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PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:17 pm 
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If you thought yesterday's valuation of Apple and Microsoft was fair then there's really no reason you should think they are worth ten percent less today. Maybe it wont be by next week as this drop has just gotten steeper as they day's gone on, but they will recoup their value. There's no reason to believe they wont.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:54 am 
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The impact of momentum trading is very evident in this market. Tesla is a great example with a silly run up based on nothing, but also an incredible pull back from the highs. It is definitely a workable trading strategy to jump on hot stocks and bail at the first sign of a sell off.

From the final days of grad school, research had shown that momentum trading was an unexplained violation of efficient market theories. It fits nicely into the growing field of behavioral finance. The simple fact that stock splits were driving Apple and Tesla higher are great examples of behavioral mechanics on the market.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:57 am 
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denisdman wrote:
The impact of momentum trading is very evident in this market. Tesla is a great example with a silly run up based on nothing, but also an incredible pull back from the highs. It is definitely a workable trading strategy to jump on hot stocks and bail at the first sign of a sell off.

From the final days of grad school, research had shown that momentum trading was an unexplained violation of efficient market theories. It fits nicely into the growing field of behavioral finance. The simple fact that stock splits were driving Apple and Tesla higher are great examples of behavioral mechanics on the market.



Here is a wild theory, non-experienced, hands off investors like myself keep the market stable. Basically, I pick two or three funds for my 401K and dump $1,500 into them each month. I'm on the 25 year growth plan so I really don't meddle with it. But every month, automatically I buy $1,500 worth of stuff. I have to buy something, so if there is a constant demand of people having to put their money "somewhere"...that should ensure a level of stability, no?


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:34 am 
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Absolutely, there is a huge impact to 401(k) money blindly going into the market each paycheck that causes a general uptrend in the market. It is also driven by the huge amount of money going into index funds where no one is stock picking.

The day to day volatility we are seeing is largely driven by hedge fund algorithm trading, and I suspect that is where the momentum phenomenon is coming from. Rube will have some thoughts as he has a technical trading model and experience in this area.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:51 am 
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The 1%ers deeply love 401K.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:47 am 
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Steve Forbes predicts Biden presidency would be 'unmitigated disaster,' bring return of 'stagflation' - Publishing magnate decries Democrat program of 'higher taxes and higher regulation'

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:49 am 
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Nardi wrote:
The 1%ers deeply love 401K.


Not really. The amount of money you can shield from taxes is low for a 1%er. The upper middle class benefit the most, but I still get maxed out on contributions each year.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:02 am 
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denisdman wrote:
Nardi wrote:
The 1%ers deeply love 401K.


Not really. The amount of money you can shield from taxes is low for a 1%er. The upper middle class benefit the most, but I still get maxed out on contributions each year.

They love that 401K is a faucet that never turns off.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:47 am 
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FukNuggitt wrote:

Funny, yet another "fiscal conservative" who hasn't had utterance the first in years now popping up and popping off out of the blue. But not a word about his fellow trust fund spoiled brat who has a similarly dismal record of business failure.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 11:45 am 
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Nardi wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Nardi wrote:
The 1%ers deeply love 401K.


Not really. The amount of money you can shield from taxes is low for a 1%er. The upper middle class benefit the most, but I still get maxed out on contributions each year.

They love that 401K is a faucet that never turns off.


With the caps on annual contributions, they can’t shield a large percentage of their wealth. But yeah, everyone loves investing tax deferred.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 12:56 pm 
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What he's saying is that it basically forces millions and millions of middle-class Americans to funnel money into securities. And then that money is basically held hostage in the market, which means these stock prices keep getting inflated more and more and more.

Its why I dont really buy the "SO-AND-SO IS WORTH ELEVENTY TRILLION DOLLARS ITS SO UNFAIR", their wealth is very nearly entirely tied up in equity in these comapnies. Equity that we are allowed to share in.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:01 pm 
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Billionaires aren’t actually that rich is some real galaxy brain level thinking.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:02 pm 
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Look, if your bitter about your shitty life that's on you. I guarantee you more money in the hands of the average American would make zero change in their quality of life. They'd probably just get fatter and more consumer addicted.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:14 pm 
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I have a joy filled existence on this planet, and I’m grateful for each day.

Your second sentence is just you doing your massive generalizing of a certain set of people routine with no clear evidence to back anything up.

Your third sentence is funny, but once again we have no evidence to support or negate implementing something like UBI in this country.

I’m sure your next post will just ratchet up the hateful rhetoric, and will predictably provide even more generalizing.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:19 pm 
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Antarctica wrote:
Look, if your bitter about your shitty life that's on you. I guarantee you more money in the hands of the average American would make zero change in their quality of life. They'd probably just get fatter and more consumer addicted.


That is just asinine. More money means the ability to save and buy a first time home or a better home. It means putting money away for your kids education. Sure there are idiots who blow money . There have been people throughout the history of mankind that did the same thing relatively speaking.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:28 pm 
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Americans make more money than any other people on earth aside from small nations like the Gulf rentier states or Switzerland. The lower third of Americans by income have a higher median income than overall the entire countries of Belgium or Italy.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:44 pm 
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Antarctica wrote:
Americans make more money than any other people on earth aside from small nations like the Gulf rentier states or Switzerland. The lower third of Americans by income have a higher median income than overall the entire countries of Belgium or Italy.

And your point is what, as you continue your vacation sponsored in part by drawing on unemployment for much of the year from the country you describe as dying and decadent?

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:51 pm 
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Wasn't my decision to crank the printing press into eternal overdrive.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:41 pm 
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Antarctica wrote:
Wasn't my decision to crank the printing press into eternal overdrive.

Yet you benefited from it more than most. And are something of an exuberant ingrate as a result. Odd.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:14 pm 
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Antarctica wrote:
Americans make more money than any other people on earth aside from small nations like the Gulf rentier states or Switzerland. The lower third of Americans by income have a higher median income than overall the entire countries of Belgium or Italy.


So, what the hell is your point? IS that somehow something to be ashamed of? Do American need to save more? Yes. Is the availability of credit a way too tempting inducement to spend on things that people really don't need? Yes. Are there way too many free loaders who take advantage of some of the socialist stuff that the US has. Yes.

Is the US spoiled by how well we have it? Absolutely. That is why I cannot stand all of the stupid whining that many Americans do about how tough they have it. Reality is that they don't. Not when compared to the rest of the world, anyway.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:04 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Antarctica wrote:
Wasn't my decision to crank the printing press into eternal overdrive.

Yet you benefited from it more than most. And are something of an exuberant ingrate as a result. Odd.

It was stupid and never should have been done. That said, I'd be a fool for turning down free money.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:10 pm 
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Antarctica wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Antarctica wrote:
Wasn't my decision to crank the printing press into eternal overdrive.

Yet you benefited from it more than most. And are something of an exuberant ingrate as a result. Odd.

It was stupid and never should have been done. That said, I'd be a fool for turning down free money.

No, it just should have been done in a more rational method. Which is foreign to that group. Because it was a quick way to reward "friends"

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:58 pm 
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Jbi11s wrote:
I have a joy filled existence on this planet, and I’m grateful for each day.

Your second sentence is just you doing your massive generalizing of a certain set of people routine with no clear evidence to back anything up.

Your third sentence is funny, but once again we have no evidence to support or negate implementing something like UBI in this country.

I’m sure your next post will just ratchet up the hateful rhetoric, and will predictably provide even more generalizing.

Any feelings I might have had toward legitimizing UBI went out the door as soon as I saw these idiot Generation Z fuckhead Antifa-loving useless bastards. No way we should pay these fucks for doing nothing. No fucking way.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:52 am 
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FukNuggitt wrote:
Jbi11s wrote:
I have a joy filled existence on this planet, and I’m grateful for each day.

Your second sentence is just you doing your massive generalizing of a certain set of people routine with no clear evidence to back anything up.

Your third sentence is funny, but once again we have no evidence to support or negate implementing something like UBI in this country.

I’m sure your next post will just ratchet up the hateful rhetoric, and will predictably provide even more generalizing.

Any feelings I might have had toward legitimizing UBI went out the door as soon as I saw these idiot Generation Z fuckhead Antifa-loving useless bastards. No way we should pay these fucks for doing nothing. No fucking way.

Fuck UBI. Organize unions and strike.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:40 pm 
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https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/econ ... -mortgages


Quote:
The Fed has snapped up $1 trillion of mortgage bonds since March. It bought around $300 billion of the bonds in each of March and April, and since then has been buying about $100 billion a month.

The Fed now owns almost a third of bonds backed by home loans in the U.S.

Buying the securities has pushed mortgage rates lower, with the average 30-year rate falling to 2.91% as of last week from 3.3% in early February.

Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out in late March that the buying was running at eight times the pace seen in prior episodes of Fed purchasing under programs known as quantitative easing.

Just before this latest round, principal payments from its mortgage bond holdings had whittled that down to 21%, but it has now increased back to 30%.

If the Fed maintains its current buying pace, it will again own 34% of the mortgage universe by year’s end.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:03 pm 
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seems worth it to save .05% of the population

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:10 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-fed-now-owns-nearly-one-third-of-all-us-mortgages


Quote:
The Fed has snapped up $1 trillion of mortgage bonds since March. It bought around $300 billion of the bonds in each of March and April, and since then has been buying about $100 billion a month.

The Fed now owns almost a third of bonds backed by home loans in the U.S.

Buying the securities has pushed mortgage rates lower, with the average 30-year rate falling to 2.91% as of last week from 3.3% in early February.

Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out in late March that the buying was running at eight times the pace seen in prior episodes of Fed purchasing under programs known as quantitative easing.

Just before this latest round, principal payments from its mortgage bond holdings had whittled that down to 21%, but it has now increased back to 30%.

If the Fed maintains its current buying pace, it will again own 34% of the mortgage universe by year’s end.


Think about it, the Feds guarantee those bonds anyway through Fannie and Freddie.

Just throwing money everywhere.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:23 pm 
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The Ponzi scheme is going to be exposed real soon denni$.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:31 pm 
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Seriously, the Fed seem to be the only ones that know the dollar is just a piece of paper.

They yell it from the treetops


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:35 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
The Ponzi scheme is going to be exposed real soon denni$.


I think about that all the time. I debated (with myself) whether to start buying gold and silver coins. But if it comes to that, guys like me without guns aren’t lasting long anyways.

The sheer economic folly of what is going on globally will be studied long after we are gone.

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