great odds on providence. followed them all year...they almost always play to the level of competition, which is very dangerous. seen them equal to depaul, xavier and butler, but also equal to a uconn/villanova. some games they tune out on defense...but bynum, when he gets hot, look out.

i like houston, played their conference all year. to be honest, they need a full squad to deserve the lower odds. i know sampson is a lightening rod, but you can't say houston will get outcoached. i would have taken memphis st's odds., despite betting against them yesterday.

so ISU and USC don't impress you over the past few weeks, but LSU did? Besides losing just about every big game they played they also fired their coach a few days ago (that last part might actually help though).

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being impressed by lsu and/or miami fl...that's not the hypothesis brought forward. iowa st. is a small team that can't rebound. they rely on 3s and defense. even when you play great defense and force bad shots...when you can't clean up the defensive boards..easy put-backs for the opponent. constant back-breakers. kansas st and bruce weber were basically the same team with better 3 shooters and they crashed out to a mediocre west virginia side in the big 12 tournament. unless you shoot at a very high percentage...

iowa state lost at home by nearly 20 points to a young oklahoma st. team. this was maybe 10 days ago. iowa state lost to texas tech by 31 points at a neutral site a few days ago. outrebounded in both games by nearly double.

of course i was looking to see who they would play and likely take that team. maybe iowa st. shoots 3s at a 45% clip and shoots 54% for the game and wins. maybe. maybe lsu shoots 39% but gets 34 2nd chance points and wins?

i could be wrong, but that's one game i have circled.

I can understand about ISU but sometimes those are the teams that surprise. LSU has disappointed me too many times to believe they can win. Seems like an easy upset but who knows because LSU is probably more talented across the board. It’s about executing. Count me in, though, to believing the coach firing would actually help them.

Really like Tenn.

Kentucky vs Purdue? I would be cheering for the Boilers in that match up. Fuck Kentucky.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

I agree, Will Wade is a terrible coach and the team might get a boost from him not being there.

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anyone find the NIT interesting? more investing opportunities.

washington st. and colorado stick out as plays for tomorrow.

The challenge with the NIT is always - are teams all in to play or just going through the motions?

I have put a highlight on that Oklahoma v Missouri State game.

Missouri State has NBA talent at possibly two positions. They are rugged defensively. I think they get up for this game against the big boys and I see Oklahoma in a let down spot as I heard lots of bitching they didn't make the tourney (with 15 losses)

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

i like the reasoning....too bad it's not at a neutral site. if it's ultra-low scoring, missouri st. getting 6 is like them getting 9.

Oklahoma is also a defensive minded team, as that is Moser's style. MSU is familiar with Moser's system after facing him 2+ times per year while he was at Loyola.

MSU is well rested, having had 1.5 weeks off after their tournament. Oklahoma was playing tough games four days ago.

I think both teams are NCAA Tournament level talent.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Any thoughts on Vandy v Belmont. Battle of Nashville teams and I would think the little brother will be geared up.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

you would know more about this than me, i'd be lying if i offered an opinion on belmont. i'm sure scottie pippen will be at the game.

my plays tonight are the favorites, all at home in NIT style. vcu, colorado and wash. st. not real big spreads at all...if princeton's 4 6'5 white guys who fire 3s get hot, may have a problem with vcu. i watched princeton on sat & sun and they didn't impress me. yale made some shots out of their asses...princeton really should have defeated them. vcu at home is a different animal than the ivy league tournie.

i like wash. st. because i like their guards..they play big minutes and they MAKE THEIR FREE THROWS. watched wash. st 5-6 times this year. santa clara is decent, but over 40 minutes at wash. st., i don't see them covering. 20 minute game? they could easily cover.

good luck on your plays.

What are the first four moves tonight?

I really like Indiana -4 if you can find it - it's up to 4.5 now on barstool.

The other game kinda stinks. I just can't depend on either directional Texas team to cover. I watched TAM-CC on Saturday night and they looked terrible - just were better than the other team. Texas Southern can't hit free throws (they are around 65%) so if this game gets down to that, they will have trouble covering the 3.5.

Dont forget the NIT games!

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On COlorado - Bonnies will be playing at 11 PM body clock - not much more analysis needed.

no CFMB MM this year? I want to see if Frank can get over the hump this year. The sentimental favorite. He's like the Brooklyn Dodgers of the 1950s.

Changing it up this year, instead of the annual dick-sucking competition: March Badness. You vote for which poster is worse. And the winner at the end is rewarded with a suspension from CFMB until the end of the year and an Aldi bag to carry their shitty posts home with them.

yes...you're right. some people may know, but most of us don't. i didn't see the colorado x st. bonnies game, i know colorado was up at the half, not sure what happened in the 2nd half.

i did get vcu and wash. st., so, not a bad day. i'll wait until late morning to see if there are any wednesday plays.

i'm interested in a few college games today. looking at a teaser; playing miss st plus more points away to virginia and wake forest shaving some points off their game with towson st. will probably play smu minus the points and maybe ND. rutgers is getting a lot of love as a 'giant-killer'. ND is no giant. rutgers beating penn st. by 1 point in their home big 10 finale, must have made rutgers an opening favorite against ND. ND is now a tiny favorite.

I read somewhere that the under 1H in first round games, not including 1-3 seeds, has hit at something like 80% over the last few years. I blindly followed that yesterday in IU WY and it hit easily. Doing it again today for ND Rut.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

I like Bryant moneyline in the 16/16 matchup. Bryant plays with a ton of pace and will force the action against Wright State - Wright State is not good handling dribble penetration and that's what Bryant loves to do. Wright State will struggle to score if bryant reverts to zones as well as it takes away Wright State;'s best scorer.

We ran our staistical analysis this morning like we do every year, it gets better every year but no where near great.
We use two different decision rules and this is what it gave us
the more liberal rule: Final four: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Villanova, and Auburn With Kentucky beating Auburn. The 'Cinderella' team they liked was UAB, sorry Illini people
The more conservative rule Final Four: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arizona, Auburn with Arizona beating Gonzaga. This Cinderella team was Richmond, sorry Iowa people

Other trends: HATED the big ten, no big ten teams past the sweet sixteen for either analysis
This is also the year where team rankings had the widest disparity between RPI, Sagarin, and ELO that we have ever seen, my favorite example is RPI has St. Mary's in the top ten everyone else significantly lower.

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another excellent day. nardi, hope you were still on the bandwagon. miss st., wake forest, notre dame, won a teaser with smu by 1 point. took florida (i know i didn't say florida prior to the fact) in 2 teasers. excellent day. also, good nba day - kudos to philly, charlotte, knicks, minnesota, utah (2 teasers). i lost washington and split on the clippers.

we'll see how it looks and feels tomorrow. hope everyone is making money.

Instant classic

ND vs Rutgers.

ND wins 89-87 in 2OT.

Rutgers had some unbelievable 3's to take the lead in the last minute of the first OT

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my picks suck.

In one bracket I have Zags over Tennessee with Auburn and Kentucky.

In the other one I have Zags over Arizona with Kansas and Purdon't.

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I'm already a Maroon. UofC, baby.

I look fantastic in that dark purple hoodie.

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You know me like that.

Following this today but I’m following FD predictions so I had to take some parlay insurance just in case.

I'm ready to be disappointed. Purdue hasn't shot well for like a month. I don't know if they can turn it around.

My big upset pick is Colgate over Wisconsin. Colgate has like one loss in the last twenty games and can easily keep it close with Wisconsin's style of trying to win games 68-62.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

providence scares me, because they almost always play to the level of competition. i will still take them. i also like memphis st., though i've seen that many experts have circled the boise st. x memphis game and predict boise st will stifle memphis. hmmm. the memphis st of 3 months ago, yes. today's memphis st. is much better.

going to play those 2. in a teaser together and each straight up.

will probably play murray st. tonight...will definitely play sleepy arkansas. arkansas thrives as a dog, they went to alabama and tennesse and and had to fight back from being down 12 and 23 points, just to lose by 1 to alabama 4 to tennessee in tennessee. arkansas paid for the slow start as a favorite against texas a&m last sat. arkansas is a favorite here again and not sure if they can recover from another sleepy start of being down 9-12 points early. don't see vermont with that in them. going to play arkansas.

good luck to all.