My previews have trended negative thus far, which is mostly by accident. Michigan is probably on the rebound; Penn State is always a threat; Northwestern is at least a mini success story after the miserable decades they had prior to 1995. Had I been more determined to write about those programs in a more positive bent, I almost certainly could have managed just fine; there are two sides to every story.

Well, almost every story. It’s tough to spin this one:

MINNESOTA +4 at MID TENN STATE U

For those of you unaccustomed to the gambling world, this means that Minnesota is a four point underdog to a Sun Belt team in their opening game. Now, the caveats: the home team generally has a three point advantage, meaning that the teams are theoretically only a point apart on a neutral field. I could make a plausible argument, with the disaster that is currently occurring on Rocky Top and the perpetual lulziness that is Vanderbilt that Middle Tennessee State University (preseason favorites in the Sun Belt) might be the best team in the state. Regardless, the point stands: Minnesota would be the underdog on a neutral field against a Sun Belt team.

What went wrong? Minnesota was a perpetually decent program under Glen Mason, finishing on the fringes of the Top 25 and surprising the powers of the Big Ten along the way from time to time. After three years of the Tim Brewster experiment, the team has a pair of 6-7 seasons culminating in Insight Bowl losses. Their best victory in that period was their win over Northwestern last season in the first week of the Big 10 schedule; no disrespect to Northwestern, but this isn’t what you would call a “signature win” under ordinary circumstances.

Yet even after star wide receiver Eric Decker was injured, Minnesota alternated between the sublime and the pathetic. They scored a total of seven points against Penn State and Ohio State, then broke out for 42 in a must-win game against Michigan State and 32 points in a loss against Illinois. They wouldn’t score 32 points in their final three games, with a 16-13 win against South Dakota State(!!), 12-0 shutout at the hands of Iowa, and a 14-13 loss to Iowa State in their bowl game. Even in the early part of the season, before Decker’s injury took its toll, Minnesota was inconsistent at best—they squeaked by lousy Syracuse 23-20 in overtime, then beat a solid Air Force team by a touchdown, then hung tough against Cal.

After the disappointing finish, Tim Brewster finds himself on perhaps the hottest seat in the Big Ten this side of Champaign. For all the talk of Brewster’s recruiting talent—and 2008 was a solid year for him—many of those recruits have been criminally underutilized. Take, for example, Marqueis Gray, the highly touted athlete that was mainly used to run into the offensive line, repeatedly, at QB.

Things were supposed to be different by this point. Brewster has had four years to get his recruits into his system. Adam Weber, who had a promising 2008 campaign at QB, is now a senior. TCF Stadium, which just opened last year, is by all accounts gorgeous, and Minnesota can finally play its home games on campus. The Gophers renaissance was supposed to be upon us.

Instead, Minnesota had proven both bad and unlucky. They go to Middle Tennessee just at the time the Sun Belt program is peaking. Northern Illinois, one of the favorites in the MAC conference, travels to Minnesota Stadium as well. Oh, and so does USC. As for the conference schedule, all of the “no f’ing way” games come at home, as Minnesota plays Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa in Minneapolis. The plausible victories will have to come on the road, either at Purdue, at Michigan State, or at Illinois. If Minnesota can’t get past Northwestern at home, 0-8 in conference is a real possibility, and 0-11 against FBS competition could happen.

Minnesota probably steals a game somewhere; best bet is NIU at home, with Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, Penn State, and @Illinois all plausible candidates for wins as well. That’s five, leaving Minnesota home four bowl season and under .500 once again. The optimistic story? At least they get to redo the coaching search, starting in December.

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Fire Phil Emery

I'm absolutely stunned with the way Weber has regressed. However, I'm confident that he has the skills/talents to do well without Decker. Two years ago, I thought Weber might have NFL potential. He's really got to light it up to make that happen. And I'm not sure he has the right tools around him this year to make that happen.

I love these previews.

I think this was one was spot on too. I liked the seemingly subtle reference to the past history of many of those recruits from that class.

The story out of Purdue when he was being recruited was that Purdue wanted him but refused to offer to let him start at QB. This is actually pretty telling since Purdue has like 7 players currently on the roster who were told they could come here and play QB. He was told that there would be an immediate position switch. It sounds like this was the case at a lot of schools. Minnesota was the only major school to offer him a chance to play QB and at least so far it seems like QB is not the right fit for him. I believe Indiana was unwilling to offer him a spot at QB and this was with the success of a previous player from the same situation who came to Indiana in Kellen Lewis(transferred with a drug problem*allegedly*).

Ever since I heard about his recruitment I've been very interested to see if everyone was wrong or if he wasn't a Big Ten QB. This year should really answer that question.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

That is true. That's a nice on-campus facility.

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My Maserati does 186.

Weber did have an injury to his non-throwing shoulder which impacted him last year but the bigger loss for him was when Decker went down. With Decker in the lineup, he could toss the ball into traffic and Decker would go up and get it. None of the other WRs had that kind of talent. Toss in the fact that it was the 3rd OC under Brewster in 3 years and that's a recipe for disaster.

As for Gray, I just don't see how he improves this year with the dual QB thing like last year. It just doesn't work.

Probably best left for your Illini preview, but barring a 1 or 2 win season which I think is unlikely, Zook is almost certain to get 2 years. The new coordinators are on 2-year deals and you have to believe they were assured 2 years to get things righted.

Also, Guenther is almost certain to return as well.

And, how dare you disrespect NIU like you have.

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My Maserati does 186.

I agree with you, but I felt that not including that line about Champaign would induce Zook vs. Brewster talk I wasn't dying to get into yet.

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Fire Phil Emery

I am suprised Irish Boy that you think Brewster is on the hot seat, he gets the team to bowl games and does get some high name players at Minnesota, like Decker and Gray. I think the Rodriguez has the hottest seat in the Big 10, followed by Zook and Lynch at IU.

Minnesota has a chance at 6 wins, but no more, and with the Big 10 having like 8 bowl spots, they would go, probably Little Caesar's bowl.

Brewster's seat is way, WAY hotter than Rodriguez. It goes something like Brewster, Zook/Lynch, then Rich Rod.

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Fire Phil Emery

From day one Brewster has come across as more of a used car salesman than a coach. Can someone tell me the circumstances surrounding Glenn Mason's departure? I recall him having a pretty good tenure with the Golden Gophers. I thought he was a pretty good coach.

The Texas Tech Insight Bowl game where TT came back from 31 points down really did him in. That, and the team seemed stuck at 6-7 wins. They'll be lucky to hit that this year.

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Fire Phil Emery

That's kinda what I thought. I think Minnesota got delusions of grandeur that they could become a premiere Big 10 team... kinda what Iowa is going through now. I'm not saying they can't, but its that kinda thought process that causes coaches to be thrown out for one or two mediocre seasons. Sometimes you have to think a little bit longer term.

There were some pretty strong Minnesota teams, especially with Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney. They had a few meltdowns like that which kept them from getting over the top. It was one of those "hit a home run or fail spectacularly" type moves, and Brewster had been the guy that recruited Vince Young. But it hasn't gone well, obviously. We'll see what direction they go next year.

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Fire Phil Emery

Any coach who doesn't get to a New Year's Day bowl at least once every four years should be on the hot seat regardless of the historical level of success of the program. This is especially true going forward given how easy it is going to be with the new Big Ten bowl alignment.

Finishing 7th in the conference and going to some bowl that no one cares about is like making the NIT in basketball. It really shouldn't help keep your job more secure.

I can definitely see being a Minnesota fan and wanting to see something this year or wanting him gone. I think the case is stronger for getting rid of Zook even with his Rose Bowl appearance.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

There is a whole night and day difference between Iowa and Minnesota. Kirk has enough in bank to weather some bad years. He'll leave on his own terms. Minnesota on the other hand gets an itchy trigger finger with their coaches. I full expect Brewster to be launched with another <500 year.

Tell me that after a couple 3-9 seasons.

Well, years 1 and 2 were pretty bad though I remember Iowa beating a fairly highly rated NU team in year 2.

New coaches are given a pass in the first couple years... you know that, Vince. You know how much I like Ferentz. But Iowa isn't NU. We'll keep a guy around because we think he is a good guy (e.g., Carmody). And I'm not saying that is a good thing (read: I wanna fire Carmody).

Iowa definitely thinks of itself as a national title contender every year, and I don't think Ferentz has achieved the Joe Pa-level of status in Iowa where he can leave on his own terms no matter what. But I hear you that his leash is much longer than it was.

Just bumping this to give Irish Boy credit, after today that was probably the end to Minnesot'a bowl hopes unless they pull off a big upset and Michigan looks like it may be on to a great season, better than I thought they would do.

It seems really early, but this weekend is a must-win for Minnesota against Northern Illinois. Starting 1-3 with a Big Ten schedule coming up would basically mean your bowl hopes are completely gone. 4-4 would still be tough but 5-3 would be almost impossible given the problem that the team isn't very good.

It's also the best chance for the MAC to get a win over the Big Ten this year. It hasn't happened yet. Toledo will give Purdue a tough game I think especially if Marve is limited. Who knows about Michigan. Akron is terrible. A good sleeper pick would be CMU over Northwestern but I don't think CMU gets the luxury of surprising teams any more since they've been the best in the MAC for a while now.

Northern Illinois is at least equal to Minnesota and probably better.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I read somewhere that former Kansas coach Mark Mangino was doing some things around the Minnesota campus, I think collegefootballtalk.com is where I got it.

I'm certain it involved eating.

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Ugly situation with Stoudermire... according to his facebook page he's leaving Minny to go somewhere where he is appreciated.

http://www.twincities.com/gophersfootball/ci_16153840?nclick_check=1&_requestid=22689956