Monday NIT: 631/632 Ohio/Bradley OVER 141, 1*
Bradley likes to play uptempo (1st in Valley at 69.7 possessions/game), particularly at home where it tends to hoist more treys. Ohio has shown they'll play fast with fast opponents (140+ possessions vs. Buffalo and Cent. Michigan). Overall, both teams are better offensively than defensively and this gap has been magnified in recent games. Ohio has gone over 100 OE in 4 straight games and has allowed its opponents 111, 107, 109, 127 and 121 OE in its last 5. Bradley has gone over 100 OE in all but two games since Jan 1 and has allowed 6 straight opponents over 100 OE. With a pace expected in the mid 130s and both teams exceeding 100 OE, I'm looking for a game in the high 140s. Bradley has upside to this number as sometimes they can shoot lights out from trey at home, speed a game up and turn games into track meets. They haven't had a game like that since 2-23, but in Ohio, they have an opponent who will likely play that style with them.

Tuesday NIT: 663/664 Syracuse-Mass OVER 163.5, 1*
I think this is the highest total over I've played all year, but there is good reason for it. These two teams are two of the fastest-paced teams in college hoops, with Mass ranked 4th in pace at 75.4 possessions/game and the Cuse 29th at 71.5. When two very fast teams hook up, the result is usually a pace number that exceeds both teams' averages. One look at Mass' stats verifies this. Mass has played six games this year against teams that average 70 possessions/game. So while the two teams in those matchups had pace totals that averaged between 145 and 148 possessions, every one of those games had pace at or above 158 (160 vs. Cuse, 178 vs. Vandy, 158 vs. Duquesne, 158 and 162 vs. Rhode Island, 164 vs. LaSalle). Overall, Mass had 12 games in all at or above 158 possessions. I think this one will be the 13th. This is a rematch of a game played in late November, which Mass won 107-101. That game had 160 possessions, and both teams had outstanding offensive efficiency of 123 and 131. Should we expect a similar game here? Why not? Both of these teams like to play fast, shoot the trey and don't play great defense. Will the Cuse zone defense slow things down? Not likely, as the Mass three point shooters will just bomb away or slash to the rack. If you think the Cuse zone slows things down, just look at how the Orange is playing. Syracuse has gone over 80 points in 7straight games and has averaged 86 ppg in those 7, while allowing 75. All the zone does is give good shooting teams ample looks from trey. What's the risk here? That these teams don't hit shots. But both teams get their points with reasonable balance inside and outside. So even if the trey jump shots aren't falling, these teams can score by slashing to the hoop or dumping down to the big men.

Pointwise's Monday NIT & CBI picks

NIT:
Rated 1: Virginia Tech
Rated 4: California
Rated 5: Nebraska
Rated 6: Dayton

CBI:
Rated 3: Tulsa
Rated 4: Valparaiso
Rated 5: Old Dominion
Rated 6: Ohio U

I'm going real heavy on Virginia Tech. Small play on California. Both games are on ESPN.

Any thoughts for Thursdays games? I'm liking Xavier, UNC, and maybe Tennessee. Really leaning towards a 10pt. teaser with all 4 games and taking: UNC, Xavier, Tennessee, and UCLA. What you guys think?

I don't play teasers in anything but the NFL. That's my opinion.

Thursday, I'm playing:
Carolina-Wazu OVER 142
Louisville -2 (now 3)
Xavier Moneyline

Friday, I'm playing:
Memphis-Michigan State UNDER 136.5
Texas-Stanford UNDER 134

Damn UNC/Wash, had them in a teaser O131. Should of left Louisville in it.

Coast, whats your thoughts for UNC/Louisville and UCLA/Xavier

do they have the spread out yet for that davidson-kansas game? im interested to find out how the guys in vegas view that game.

Currently at 9 at most offshores.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

tough friday for me with both totals losing.

I have louisville to win it all and this is the big game. This could easily be the national champ. game. I think Louisville is the better defense and Pitino is the better game strategist. As he did with Tennessee, I expect Rickie to show UNC a lot of different looks. I expect they will half court trap on the UNC guards to affect UNC's sets and sometimes double down on Hansborough..maybe most of the time. They will also block the driving lanes as they did with Tennessee and force Carolina to beat them with jump shots rather than driving into the lane and shooting or dishing. Rickie will keep mixing it up as he usually does, giving them multiple looks. Roy will likely do what he always does...roll out the balls and expect his boys to be the better team. I have Louisville +6 for 1*, Louisville on the moneyline at +250 for 1/4, and Louisville on the ML in a small parlay with X +6. I think Louisville's defense causes UNC some problems and they control tempo just enough to keep this under 155.5. 1* on under too.

I'm afraid UCLA is going to win this game, but think X can hang. I have X +6 for a small taste. Don't love it though. No opinion on that total.
.

'

itll be total i think around 135 so i dont know what the over/under is but theres my guess. xavier has proven they can beat teams with a great low post player so i think i may actually pick xavier. i know im rooting for them.

you have a future as a linesmaker, Jake. Current x-ucla total is 131.5.

damn. al i did was aproximated uclas score and xaviers score from last round.

im guessing thats a compliment to so thank you.

and damn it i was 2 points off the 133.

Texas +3.5 . I believe they win straight up. Basically a home game for them, and I think they slow Rose down.

I am in the toilet the last few days. I'll be playing, but no sense sharing anything...unless you want to fade me.

What do u have today, Coast? Like to hear as many opinions as possible.

take texas and the under.

id also take kansas but i didnt check the o/u so i dont have a pick for that.

i took over 143 on the memphis-Texas game. I'll have a few shekels on Davidson +9.5.

Absolutely every tout and every square in the world is on Texas. I actually have them winning in my bracket, but the love for Texas is so very strong that it's a blazing caution light. Joe Public has been winning with favorites in this tourney and when Joe goes with a dog, it's usually not good. I liked Texas,actually, but can't bet them with those dynamics.

I've showed some good gambling discipline. I stopped after the sweet 16 after being up a decent amount. I've still been following Pointwise. They've been doing horrible since the sweet 16. Luckily, for me, I hit big on 2 of their top plays in the NIT tourney.

another chance to bet the memphis-texas total at half...

Over 76 2nd half gets you over 143 for the game. If Texas comes back and gets close, we'll have a foul fest. If Memphis stays ahead, they'll just play fast and wide open as they did against Michigan State. No reason to slow things down if way ahead. Texas won't be slowing anything down...