| Chicago Fanatics Message Board https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/ |
|
| Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=79899 |
Page 1 of 1 |
| Author: | Beardown [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 12:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
First action of my return. Helping Mac with his show pot. I didn't think Mac's producers would be able to figure out this opportunity. Mac's a veteran gambler. He should realize what he has before him. For those that don't know, Mac bet $800 to win $500 on the Heat winning the title. He now has a middle chance. Spurs are 7.5 dogs in game 6. He could try it now or wait for a game 7 where the line would be the same. I would try it on both games. It's not a true middle since he's paying big for the Miami bet. Still, it's a chance you have to take. 7 point middle? Hell yeah you try for it. Could cash over $1,500 depending on how you bet it if it hits in both games. Somebody pass this along to Mac. |
|
| Author: | SomeGuy [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 12:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Get outta' here with this weak ass shit, Beardown. Buster is making you look like a fucking clown. Get it straight, get it sorted and come back when you're ready to play in the big leagues. You are about 6 months late with gambling criticism towards Mac, months late on the show pot.... You're outta touch and almost outta' time. |
|
| Author: | good dolphin [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 12:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
I would bet the Heat in game 6 then middle game 7. |
|
| Author: | Drop In [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 12:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Beardown must have sealed the deal with the girl chained to his furnace. He's lost the fastball. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 1:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
He could also cancel out his Heat bet if he's nervous about it. The Spurs are +280 on the money line for game 6. Better than cancel it if the Spurs win. It would pay $2,240 on an $800 bet. He'd clear $1,460 or break even doing it this way. Anyway, he's got nice options. Be a shame if he doesn't take advantage of it. Risk to reward. He should move on one of these options. I wouldn't ride out the $800 to win $500 if I were him. He's got a chance to kill it. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 3:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
So somebody make Mac or his producers aware of what they have in front of them. On facebook or twitter. I know it's not my money, but I want the players over the book every time. Mac can lose $800 and he's not gonna starve. But this is their show's money. So I want the poor producers to make money for the trip they want to take. Just overall it offends my sensibilities when a gambler doesn't take their advantage when they get one. You rarely get one. |
|
| Author: | Chus [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 4:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
The proper way to hedge would be to do an open two-team parlay. The first leg would be Spurs ML in Game 6. If they win, Spurs ML in Game 7 is the second leg. Spurs will be dogs in both, so he wouldn't have to risk much. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 5:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Chus wrote: The proper way to hedge would be to do an open two-team parlay. The first leg would be Spurs ML in Game 6. If they win, Spurs ML in Game 7 is the second leg. Spurs will be dogs in both, so he wouldn't have to risk much. That doesn't work, Chus. If the Spurs win game 6, there is no game 7. Spurs are champs. He needs to take one of my options. I would try for two straight 7 point middles. But an $800 ML play on the Spurs in game 6 is a nice option as well. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Heat are now -7. Spurs money line is now +240 Did the Mac move on something? |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
The middle hit. I assume he didn't play it. Some of you say my posts are worthless. This thread was literally worth hundreds of dollars. I'd try it again for game 7 if I were him. Line will be 7 or 8. But now it's a situation where Mac could just ride it out. But he should have played it tonight. It was the smart percentage move. Then Mac would feel more comfortable riding it out with a $400 or $500 win tonight. |
|
| Author: | ZephMarshack [ Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Moving on your advice may have hurt poor Spiegel's feelings though Beardown. Given how much he has put into the pot, I think his preferences should always take absolute priority. |
|
| Author: | Gloopan Kuratz [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Beardown wrote: So somebody make Mac or his producers aware of what they have in front of them. On facebook or twitter. I know it's not my money, but I want the players over the book every time. Mac can lose $800 and he's not gonna starve. But this is their show's money. So I want the poor producers to make money for the trip they want to take. Just overall it offends my sensibilities when a gambler doesn't take their advantage when they get one. You rarely get one. I thought you were the insider? |
|
| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 9:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
good dolphin wrote: I would bet the Heat in game 6 then middle game 7. He absolutely should be middling now. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
good dolphin wrote: good dolphin wrote: I would bet the Heat in game 6 then middle game 7. He absolutely should be middling now. Didn't get your suggestion that he bet the Heat in game 6. He already had them at a pick em for games 6 and 7. Why would he want to go more and lay points? C'mon, Dolphin. You should know better. |
|
| Author: | SomeGuy [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
I like Buster, better. He brings his A game 100% of the time. Go home Beardown, you're drunk. |
|
| Author: | Chus [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
If he is laying -160 on the Heat ($800 to win $500), he should definitely be hedging with the Spurs ML in game 7. He claims that he is an "investor", and not a gambler. We shall see. $395 on the Spurs at +230 would be $908.50. Subtract the $800 on the Heat, he profits $108.50. If he loses the $395 on the Spurs ML, he wins $500 on the series bet, for a profit of $105. Show pot = grown Nothing wrong with a ~12.5% ROI on a two month investment. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
It's -6.5 right now. Some books let you buy up to 3 points. He could also do that. Make it a 9 point middle. I think it would be like -180 to buy those points. Maybe a little higher. Bet $800 on it and go for the kill, Mac!!!! $1,600 for you and your producers. |
|
| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 1:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Beardown wrote: good dolphin wrote: good dolphin wrote: I would bet the Heat in game 6 then middle game 7. He absolutely should be middling now. Didn't get your suggestion that he bet the Heat in game 6. He already had them at a pick em for games 6 and 7. Why would he want to go more and lay points? C'mon, Dolphin. You should know better. I didn't say lay points. I also didn't look at the money line myself yesterday as I am on hiatus. I felt very confident that there would be a game 7. Now, I would have had to sweat that had I played it, but I was correct. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 1:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
good dolphin wrote: Beardown wrote: good dolphin wrote: good dolphin wrote: I would bet the Heat in game 6 then middle game 7. He absolutely should be middling now. Didn't get your suggestion that he bet the Heat in game 6. He already had them at a pick em for games 6 and 7. Why would he want to go more and lay points? C'mon, Dolphin. You should know better. I didn't say lay points. I also didn't look at the money line myself yesterday as I am on hiatus. I felt very confident that there would be a game 7. Now, I would have had to sweat that had I played it, but I was correct. But he already had them on the money line for that game with the 800 for 500. Wouldn't you say that's enough on the line? Why add to it? Yeah. You would have won. But the Spurs middle came in too and that was the smarter percentage play. By the way, the Heat were -260 for that game. Much bigger than the -180 that Mac has the Heat for the title. |
|
| Author: | Harry Seaward [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
|
|
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Mac is gonna look like that seal once he realizes all of the money he left on the table. Not a shitty thread. Right now it's worth $500. Could be worth over 2k if the next leg comes in. |
|
| Author: | spmack [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Beardown wrote: Not a shitty thread. You can't determine what's a shitty thread or not. You leave that up to the readers. Right now, it's anusee, going towards the direction of shitty. |
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
spmack wrote: Beardown wrote: Not a shitty thread. You can't determine what's a shitty thread or not. You leave that up to the readers. Right now, it's anusee, going towards the direction of shitty. If I left shit up to you guys, The "Mike North Show" and "Hamp and Holmes Show" would still be on the air. David Hernandez would still be on the run planning webio scams across the country. Drinky would have his own show telling Chicago to go fuck it self on a daily basis. Goff would still be a B&B producer harassing the hell out of Dan McNeil and annoying the listeners of B&B. Also, racial tensions would be increased in Chicago if not for me. They're not good as they are but just imagine how bad it could be. No. I'm not gonna leave things up to you guys. I've gotta run Chicago sports radio. It's a great responsibility that you could possibly fathom. I'd rather you say thank you and be on your way. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think of my threads!!!! Spmack: 
|
|
| Author: | FrankDrebin [ Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
|
|
| Author: | Beardown [ Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Hey Mackie, you gotta middle chance |
Mac won his $500. Had he done what I suggested. Straight middle in game 6. Buy 3 points in game 7 for a second middle. He's had won over 2k. My thread was worth $1,600. |
|
| Page 1 of 1 | All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/ |
|