I agree with Brick. The SOS will do them in once they get to playing in the WAC. Oregon State is the only other team worth a damn on their schedule. The BCS will pull a 1 or 2 loss team from the SEC before they sniff a team from the WAC or MWC.

Edit-exactly what Brick's response was.

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My point is that considerations are not relevant in this prediction. BCS rankings are.

Yes, the SEC and ACC have a better SOS rating than the WAC does. This is a big part of the algorithm that is used for the BCS rankings.

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Its all going to depend on who is undefeated. If 2 undefeated teams from legit conferences, then they won't get in. If you have only 1 undefeated team from a legit conference in addition to Boise, then I can see them in the title game.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

This.

It's still mostly a human decided ranking. Boise could be #1 in the computers and still not make it.
Virtually any of the top 15 will have a significantly stronger resume even with one loss. Some, such as Miami, will have a stronger resume even with two losses.

College football is not a single elimination tournament. The goal is to get the best two teams. Boise is going to be at best 2-0 against the top 25. Miami may be 5-1 or even 4-2 and it will be more impressive.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I agree with everything you've said and still think they will end up as BCS #2 (barring a loss to Oregon State).

I feel like I'm going ES here, but if the AP and the coaches want an undefeated Boise in the title game ahead of 1 loss teams, Boise will be in there. I mean the AP aleady had Boise ranked #3 and the coaches had them #5 in the preseason so AP-wise they're already ranked higher than every 0 loss team except for Ohio State and Alabama. I don't think a one-loss Ohio State gets in ahead of an undefeated Boise, but I do think Alabama would, everybody else is already behind Boise, SOS or not.

Obviously as the end of the year approaches the voters may start feeling uncomfortable with the idea of Boise in the title game and bail on them, but I think it would be more from the idea of a "BCS buster" in the title game than saying Boise wasn't good enough. Heck BSU went from 1 to 8 first place votes this week (more than Ohio State has) in the AP poll and jumped Texas and and Florida in the coaches poll. Are the coaches and AP going to stick to their guns as the year goes on?

When other teams beat better teams they can expect the same type of jump. It's not like the other teams lost. Boise will drop even while not losing simply because they didn't beat a very good team while another team did beat a very good team.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I'll go ES obvious again, but I still think it's going to be harder to pry them loose when they start at 3 than when they've started at 14, others receiving votes, and 24.

That win just lost some luster.

Boise State's strength of schedule just got bent over and abused.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

The biggest loser of the weekend was Bosie State and they didn't even play.

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It has begun and it's the most fair thing to do. In fact, an undefeated TCU should jump Boise also eventually. There is even a case that Nebraska/Oklahoma should too once they have a better resume.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

It has begun and it's the most fair thing to do. In fact, an undefeated TCU should jump Boise also eventually. There is even a case that Nebraska/Oklahoma should too once they have a better resume.[/quote]

Which is why college football is a joke.

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The thing is though that the team that jumped Boise State deserved to because even right now they have a stronger resume. TCU will do the same and if they go undefeated will have a much stronger resume also. Nebraska/Oklahoma probably won't, but that will mostly be because of the "Boise State Excuse".

The "Boise State Excuse" is that BSU shouldn't be penalized for any incredibly weak schedule because they couldn't find anyone to play them(questionable stance at best this year) and instead they should penalize other schools who beat better competition in more games because BSU couldn't find anyone to play them.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Here is the funny thing about the BCS.

It was originally designed(in my opinion) to take out the biases inherent in voting by humans and give an unbiased rating.

The computers hate Boise State much worse than the big meanies in college football who won't give them a chance.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5697573

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

This is true, I remember talking with my grad adviser who has quite the statistical mind and he had a rather convincing argument that the BCS formula should use the polls less than it did at the time, which I believe is less than now because the polls are problematic due to human voting unless the people voting have seen a good chunk of the 50 plus division 1 games.

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