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| Let's try it again; predicting the NCAA tournament https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=101&t=77799 |
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| Author: | Psycory [ Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Let's try it again; predicting the NCAA tournament |
A grad school friend and I do it every year, but in a couple of dollars and put it in my pool. It never wins, however, it can give you some general trends on who to like/avoid. We have data going back the last 14 years for all the teams that are in the tournament a some stats (Sagarin rating, sos, rpi, conference Sagarin, conference rpi, offensive and defensive statistics as well) to create a profile of winners and losers for each round based on the past 13 years of data. In the analysis when two teams fit the "winners" profile, we have two different decision rules for the tie breaker (absolute value of winning score, difference of winner profile score - loser profile score). The absolute value tends to be more conservative, while the difference score tends to be more liberal. Last year I was lamenting that the stats hated Kentucky. Goes to show you that we have no idea what we are talking about. General trends: Loves Arizona and Ole Miss and Oklahoma if you are interested in upsets, however it really loves the 1 seeds this year. Difference score final four: Louisville, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Indiana. Kansas wins over Louisville Absolute Value final four: Michigan St, Gonzaga, Kansas, Indiana. With Gonzaga over Indiana |
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