There are some legitimate newsletters. Coast to Coast used to have a thread here.

Some friends I grew up with- three brothers who all have PhDs in physics- have a very serious one. But these guys aren't handicappers and they don't give out selections. They have developed software that is used to trade stocks and applied it to the NFL and the NBA. They identify patterns. For example, in the last fifteen years teams that cover as the road dog two weeks in a row and then come home as the favorite are 6-38 against the spread. That's not a real example, I just made it up, but that's the kind of stuff they are identifying and using that info to slant the odds in their favor. They never "pick" anything. They aren't really even sports fans.

There are some legitimate newsletters. Coast to Coast used to have a thread here.

Some friends I grew up with- three brothers who all have PhDs in physics- have a very serious one. But these guys aren't handicappers and they don't give out selections. They have developed software that is used to trade stocks and applied it to the NFL and the NBA. They identify patterns. For example, in the last fifteen years teams that cover as the road dog two weeks in a row and then come home as the favorite are 6-38 against the spread. That's not a real example, I just made it up, but that's the kind of stuff they are identifying and using that info to slant the odds in their favor. They never "pick" anything. They aren't really even sports fans.

The only issue with most of that stuff is sample size and relevance. You'll get someone saying when the Bears play a noon game the week after playing a night game against the AFC they are 7-1 ATS. Then you look up those games and the most recent one is from 2001... literally nobody associated with the team (save the ownership) had anything to do with any of those games. Your example is more credible since you are basing a lot of it on the psychology of the guy betting -- if he sees that they covered as a dog two weeks in a row they are going to think they are better than they should be.

I wrote a program to follow NCAA basketball one year, and try to identify the pace and efficiency of each team, primarily looking for O/U bets. It did not account for injuries, playing time, etc. At the time, there was that British betting company (I can't remember the name now) where you would set your own lines and people would buy them, kinda like the stock market. I would find pretty good deals with some of the more obscure conferences (Atlantic Sun, Patriot, Horizon, etc.) and did OK betting small amounts (like $50 a game.) When it got to the NCAA tourney, it would make ridiculous predictions -- it wasn't really good at comparing conference strengths.

I'm on the BC Lions tonight and it looks like they have a chance.

In 06-07 I made about 2k betting on NCAA basketball. I bet against every single top 25 game every night from December through the end of February.

20 non ranked/ lower ranked underdogs vs ranked
35 lower ranked favored over ranked
50 non ranked favored over ranked.

I used both the AP ad coaches polls. As soon as the games were posted I bet them. If two ranked teams played, but one was higher than the other and vice versa in the different polls I didn't bet the game. A lot of people were using this system on EOG. The following season, I got crushed using the same system and stopped after about a month. I followed along the rest of the year but results would of been the same All those games I was winning by a point or two I was now losing.

The thing that got me out of gambling was when I made a spread sheet of NBA bets I made. I bet 50 dollars on every game I played for about two months. I was 21-20 about down 50 dollars. It was then that it really sunk in you probably cant win.

One betting thing I did one baseball season was bet 25 dollars only on under dogs that were a minimum of +200. Not every game that was +200 or higher but just one a day when they were available. I was actually up a small amount of money after a month or so but it was miserable losing around 2 out of every 3 bets placed so I stopped.

From those two years the one thing I remember most about those board was some tout named Chuck Luck. He would constantly post plays with bull shit lines or post "winners" after the game had finished.

In 06-07 I made about 2k betting on NCAA basketball. I bet against every single top 25 game every night from December through the end of February.

20 non ranked/ lower ranked underdogs vs ranked
35 lower ranked favored over ranked
50 non ranked favored over ranked.

I used both the AP ad coaches polls. As soon as the games were posted I bet them. If two ranked teams played, but one was higher than the other and vice versa in the different polls I didn't bet the game. A lot of people were using this system on EOG. The following season, I got crushed using the same system and stopped after about a month. I followed along the rest of the year but results would of been the same All those games I was winning by a point or two I was now losing.

The thing that got me out of gambling was when I made a spread sheet of NBA bets I made. I bet 50 dollars on every game I played for about two months. I was 21-20 about down 50 dollars. It was then that it really sunk in you probably cant win.

One betting thing I did one baseball season was bet 25 dollars only on under dogs that were a minimum of +200. Not every game that was +200 or higher but just one a day when they were available. I was actually up a small amount of money after a month or so but it was miserable losing around 2 out of every 3 bets placed so I stopped.

From those two years the one thing I remember most about those board was some tout named Chuck Luck. He would constantly post plays with bull shit lines or post "winners" after the game had finished.