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The Economy !!
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=121749		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  badrogue17 [ Fri May 29, 2020 7:36 pm ]
Post subject:  The Economy !!
Based on my drive home , restaurants are going to rebound just fine . Every patio I saw was full with smiling people enjoying being out again. McBrides burger joint was full ! Was awesome to see .
Author:  Antarctica [ Fri May 29, 2020 7:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
I dont know, we'll find out when people aren't getting $600 a week in bonus unemployment.
Author:  Cashman [ Fri May 29, 2020 9:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
badrogue17 wrote:
Based on my drive home , restaurants are going to rebound just fine . Every patio I saw was full with smiling people enjoying being out again. McBrides burger joint was full ! Was awesome to see .



Did you gauge what race the people were?
Author:  Pres-Elect FukNuggitt [ Sat May 30, 2020 4:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Antarctica wrote:
I dont know, we'll find out when people aren't getting $600 a week in bonus unemployment.

Some might have to resort to smoking some pole as trade, but money will change hands freely again my friend!
Author:  denisdman [ Sat May 30, 2020 7:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
badrogue17 wrote:
Based on my drive home , restaurants are going to rebound just fine . Every patio I saw was full with smiling people enjoying being out again. McBrides burger joint was full ! Was awesome to see .


I am of this belief as well, which probably explains the market rebound.
Author:  One Post [ Sat May 30, 2020 8:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.
Author:  long time guy [ Sat May 30, 2020 9:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Antarctica wrote:
I dont know, we'll find out when people aren't getting $600 a week in bonus unemployment.


Would you look at the hoping for Depressionphile as he faithfully clings to his economic doom and gloom argument.
Author:  denisdman [ Sat May 30, 2020 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.


Hospitality is going to take it on the chin for sure. Aggregate incomes will necessarily be down despite the squawking about people getting paid more not to work. That extra money only lasts so long.

But I see all the old faces at my favorite places. I heard a woman in the grocery tell another guy that her work called her back, and she starts next Monday. We aren’t headed back to 4% unemployment, but I think things will recover to reasonable levels pretty quickly.

I see a time of creative destruction.
Author:  One Post [ Sat May 30, 2020 9:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
denisdman wrote:
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.


Hospitality is going to take it on the chin for sure. Aggregate incomes will necessarily be down despite the squawking about people getting paid more not to work. That extra money only lasts so long.

But I see all the old faces at my favorite places. I heard a woman in the grocery tell another guy that her work called her back, and she starts next Monday. We aren’t headed back to 4% unemployment, but I think things will recover to reasonable levels pretty quickly.

I see a time of creative destruction.


The quoted has a bit of what I call “ We will be alright” bias. When someone says “we will be alright”, what they are saying most of the time is “I definitely will be alright, oh, and you will likely be alright also”.

The difference between definitely, and likely is a chasam. Denis, you will be alright and so will the people in your traditional circles, you just don’t interact enough with people who most definitely will not be alright.
Author:  Zippy-The-Pinhead [ Sat May 30, 2020 9:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
denisdman wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Based on my drive home , restaurants are going to rebound just fine . Every patio I saw was full with smiling people enjoying being out again. McBrides burger joint was full ! Was awesome to see .


I am of this belief as well, which probably explains the market rebound.

I hope you’re both right but at the risk of being labeled a buzzkill I suspect otherwise. I doubt many places can survive very long on patio service alone - especially with spaced out seating. How do you account for weather? How do you staff when there’s rain in the forecast? This is a nice change and given that it’s warm and sunny coupled with pent up demand of course they are jammed for the time being. However there’s still a sizable bit of the population that isn’t returning any time soon and that’s what is needed to sustain most of these places long term.
Author:  denisdman [ Sat May 30, 2020 10:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
One Post wrote:
denisdman wrote:
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.


Hospitality is going to take it on the chin for sure. Aggregate incomes will necessarily be down despite the squawking about people getting paid more not to work. That extra money only lasts so long.

But I see all the old faces at my favorite places. I heard a woman in the grocery tell another guy that her work called her back, and she starts next Monday. We aren’t headed back to 4% unemployment, but I think things will recover to reasonable levels pretty quickly.

I see a time of creative destruction.


The quoted has a bit of what I call “ We will be alright” bias. When someone says “we will be alright”, what they are saying most of the time is “I definitely will be alright, oh, and you will likely be alright also”.

The difference between definitely, and likely is a chasam. Denis, you will be alright and so will the people in your traditional circles, you just don’t interact enough with people who most definitely will not be alright.


It’s fair to say I will be alright.

I have a different view of the market because I interact with thousands of small businesses and nonprofits in the course of my employment as a business insurer. We are asking about their survival plans and reopening schedules. I also get a great view from sitting on conference calls with CFO’s.

And then I live in mainly blue collar communities, definitely up here in WI, but the Dundee area is decidedly blue collar. Outside of my professional circles, most of my interactions are with blue collar folks. The majority of my family is blue collar, six siblings.

I try to bring an even keeled perspective understanding that my personal situation is not reflective of the median/average American.
Author:  Regular Reader [ Sat May 30, 2020 10:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.

And the Rockets owner just had to borrow $290MM at 13% interest since his primary businesses are in oil and mainly recreation/hospitality, no?
Author:  denisdman [ Sat May 30, 2020 10:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Regular Reader wrote:
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.

And the Rockets owner just had to borrow $290MM at 13% interest since his primary businesses are in oil and mainly recreation/hospitality, no?


We’ve seen several business, many in hydrocarbons, hand over the business to creditors. But the business survives with a better capital structure and liquidity.

I saw several of the large retailers, Macys and Kohls for instance, were borrowing at above 8%. But now the malls are open again, so the pressure will start to diminish.
Author:  Brick [ Sat May 30, 2020 2:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.

Just like nursing homes, many of those restaurants had preexisting conditions. It's not like restaurants didn't close all the time prior to January.
Author:  Pres-Elect FukNuggitt [ Sat May 30, 2020 3:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
The world - and especially the USA - will be just fine.

We won't be growing our own food or hunting and trapping anytime soon.

Its time we had our poorest people doing our shittiest work, instead of having another country's poorest people doing our shittiest work.
Author:  Darkside [ Sat May 30, 2020 5:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
FukNuggitt wrote:
We won't be growing our own food or hunting and trapping anytime soon..

Speak for yourself
Author:  blackhawksfan [ Sat May 30, 2020 6:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
What happens when people don't get rehired, the +600 ends, and mortgage forbearance ends? The govt is backstopping the whole economy. Unless there is such a thing as a "free lunch" I don't see how this ends well.
Author:  Drunk Squirrel [ Sat May 30, 2020 6:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Darkside wrote:
FukNuggitt wrote:
We won't be growing our own food or hunting and trapping anytime soon..

Speak for yourself



What the hell else am I going to do then? Heck in last 24 hours I would have had good shots at 5 deer and a coyote.. that magnificent bastard followed me for hours today as I cut hay.
Author:  IkeSouth [ Sat May 30, 2020 6:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.


That's why I don't understand how the local governments can shut businesses down when they have no way to provide help. Even at the state level it makes little sense.
Author:  Darkside [ Sat May 30, 2020 6:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Drunk Squirrel wrote:
Darkside wrote:
FukNuggitt wrote:
We won't be growing our own food or hunting and trapping anytime soon..

Speak for yourself



What the hell else am I going to do then? Heck in last 24 hours I would have had good shots at 5 deer and a coyote.. that magnificent bastard followed me for hours today as I cut hay.

I hate when coyotes do that. Had one walk right behind me about 10 yards away, followed me from a cabin aboit 300 yards to my tree stand. When I told my buddy who owns the property he was pissed I didn't kill it. They been killing all his pheasants and rabbits
Author:  Hussra [ Sat May 30, 2020 7:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
blackhawksfan wrote:
What happens when people don't get rehired, the +600 ends, and mortgage forbearance ends? The govt is backstopping the whole economy. Unless there is such a thing as a "free lunch" I don't see how this ends well.



jack's got your back:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/angelauyeu ... 695cff3f43


if you can play baseball, this guy'll help out:

https://www.kxnet.com/sports/dodgers-da ... guers-pay/
Author:  Drunk Squirrel [ Sat May 30, 2020 7:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Darkside wrote:
Drunk Squirrel wrote:
Darkside wrote:
FukNuggitt wrote:
We won't be growing our own food or hunting and trapping anytime soon..

Speak for yourself



What the hell else am I going to do then? Heck in last 24 hours I would have had good shots at 5 deer and a coyote.. that magnificent bastard followed me for hours today as I cut hay.

I hate when coyotes do that. Had one walk right behind me about 10 yards away, followed me from a cabin aboit 300 yards to my tree stand. When I told my buddy who owns the property he was pissed I didn't kill it. They been killing all his pheasants and rabbits



It was kind of fun to watch it. Obviously a young dog. I took it as one of the things I’m grateful for seeing because of what I do. Have watched thousands of snow geese descend on the farm, took pictures of a flock of a 100 sandhill cranes that overnighted on one of pastures. I dunno.. it’s nice to have the quiet, peaceful experiences. Best part of deer hunting for me to be honest (goose too for that matter.)

I’ve had the coyote encounter :lol: on foot before. Think it was September 12th of 2001 and I was checking on a sick cow. Both the yote and I shared the same wtf expression as we saw each other from about 15 yards away at sunrise. This was a bit different, as he was just strolling around looking for mice. At one moment he was about 15 yards away sitting kinda awkwardly and staring T tractor oddly.. took me about second or two to realize that he was fertilizing the field :lol:

I worry that there is a coyote message bored that he is posting on asking if anyone had ever shit in drunk squirrel’s hay.
Author:  Seacrest [ Sat May 30, 2020 7:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Regular Reader wrote:
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.

And the Rockets owner just had to borrow $290MM at 13% interest since his primary businesses are in oil and mainly recreation/hospitality, no?


13%??

JORR and his partner?
Author:  Regular Reader [ Sat May 30, 2020 8:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Seacrest wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
One Post wrote:
Texas has been “open” for a month. Every day there are restaurants announcing Covid closures. Every day.

These restaurants are closing during a time of massive government assistance. Anyone who thinks a restaurant can operate for any duration at 25 or 50 percent capacity has no idea how that industry works.

When summer rolls around, absent more government aid, it will get pretty ugly.

And the Rockets owner just had to borrow $290MM at 13% interest since his primary businesses are in oil and mainly recreation/hospitality, no?


13%??

JORR and his partner?

Kinda makes one wonder...
Author:  SpiralStairs [ Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Economy !!
Good news guys. Despite the balcks best efforts the line is going up again!

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/busines ... r/2281660/
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