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Greek Deal https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=67574 |
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Author: | bigfan [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:08 pm ] |
Post subject: | Greek Deal |
RPB, you sleeping on this one????? |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:19 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
Nothing if official yet, the press conference on how long and hard Greece will be totally fucked for has been pushed back. Not the first time this has happened. How much does the European Union and even the Eurozone have left? Italy, Portugal, Spain are next on the docket....and those are going to hurt and hurt bad. If a deal does actually get done (how long has this musical chairs game been going on?) it will be fantasy and not achievable. I also wonder how much sovereignty Greece has to give up in exchange for whatever "deal" they get. Should have taken Icelands lead and told the banks to go and get fucked. Oh well. http://video.consilium.europa.eu/ |
Author: | bigfan [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:33 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
So every trader in the world waiting for this moment over the past 2-3 weeks doesn't know shit, but SOMEGUY on the CSFMB is telling everyone to hold on. What time are you on CNCBC tomorrow? Bought 1.31367 Sold 1.32787 Yes, I know Portugal and Spain are next up. |
Author: | HOVA [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:35 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
Improves Obama's chances of getting reelected. |
Author: | jimmypasta [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:37 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
Author: | HOVA [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:42 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
Greek deal is good for everyone. Things are going to turn around in the next few years. |
Author: | Colonel Angus [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:43 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
I thought this was going to be about butt sex, but then I noticed KS didn't start the thread. |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:50 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
HOVA wrote: Greek deal is good for everyone. Things are going to turn around in the next few years. Not the Greeks and not the EU when everyone finally realizes that all this did was kick the can down the road some more. I hope I'm wrong but Greece is to far beyond fucked at all levels for this to magically save the world. In my eyes this lets the music play a bit longer before everyone needs to find a chair. I'm heartened to see that some debt will actually be written down and a 'haircut' will be taken by some but structurally Greece is screwed. All this is my opinion of course. Things will really get interesting when the big boys need a bailout, but I'll defer to BigFan on that one as the finance ministers are on the phone with him as we speak. And again, I will believe a deal is done when there is ink on the paper...we've seen this story to many times before. |
Author: | bigfan [ Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:41 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
SomeGuy wrote: HOVA wrote: Greek deal is good for everyone. Things are going to turn around in the next few years. Not the Greeks and not the EU when everyone finally realizes that all this did was kick the can down the road some more. I hope I'm wrong but Greece is to far beyond fucked at all levels for this to magically save the world. In my eyes this lets the music play a bit longer before everyone needs to find a chair. I'm heartened to see that some debt will actually be written down and a 'haircut' will be taken by some but structurally Greece is screwed. All this is my opinion of course. Things will really get interesting when the big boys need a bailout, but I'll defer to BigFan on that one as the finance ministers are on the phone with him as we speak. And again, I will believe a deal is done when there is ink on the paper...we've seen this story to many times before. Tough to read all your great posts as I am counting my money from last night. |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:44 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
bigfan wrote: SomeGuy wrote: HOVA wrote: Greek deal is good for everyone. Things are going to turn around in the next few years. Not the Greeks and not the EU when everyone finally realizes that all this did was kick the can down the road some more. I hope I'm wrong but Greece is to far beyond fucked at all levels for this to magically save the world. In my eyes this lets the music play a bit longer before everyone needs to find a chair. I'm heartened to see that some debt will actually be written down and a 'haircut' will be taken by some but structurally Greece is screwed. All this is my opinion of course. Things will really get interesting when the big boys need a bailout, but I'll defer to BigFan on that one as the finance ministers are on the phone with him as we speak. And again, I will believe a deal is done when there is ink on the paper...we've seen this story to many times before. Tough to read all your great posts as I am counting my money from last night. I was speaking about the larger issues and I don't remember mentioning BigFan's FX trading....oh well. Plenty of volatility ahead so I'm sure you will continue to make some decent scratch. |
Author: | rogers park bryan [ Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:47 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
bigfan wrote: RPB, you sleeping on this one????? Yes, literally. Markets were closed or on shortened sessions yesterday and someone else worked a holiday for once. |
Author: | rogers park bryan [ Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:50 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
FWIW, SomeGuy's comments/skepticism is shared by most of the analysts I hear. |
Author: | bigfan [ Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:22 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
rogers park bryan wrote: FWIW, SomeGuy's comments/skepticism is shared by most of the analysts I hear. Yes, I know....I dont think it is chance happening that 'Kick the can down the road" was sued by Someguy and most analyst I read. So his "original thoughts" dont deserve the credit he thinks he should get. But as you know, the immediate news is what make the markets move, which was all I cared about at that time. And you know some fallback is always going to exist. Nothing better than riding the wave for 2 or 3 days. For the long term, there will always be questions, the world will never be the same. Too much information, too many people looking months and years ahead, the questions are now always going to be part of the $$$ world and some % of that risk will be built into all deals and trading. Listening to Someguy was like listening to a WSCR "Basketball Expert" telling me about D Rose's injuries and his opinions. A guy who never played basketball and has no medical training (Unless you discount Danny B), tryign to explain to me how many minutes he should play. |
Author: | bigfan [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:35 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
$1.33767 today this kicking the can thing is really working out well. |
Author: | NearWessSideHussra [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:52 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
The total value of this latest round of bail-and-buy outs totals over $300 billion. Greece's population is about 10 mil. And the Euros already tossed the greeks about $110 billion over the last year or so. How the hell did these kidfuckers* run up so much debt that they need tens of thousands of dollars every few months per mouth breathing citizen just to stay afloat. And that's with the creditors taking a 30%+ haircut. *apparently there are just as many goats as greeks in greece. |
Author: | bigfan [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:58 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
The only people that work are the few that own bar/restaurants, other than that everyone was employed by the government. That was a huge part of the deal, no more do nothing and get paid government jobs. Think they cut 15-25K government jobs. |
Author: | NearWessSideHussra [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:05 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
Ah, so the lenders in the Greek clusterfuck were underwriting debt to a group people unlikely to ever be able to pay it back, sorta like the sub-prime mortgage market in the US a few years back. Looks like in both cases the lenders were correct to assume governments would bail their asses out when their bad lending practices caught up with them. privatize the profits, socialize the losses. |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:42 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
There is a 10 page sustainability report floating around, it shows that this whole disaster isn't all that sustainable. Greece needs to actually grow its economy at the same time that it's in recession and starting deep austerity measures +, as BigFan noted, cutting govt. employees as well. That doesn't add up, not even close. Add in the possibility of general strikes and civil unrest and this really is 'kicking the can down the road'. And then it's on to the real problems with the bigger boys. The bailout is contigent on Greece have a 120% debt-GDP ration by 2020, which is the absolute maximum it can sustain, any higher and it would be game-over. And BigFan, why the weird hostility and mocking undertones in your responses to me? I've followed this stuff for quite some time and it doesn't take a seasoned financial mind to see what's happening and why, it's simple math. I never asked any "credit" for it nor have I claimed to be an expert either so your response is all the stranger. And yes, this is kicking the can down the road as it doesn't solve any of the underlying issues. The money you made, and bragged about making (on the internet no-less which is a bit strange), is great but that doesn't really have much to do with how this cluster-fuck is still a cluster-fuck. I apologize for taking interest in world events, reading about those things that interest me,trying to be informed and enjoying the discussion of said things. Don't worry, I'll see everyone in a week. |
Author: | bigfan [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:34 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
SomeGuy wrote: And BigFan, why the weird hostility and mocking undertones in your responses to me? Don't think I had any UNDERTONES, I think I was rather direct in saying you got the phrase 'Kick the Can down the road" from this 10 page report or another source . As far as 'Weird" hostility, I don't think I had any towards you, I was happy to have ridden this wave for about 200 PIP's over the past 2 days. But for you , of all people to say WEIRD HOSTILITY, have you read your own posts lately???? Have you read what you read about me having some "weird" man love for M&H? I think that pretty much is the very definition of "WEIRD HOSTILITY" and I will wait until 2020 to see if your 10 page report is correct. Sell the rumor |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:48 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
bigfan wrote: SomeGuy wrote: And BigFan, why the weird hostility and mocking undertones in your responses to me? Don't think I had any UNDERTONES, I think I was rather direct in saying you got the phrase 'Kick the Can down the road" from this 10 page report or another source . As far as 'Weird" hostility, I don't think I had any towards you, I was happy to have ridden this wave for about 200 PIP's over the past 2 days. But for you , of all people to say WEIRD HOSTILITY, have you read your own posts lately???? Have you read what you read about me having some "weird" man love for M&H? I think that pretty much is the very definition of "WEIRD HOSTILITY" and I will wait until 2020 to see if your 10 page report is correct. Sell the rumor Alright, I gotcha'. As for your man love for M&H, well, that's incorrect because I was quite clear in saying that you had "man love" for Mully and only Mully. And "Kick the Can Down the Road" isn't a new saying, it's quite old and by old I mean way the fuck back in time. It just happens to fit the current situation quite nicely. If that's what you were fixated on, well, whatever. |
Author: | bigfan [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:26 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
So you and 3 other analysts just happen to use "Kick the can down the road" as an analogy for the Greek debt deal? |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:46 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
bigfan wrote: So you and 3 other analysts just happen to use "Kick the can down the road" as an analogy for the Greek debt deal? |
Author: | NearWessSideHussra [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:03 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
Giving this thread a dead cat bounce: Quote: Marketplace Radio took a quick look the other day at the suddenly ubiquitous phrase “to kick the can down the road.” That’s become the de rigueur shorthand for describing how central banks and legislators around the world are handling the credit crisis: applying quick cosmetic fixes that delay the inevitable pain of writing down unsustainable debts. Lexicographer Barry Popik traced the recent history of the phrase last year and found that it started to turn up in earnest during the 1980s. In 2003, the late William Safire of the New York Times pointed out that the game of “kick the can” has been around forever and that television anchorman Jim Lehrer even published a novel by that title in 1988. Google Insights for Search shows the phrase getting a huge surge in usage in June 2011, around the time Congress got dithering in earnest over extending the U.S. debt ceiling. It dropped off later in the summer but has taken two more recent spikes, thanks to the latest rounds of can-kicking in Europe. http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2011/1 ... -the-road/ |
Author: | SomeGuy [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:05 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
NearWessSideHussra wrote: Giving this thread a dead cat bounce: Quote: Marketplace Radio took a quick look the other day at the suddenly ubiquitous phrase “to kick the can down the road.” That’s become the de rigueur shorthand for describing how central banks and legislators around the world are handling the credit crisis: applying quick cosmetic fixes that delay the inevitable pain of writing down unsustainable debts. Lexicographer Barry Popik traced the recent history of the phrase last year and found that it started to turn up in earnest during the 1980s. In 2003, the late William Safire of the New York Times pointed out that the game of “kick the can” has been around forever and that television anchorman Jim Lehrer even published a novel by that title in 1988. Google Insights for Search shows the phrase getting a huge surge in usage in June 2011, around the time Congress got dithering in earnest over extending the U.S. debt ceiling. It dropped off later in the summer but has taken two more recent spikes, thanks to the latest rounds of can-kicking in Europe. http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2011/1 ... -the-road/ That's interesting. It fits, though. And where can I apply to be a Lexicographer? |
Author: | NearWessSideHussra [ Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:13 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
SomeGuy wrote: It fits, though. And where can I apply to be a Lexicographer? Freddie Mac. Yeah, I agree the phrase is getting used in these similar but geographically and temporally diffuse situations because it fits. If the phrase fits.. Odd thing to beef about. Slow time for sports talk, I guess. |
Author: | bigfan [ Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:01 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Greek Deal |
Consider can kicked! |
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