Tim Hudson
Roy Halladay
John Smoltz
Pedro Martinez
David Wells
Andy Pettite
Roger Clemens
Chuck Finley
Kenny Rogers
Curt Schilling

There may be a few more. I've made my point.


Most of those guys have worse ERA+ than Buehrle. The only ones with significantly better ERA+ are Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Schilling.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:44 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Most of those guys have worse ERA+ than Buehrle. The only ones with significantly better ERA+ are Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Schilling.

So now you want to use ERA+?

:lol: :lol: Get the fuck out.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:52 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Most of those guys have worse ERA+ than Buehrle. The only ones with significantly better ERA+ are Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Schilling.

So now you want to use ERA+?

:lol: :lol: Get the fuck out.

Why continue to play the Sox fan/ dumb baseball thoughts IMU? You can go on forever and never win. Always a stupid counter argument.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:58 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Most of those guys have worse ERA+ than Buehrle. The only ones with significantly better ERA+ are Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Schilling.

So now you want to use ERA+?

:lol: :lol: Get the fuck out.


What are you laughing about? For all its faults, it's better than straight ERA. You probably should have checked the ERAs before you posted that list of guys most of whom have higher ones than Buehrle. That's the kind of shit I know off the top of my head.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:00 pm 
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Scooter wrote:
IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Most of those guys have worse ERA+ than Buehrle. The only ones with significantly better ERA+ are Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Schilling.

So now you want to use ERA+?

:lol: :lol: Get the fuck out.

Why continue to play the Sox fan/ dumb baseball thoughts IMU? You can go on forever and never win. Always a stupid counter argument.


I'm not making a counter argument. He posted his approved list of 200 games winners with ostensibly better ERAs than Buehrle and it wasn't true for most of them. Just pointing out an incontrovertible fact.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:04 pm 
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Bless you JORR the God of baseball. All knowing, all seeing, master of baseball knowledge.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:05 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Most of those guys have worse ERA+ than Buehrle. The only ones with significantly better ERA+ are Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Schilling.

So now you want to use ERA+?

:lol: :lol: Get the fuck out.


What are you laughing about? For all its faults, it's better than straight ERA. You probably should have checked the ERAs before you posted that list of guys most of whom have higher ones than Buehrle. That's the kind of shit I know off the top of my head.

I did check the ERAs. Most do NOT have higher ERAs than Buehrle.

Do you want to post each player's career ERA? Please do so.

Also, you cannot shit on advanced stats and sabermetrics in every thread and decide to use them here.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:10 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Most of those guys have worse ERA+ than Buehrle. The only ones with significantly better ERA+ are Maddux, Pedro, Clemens, and Schilling.

So now you want to use ERA+?

:lol: :lol: Get the fuck out.


What are you laughing about? For all its faults, it's better than straight ERA. You probably should have checked the ERAs before you posted that list of guys most of whom have higher ones than Buehrle. That's the kind of shit I know off the top of my head.

I did check the ERAs. Most do NOT have higher ERAs than Buehrle.

Do you want to post each player's career ERA? Please do so.

Also, you cannot shit on advanced stats and sabermetrics in every thread and decide to use them here.


I never shit on "advanced stats". Besides, ERA and ERA+ are hardly "advanced".

I'm not looking them up but I know for sure Colon, Wakefield, Moyer, Rogers, Wells, and Finley all have higher ERA/ERA+ than Buehrle. If you take out his seasons as a reliever Smoltz is going to be fairly close in ERA+. Glavine is very similar in ERA+, understandably lower in actual ERA since he faced pitchers and NL lineups. Just admit you're wrong and don't know what the fuck you're talking about, as usual.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:14 pm 
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Scooter wrote:
Bless you JORR the God of baseball. All knowing, all seeing, master of baseball knowledge.


It's not really hard for me to remember right around where a guy's career BA or ERA is. It doesn't make me special among the guys I go to games with.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:19 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Scooter wrote:
Bless you JORR the God of baseball. All knowing, all seeing, master of baseball knowledge.


It's not really hard for me to remember right around where a guy's career BA or ERA is. It doesn't make me special among the guys I go to games with.

I cannot remember what I did yesterday. Good for you. You are special.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:24 pm 
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i think he can make the HOF. there are guys like red ruffing who have high ERA's (and he didn't even win 300 games) in the HOF. two no hitters in your career, including a perfect game, done in the AL, is pretty impressive.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:30 pm 
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I doubt HOF, but he could win 250.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:38 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm not looking them up but I know for sure Colon, Wakefield, Moyer, Rogers, Wells, and Finley all have higher ERA/ERA+ than Buehrle. If you take out his seasons as a reliever Smoltz is going to be fairly close in ERA+. Glavine is very similar in ERA+, understandably lower in actual ERA since he faced pitchers and NL lineups.

You said most, and then posted 6. Out of 17. Hmmm.

ERA+ is most assuredly an advanced statistic.

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Just admit you're wrong and don't know what the fuck you're talking about, as usual.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:15 pm 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Could see this one coming a mile away.


Buehrle=good to very good pitcher who has benefited from better than average run support throughout his career which has likely has won him more games than a similarly talented pitcher with league average run support.

Pretty easy to get.

I'd say he benefited from starting a lot of games and pitching deep into those games thus giving his offense more time to score him runs and the bullpen less time to blow the win. That's also pretty easy to get.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:44 pm 
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Scooter wrote:
I cannot remember what I did yesterday.
It was not making smart posts here. I can assure you of that.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:37 am 
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why has neither side posted the ERAs to end the debate

Mark Buehrle is a very good pitcher with all kinds of indicia of greatness (landmarks as some might say)on his resume but he just isn't great in terms of HOF consideration

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:45 am 
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This thread should have been over when I posted his neutralized record. No one can argue with that.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:48 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
IMU wrote:
If a pitcher has an ERA of 4.50 over the course of 462 starts, and his teams score an average of 4.90 runs in those games, he is very likely to be a winning pitcher.

A 4.50 ERA is not good.

A pitcher with a 4.50 ERA is not good.
What explains run support over a career though? It's not like Buerhle played with powerhouse teams his whole career that were smashing the league.

If his teams are able to score so many runs then wouldn't it also be harder to have a lower ERA?

Thats the opposite side of the coin JORR espouses. He's pitching those games in the same park against a team that has a chance to hit in the same atmosphere his players are hitting in. Is he just lucky his teams were better a lot of time? Why couldn't the opposition take advantage of hitting against him in the same conditions and score just as many runs? Maybe Beurhle himself was just better than the guy he was facing therefore deserved the wins most of the time?

But you are overemphasizing the elements (park factor, weather, etc) in lieu of the most important one "the skill of the opponent you are facing"

There is a big difference between a great offensive team and the worst offensive team. Getting the great team out is a more difficult act than getting the bad team out (and the difference is noticeable)

But yes, over a career it all evens out anyway.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:26 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a big difference between a great offensive team and the worst offensive team. Getting the great team out is a more difficult act than getting the bad team out (and the difference is noticeable)


You keep making that argument as if a guy might be on the best team and face the worst team every single start. The biggest difference between the best and worse offenses is about two runs per game. Significant, yes, but it should be mitigated by the fact that the better team is facing a pitcher you are suggesting is elite. That's why we have these arguments. But in the vast majority of games the differences between the offenses is a fraction of a run, something that cannot even be scored except in theory.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:32 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a big difference between a great offensive team and the worst offensive team. Getting the great team out is a more difficult act than getting the bad team out (and the difference is noticeable)


You keep making that argument as if a guy might be on the best team and face the worst team every single start. The biggest difference between the best and worse offenses is about two runs per game. Significant, yes, but it should be mitigated by the fact that the better team is facing a pitcher you are suggesting is elite. That's why we have these arguments. But in the vast majority of games the differences between the offenses is a fraction of a run, something that cannot even be scored except in theory.

Im not suggesting anything about the pitcher


Getting a top offensive team out is more difficult than a bottom team for ALL pitchers.

And no, its not mitigated or negligible.

The fraction of a run thing just doesnt mean anything. A team that scores 4.99 is significantly harder to get out than a team that scores 4.01. You dont have to be able to score a fraction of a run for a fraction of a run to matter.

And team averages dont even always apply because the lineup is not the same everyday.


Your theory is based on all offenses being "pretty much the same" but they arent.


That's why Wins are not always the best way to judge a starter. They do tell the story much of the time, but not always.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:40 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a big difference between a great offensive team and the worst offensive team. Getting the great team out is a more difficult act than getting the bad team out (and the difference is noticeable)


You keep making that argument as if a guy might be on the best team and face the worst team every single start. The biggest difference between the best and worse offenses is about two runs per game. Significant, yes, but it should be mitigated by the fact that the better team is facing a pitcher you are suggesting is elite. That's why we have these arguments. But in the vast majority of games the differences between the offenses is a fraction of a run, something that cannot even be scored except in theory.

Im not suggesting anything about the pitcher


Getting a top offensive team out is more difficult than a bottom team for ALL pitchers.

And no, its not mitigated or negligible.

The fraction of a run thing just doesnt mean anything. A team that scores 4.99 is significantly harder to get out than a team that scores 4.01. You dont have to be able to score a fraction of a run for a fraction of a run to matter.

And team averages dont even always apply because the lineup is not the same everyday.


Your theory is based on all offenses being "pretty much the same" but they arent.


That's why Wins are not always the best way to judge a starter. They do tell the story much of the time, but not always.


Of course there is not a practical difference between a team that scores 4.25 runs per game and one that scores 4.67. It most certainly is negligible.

And then there's the fact that such a thing only comes up when someone tries to argue that a certain guy that he is claiming to be "good" or "great" happens to lose a game vs. an ostensibly worse pitcher and he is using a marginally "better" offense to explain away the failure of his favored man.

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:46 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
A team that scores 4.99 is significantly harder to get out than a team that scores 4.01.


So a Rockies team that scores 4.99/game is harder to get out than a Dodgers team that scores 4.01/game? I don't think so. There are all kinds of factors that can result in a team averaging a fraction of a run more per game.

Remember when the Phillies beat the Cubs 23-22? That was in May, 1979. If Ron Guidry happened to toss a shutout against a team that same day, You're really gonna credit the Cubs for being .13 runs better than that team?

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:47 am 
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All offenses are not equal and getting different offenses out requires different skill levels. Those are facts.

Its not negligible. Its significant. You decided a long time ago that offenses are "pretty much the same" but then you talk about environments. The biggest part of the environment is the opposing offense.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:49 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
A team that scores 4.99 is significantly harder to get out than a team that scores 4.01.


So a Rockies team that scores 4.99/game is harder to get out than a Dodgers team that scores 4.01/game? I don't think so. There are all kinds of factors that can result in a team averaging a fraction of a run more per game.

Now you're using extremes.

There is vast differences in the talent of baseball offenses and you know it.


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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:51 am 
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Isn't there a significant difference between a 4.99 era pitcher and a 4.0 era pitcher?

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 Post subject: Re: Mark Buehrle
PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:52 am 
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With the decline of talent 200 Wins makes you a HOF'er

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