http://deadspin.com/how-america-s-favor ... 1782438574

A very long, but very solid read.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

I read that headline and I immediately thought it was going to be about the Bookie Priest. Then it wasn't, but as I read, most everything applied to the Bookie Priest.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Funny how almost any form of easy money becomes mainstream. After CBS bought Sportsline (best sports web site ever) they eventually turned the news site into CBSSports.com and made Sportline.com a high-tech looking pay tout site. Human trafficking/Prostitution is about the only business left that hasn't been corporatized. As far as we know.

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Soccer 1,2,3
Spanish Honor Society 1,2,3,4
Forensics 1,2,3,4

"Smiles with Nostrils"

"...no Hmong, go find some blacks"

suckers pay for picks

better to go down using your own research than to rely on someone who is most likely scamming you

I have found forum's of guys who play the games themselves to be more helpful than any stupid touting services.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

the only touts you need are here.

fade favrefan and you can retire early

I seriously do follow one newsletter and make sure they are on the opposite side of my bet before I put any money down.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

There are some legitimate newsletters. Coast to Coast used to have a thread here.

Some friends I grew up with- three brothers who all have PhDs in physics- have a very serious one. But these guys aren't handicappers and they don't give out selections. They have developed software that is used to trade stocks and applied it to the NFL and the NBA. They identify patterns. For example, in the last fifteen years teams that cover as the road dog two weeks in a row and then come home as the favorite are 6-38 against the spread. That's not a real example, I just made it up, but that's the kind of stuff they are identifying and using that info to slant the odds in their favor. They never "pick" anything. They aren't really even sports fans.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

They could help you out.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

The only issue with most of that stuff is sample size and relevance. You'll get someone saying when the Bears play a noon game the week after playing a night game against the AFC they are 7-1 ATS. Then you look up those games and the most recent one is from 2001... literally nobody associated with the team (save the ownership) had anything to do with any of those games. Your example is more credible since you are basing a lot of it on the psychology of the guy betting -- if he sees that they covered as a dog two weeks in a row they are going to think they are better than they should be.

I wrote a program to follow NCAA basketball one year, and try to identify the pace and efficiency of each team, primarily looking for O/U bets. It did not account for injuries, playing time, etc. At the time, there was that British betting company (I can't remember the name now) where you would set your own lines and people would buy them, kinda like the stock market. I would find pretty good deals with some of the more obscure conferences (Atlantic Sun, Patriot, Horizon, etc.) and did OK betting small amounts (like $50 a game.) When it got to the NCAA tourney, it would make ridiculous predictions -- it wasn't really good at comparing conference strengths.

I'm on the BC Lions tonight and it looks like they have a chance.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

In 06-07 I made about 2k betting on NCAA basketball. I bet against every single top 25 game every night from December through the end of February.

20 non ranked/ lower ranked underdogs vs ranked
35 lower ranked favored over ranked
50 non ranked favored over ranked.

I used both the AP ad coaches polls. As soon as the games were posted I bet them. If two ranked teams played, but one was higher than the other and vice versa in the different polls I didn't bet the game. A lot of people were using this system on EOG. The following season, I got crushed using the same system and stopped after about a month. I followed along the rest of the year but results would of been the same All those games I was winning by a point or two I was now losing.

The thing that got me out of gambling was when I made a spread sheet of NBA bets I made. I bet 50 dollars on every game I played for about two months. I was 21-20 about down 50 dollars. It was then that it really sunk in you probably cant win.

One betting thing I did one baseball season was bet 25 dollars only on under dogs that were a minimum of +200. Not every game that was +200 or higher but just one a day when they were available. I was actually up a small amount of money after a month or so but it was miserable losing around 2 out of every 3 bets placed so I stopped.

From those two years the one thing I remember most about those board was some tout named Chuck Luck. He would constantly post plays with bull shit lines or post "winners" after the game had finished.

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Sure, the size of the samples is critical. But there are patterns and they will yield a profit if you blindly follow them without getting emotional. It's no different than the stock market.

What you mention about offering your own lines is the hot new thing in horse racing. If there is going to be a future for racing in the U.S., that's probably where it lies. It's called exchange wagering and so far is only legal in New Jersey. It's pretty nice to offer or shop for your price. The problem in harness racing is liquidity. The only track that really has any type of significant handle is the Meadowlands. Pools at the slots tracks are often so shallow that one can drastically move the board with a hundred dollar bet.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

Good read...couldn't get through the whole thing, but it's legit.
The gambling thing has never resonated with me. You are always setup to lose. Sure, I can spend a day at Arlington and have fun with a small budgeted amount of money I expect to lose for the sake of entertainment. But I spend way too much of my life working to just give money away....and that's the end story.

There's no shortage of people who love to gamble...I'm not one of them.

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It sounds like you spent some time at www.eog.com. That NCAA basketball system was pushed by a guy named Cannon.

And yes, Chuck Luck is an obnoxious hillbilly.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

which board was that? I have seen that guy in the past on some board peruse.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.