Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
National-level, off-season discussion of the NFL will engage with NFL fans at some unknown rate, let's call it X.
National-level, in-season discussion of the NBA will engage with NBA fans at some unknown rate, let's call it Y.
Let's call the total number of NFL fans in the coverage area of WSCR's signal (the original station that touched off the controversy here) X'.
Let's call the total number of NBA fans in the coverage area of WSCR's signal Y'.
In order for the premise "National NBA talk is more appealing/compelling in March than off-season national NFL talk" to be true, the following must be true:
Y*Y' > X*X'
Let's pick some figures for X and Y, just for fun. I'll say that 40% of NFL fans will find off-season, national-level discussion of the league to be interesting/compelling, and I'll also say that 80% of NBA fans find in-season, national-level NBA discussion to be the same. That means 2 out of every 5 NFL fans want to hear about Odell Beckham in March, whereas 4 out of every 5 NBA fans would like to hear about any out-of-town NBA matchup in March. I'd say that's fair, if not shaded a little bit towards the NBA's favor.
Let's plug those in, we now have:
0.8*Y' > 0.4*X'
Now we have to approximate the relative size of each sport's respective fandom. I think it would be reasonable to approximate the distribution of fandom in this town based on national distributions of same. There doesn't appear to be a reason for fans in this town to skew away from national trends towards NFL or NBA fandom, at least to me. I also think that regular season tv ratings are the best bet we have at approximating "true" sizes of each fandom, and it also helps that TV ratings have been discussed a lot for each league in this thread. in the 2017-2018 season, the NBA averaged 1.4 million viewers on national telecasts this year. The NFL for the same time frame averaged 14.9 million viewers per game. Let's call it 1.5 and 15 for each respective league a ratio of NFL to NBA fandom of 10:1.
But that's not entirely fair: The NBA has a much longer season than the NFL. Let's express "total viewership" instead. With the 1.5 million viewership average of the NBA, with 30 teams playing an 82 game season, that results in 1230 individual games played. As a fudge factor, we will assume that all NBA games get their national broadcast viewership, resulting in 1.845 billion views of a regular NBA season. The NFL has 32 teams playing a 16 game season, for 256 discreet matchups, resulting in 3.84 billion views per regular NFL season. The average NFL season viewership is a little more than twice the size of the average NBA season viewership. Let's call it 2:1, NFL to NBA. Let's plug and chug:
0.8*1.845 > 0.4*3.84
1.476 > 1.536?
Hmm, something isn't right with our original premise, because the figures used, the ones heavily slated towards the NBA (remember, each NBA regular season matchup got its national broadcast equivalent viewership, while the NFL just got the actual average rating for each game).
Given these figures, I would bet good money that the sheer size of NFL fandom makes off-season NFL discussion, even at a national level, more compelling to a greater number of listeners than does regular season, national-level, NBA discussion.
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