Sorry to be so late. Busy day. I have half a regular play on Kansas +2. KU will (hopefully) zone Memphis and Memphis isn't nearly as efficient in the half court. Now you would think that KU will run with Memphis, and they certainly will when the opportunity presents itself, but KU is a very good half court defense. I had been saying all year that Augustin was the best point guard in the nation. I was wrong, Derrick Rose is. But KU should have the best chance of defending him of any team that Memphis has faced in this tourney.
I have had KU 1 point higher than Memphis on my power ratings since March 1, but Memphis has looked like the best team so far and this game is really too close to call. I normally don't change my power ratings though just based on what the teams do in March. But I'd make this game KU -1 or pick at most. So you know me, I'll take a little value as I find it. I think Memphis has the best two players in this game and that's normally enough reason for a play. But KU is more balanced inside and out. And they shoot FTs better. Will that be the TIgers' death knell tonight? If it wasn't the national championship game, I probably wouldn't play it at all. So I'm playing KU for a half the normal play.
I lean to this game OVER, but since I think KU will try to zone Memphis, that might slow the game down a bit. After watching the first half, we might have a better angle on a total at halftime for the second half.
1/2 unit on Kansas +2; no bet on total. check back at half for a possible 2h play.
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