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| The Win/Loss Argument https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=101512 |
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| Author: | Terry's Peeps [ Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Win/Loss Argument |
I hope it never dies! Quintana sucks! |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Arguement |
Spell better. |
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| Author: | Terry's Peeps [ Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Arguement |
READS ALMOST FINE! |
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| Author: | Terry's Peeps [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Back and better than ever. |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
The only time where we assume all offenses are equal! Equality for offenses! Wins for some! |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Darkside wrote: The only time where we assume all offenses are equal! They're not equal but in most cases their inequality cannot be expressed within the space of a single game. Especially against a "top ten pitcher in the majors." |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Darkside wrote: The only time where we assume all offenses are equal! They're not equal but in most cases their inequality cannot be expressed within the space of a single game. Especially against a "top ten pitcher in the majors." That's stupid. |
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| Author: | Nas [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Darkside wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Darkside wrote: The only time where we assume all offenses are equal! They're not equal but in most cases their inequality cannot be expressed within the space of a single game. Especially against a "top ten pitcher in the majors." That's stupid. Agreed |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Darkside wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Darkside wrote: The only time where we assume all offenses are equal! They're not equal but in most cases their inequality cannot be expressed within the space of a single game. Especially against a "top ten pitcher in the majors." That's stupid. Coming from a Trump voter I'll consider that a compliment. And I will also note that calling something or someone "stupid" isn't really a substitute for legitimate argument. |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Why is it, or is it not, stupid? Can I get a couple of cogent sentences on each side of the issue? Just for shits and giggles, you know. |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Who is a Trump voter? What the merry fuck are you talking about |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Darkside wrote: Who is a Trump voter? What the merry fuck are you talking about I will guess he made that assumption vis a vis your ownership of guns. Not particularly sound rationale, but superficially how he got from A to B is tacitly understandable ... until one starts actually considering it for more than a few seconds anyway. |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Don Tiny wrote: Why is it, or is it not, stupid? Can I get a couple of cogent sentences on each side of the issue? Just for shits and giggles, you know. I'm sure you know my position. Yes, the Sox offense is worse than that of the team Quintana is facing in the majority of games. That being said, in the majority of those games the difference is less than a full run on average. Since it's impossible to score a fraction of a run, the two teams are pretty much equal offensively going into the game, at least as a practical matter. And that is before TOP TEN MAJOR LEAGUE STARTER JOSE QUINTANA takes the mound. |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Don Tiny wrote: Why is it, or is it not, stupid? Can I get a couple of cogent sentences on each side of the issue? Just for shits and giggles, you know. I say it's stupid because the inequity between offenses is expressed on the micro scale on a day basis in which a team will score more runs than their opponent in a single game. Jorr says that over the course of a season, offenses are nearly identical with the best and the worst being expressed in differences of less than a run per game, which over 162 games is significant in a microcosm of a single game. Offenses on the small scale are not nearly equals which is the crux of JORRs win loss argument. Bad offenses aren't just necessarily not scoring runs over the course of a whole season, but rather tend to be wildly inconsistent which is being ignored by jorr. In short, just because a team scored a fraction of a difference of a run over the course of a whole season doesn't mean that the4e isn't a significant difference of offensive potential on a sine day or week or series. Offenses are NOT equal, and therefore we cannot eliminate offensive potential when comparing pitchers overall wins and claim that a pitcher is simply pitching against another pitcher. |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Don Tiny wrote: Darkside wrote: Who is a Trump voter? What the merry fuck are you talking about I will guess he made that assumption vis a vis your ownership of guns. Not particularly sound rationale, but superficially how he got from A to B is tacitly understandable ... until one starts actually considering it for more than a few seconds anyway. If that's the case, I guess Trump will win in a landslide since there's over 100 million gun owners and over 300 million guns in the US |
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| Author: | JORR [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Darkside wrote: Jorr says that over the course of a season, offenses are nearly identical JORR never says any such thing. You know you're losing when you mischaracterize and flat out lie. |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Darkside wrote: Jorr says that over the course of a season, offenses are nearly identical JORR never says any such thing. You know you're losing when you mischaracterize and flat out lie. Okay, what say you then? (sorry, I see you already did above his post ... nvm) |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Darkside wrote: Jorr says that over the course of a season, offenses are nearly identical JORR never says any such thing. You know you're losing when you mischaracterize and flat out lie. But you do say that. How is saying that over the course of a season offenses are within a fraction of a run of each other and you cannot score a fraction of a run? You said that the offenses are practically equal going into the game in this very thread dude. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
The truth is this: Over a career, W/L is one of the best measures of success. However, it takes a very large sample size to be effective; therefore, it is not good if you are comparing spans of a year or less (and maybe even more than that). The need for a large sample size is also the reason the baseball playoffs are so random (eat it, Rick). |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
leashyourkids wrote: The truth is this: Over a career, W/L is one of the best measures of success. However, it takes a very large sample size to be effective; therefore, it is not good if you are comparing spans of a year or less (and maybe even more than that). The need for a large sample size is also the reason the baseball playoffs are so random (eat it, Rick). Well, it tells you a lot about the pitcher and also quite a bit about the rest of his team. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Darkside wrote: leashyourkids wrote: The truth is this: Over a career, W/L is one of the best measures of success. However, it takes a very large sample size to be effective; therefore, it is not good if you are comparing spans of a year or less (and maybe even more than that). The need for a large sample size is also the reason the baseball playoffs are so random (eat it, Rick). Well, it tells you a lot about the pitcher and also quite a bit about the rest of his team. While I don't agree with JORR's POV entirely, I do have to say that a good pitcher is going to have a large enough sample and variance in teams over an entire career that it shouldn't matter and the W/L% will be reflective of how good they are. |
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| Author: | Nas [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
leashyourkids wrote: Darkside wrote: leashyourkids wrote: The truth is this: Over a career, W/L is one of the best measures of success. However, it takes a very large sample size to be effective; therefore, it is not good if you are comparing spans of a year or less (and maybe even more than that). The need for a large sample size is also the reason the baseball playoffs are so random (eat it, Rick). Well, it tells you a lot about the pitcher and also quite a bit about the rest of his team. While I don't agree with JORR's POV entirely, I do have to say that a good pitcher is going to have a large enough sample and variance in teams over an entire career that it shouldn't matter and the W/L% will be reflective of how good they are. I would generally agree. As has been said MANY times Quintana is an outlier. He's finished in the bottom 10 in run support every year of his career. Half his games have been no decisions. |
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
I completely agree that you don't typically get wins by being a bad pitcher. I know for a fact that a good pitcher can get plenty of losses... even over a sample size of a whole season or longer. Did Ryan forget how to pitch in 1987? No. We know that. His stats were terrific, except for w/L. Realistically he wasn't terribly high on win/loss over the course of his career (520ish?) Anyway, once again, wins tell you a part of the story, one chapter in a novel. You can't understand the ending of the story without that chapter to be sure but there's a lot more to the story than that one part. |
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| Author: | KDdidit [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Quintana's negative TWTW rubs off on his teammates and kills his run support. It's pretty simple. |
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| Author: | Nas [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
KDdidit wrote: Quintana's negative TWTW rubs off on his teammates and kills his run support. It's pretty simple. I can definitely see that. Nate Jones and Robertson have done their best to make sure that he doesn't get the win. |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
I still don't know who's arguing what, and I think it's because my brain's defense mechanism is kicking in to, sadly, prevent a massive brain aneurysm. Perhaps we need to expand the Community College coursework to include a few weeks on properly crafting a position paper. |
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| Author: | Jbi11s [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Terry's Peeps wrote: Back and better than ever.
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| Author: | Darkside [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Don Tiny wrote: I still don't know who's arguing what, and I think it's because my brain's defense mechanism is kicking in to, sadly, prevent a massive brain aneurysm. Perhaps we need to expand the Community College coursework to include a few weeks on properly crafting a position paper. This isn't a position paper bunt wad it's Internet nitwittery. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Nas wrote: leashyourkids wrote: Darkside wrote: leashyourkids wrote: The truth is this: Over a career, W/L is one of the best measures of success. However, it takes a very large sample size to be effective; therefore, it is not good if you are comparing spans of a year or less (and maybe even more than that). The need for a large sample size is also the reason the baseball playoffs are so random (eat it, Rick). Well, it tells you a lot about the pitcher and also quite a bit about the rest of his team. While I don't agree with JORR's POV entirely, I do have to say that a good pitcher is going to have a large enough sample and variance in teams over an entire career that it shouldn't matter and the W/L% will be reflective of how good they are. I would generally agree. As has been said MANY times Quintana is an outlier. He's finished in the bottom 10 in run support every year of his career. Half his games have been no decisions. Agreed. There will be outliers. |
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| Author: | Bagels [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Win/Loss Argument |
Don Tiny wrote: I still don't know who's arguing what that's exactly the way they've designed it |
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