I think it's funny, most people have had a realy bad go of it at Keeneland this meet. The handle is down 17%. I've heard nothing but losses for everyone I know.

Except me. I'm up so far at Keeneland this April. Maybe I'm just a bad handicapper. I'm not up much, but I am up. I think it's been absolute heaven; only 15% of the favorites have won. We're always looking for the weak favorite, and that's all we've had. And it's not like there've been a lot of huge longshots coming in either.

I've never seen a racetrack play so badly along the rail however. No horse stays on the rail through the final turn and wins. I've never seen so many horses start 5 feet from the rail at the beginning of the turn and end up in the middle of the track... and gain ground on everyone else. I'm very interested in seeing what some of the horses that have looked good at PP #1 do when they get to Arlington, where the rail bias isn't nearly so bad.

That remings me- any thoughts on the Lexington?

Well, first thought is what a bunch of pigs.

Looking a bit more, I think Atoned and Tomcito are the best horses in the race, but looking for value, I'm leaning towards Behindatthebar. Yes, it's another Pletcher horse who was thought to be a star, ran horrible in a stake but had an impressive win last time out in allowance company. With the good race under him, he;s got a chance to move forward and with a win likely into the Derby. I don't rule out Riley Tucker or Racecar Rhapsody either. Both seem to have ability though I question how fast they can go.

Will look closer at that one on your opinion.

I like Tomcito a whole lot tomorrow. He ran a decent race in the Florida Derby- he was basically the only horse Big Brown wasn't pulling away from at the end- and that was after a 5 month layoff and international shipment. It's not a great group, but the winner is in the Derby if they want it, and 6-1 (if the ML is accurate) seems like an overlay to me.

The only strike I can see on Tomcito is that Florida Derby had a fast pace setting up for a closer and he actually lost ground in the stretch He has worked well since that race and might show more speed here. They also switched barns after the Florida Derby but the trainer's name doesn't ring a bell.

Heard that the Keeneland track is pretty fast today. Adjust your wagers appropriately, but if that's the case, Samba Warrior could get loose on the lead. At the very least, he might be one to key into your exotics.

War Pass is out of the derby.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44680

I think this means a couple of things
1. I think Eight Belles, the filly goes to Churchill for the Derby and not the Oaks.

2. Horses like Denis of Cork will get in.

Maybe that $86,000 won't get wasted after all!

It also means that Big Brown is going to have a much easier go of it early on. War Pass could set some hellacious fractions.

Big Brown will still get pace pressure from several horses like Recapturetheglory, Colonel John and Gayego. Alot will depend on the posts as with every Derby. Draw in the auxillary and forget about it.

Colonel John will hang with the pack. Recapturetheglory will go to the front but I don't trust the class; he ran a nice Illinois Derby, but I don't know who he really beat. You knew that War pass would be getting to the front to set the pace, and you knew that he'd set a fast one. When there's 18 or 20 horses there'll be a few fireballs, but that's one less, and that's a good thing for Big Brown.

Today in the Lexington I'm playing (probably) an exacta box of 3, 5, and 8. Will bet one or more of those horses to win depending upon the toteboard.

I can see that play in the Lexington. Samba Rooster did run a nice one his last out and a 1/4 million dollar buy last year at ocala. He seemed to like the Poly in his work as well.

This tout accepts cash and alcohol.

I'll buy you a drink out at Arlington some day this meet.

Unfortunately, I didn't cash a ticket on that one. Tomcito got bet way down, but there was still some legit value in the exotic pools. I did box the 3, 5, and 8, and I put a $10 bet on the 3. I was waiting throughout the backstretch for some horse to come up and pass the 3, or (even better) pass the 4 and the 10 behind him. No such luck. I'm great on the bottom half of exactas though, between this one and Cowboy Cal last week, so I have that going for me.

Just messing with you about the beer.

Now I got to ask, on a double digit shot, why aren't you playing to place? Typically I will back up my longshot plays. Usually 6-1 or less, double the place bet as win. More I'll go straight up win and place.

Very rarely will I bet to place or show, especially on a longshot. This is because they're usually being bet to place and show by a lot of bettors to do just that, while the favorites aren't getting a whole lot of money to place or show. I've seen enough 40-1 shots pay $10.00 to learn my lesson. I'll trade a few missed place bets in return for a few larger hits on exotics.

Today's a good example. A $10 place bet would have paid $95, including the $10 bet on Samba Rooster. Definitely not bad. But realistically, only a couple 6 horses could have won this race if 3 didn't- the 1, 2, 5, 7, and 8. So for the price of a $10 place bet, I could have 5 exactas with 3 keyed in on bottom, each of which would pay out better than $95 (7-3 paid out $252.00). I'll miss out every once and a while with that when another surprise comes in, but on the whole I'm better in the exotics. I messed up today by being cheap and not trusting my opinion on the 3.

I bet place and show in the following circumstances:

1.) a race with only a few horses but no overwhelming favorite. You'll see this maybe once a week per track, where there'll be a 6 horse field and the favorite is 3-1 or 7-2. He'll often pay something like $6.00 to win and $5.00 to place, because people aren't betting him to place and all it takes is some gluestick to sneak into second for the place pool to be cleaned out. Favorites are almost always overlays in the place and show pool, but very rarely is the payoff worth it. When it is, I jump on it.

2.) Some idiot decides to bomb one of the pools. Someone bet $100,000 on War Pass to show during the Tampa Bay Derby, which was well over half the pool. If I would have had my faculties about me, I would have bet $2 to show on every horse but him. The payouts went something like $25, $25, and $75, because when War Pass went out of the money, all that money was spread out to the bettors for the other horses. War Pass Wins, or comes in third, all the other horses pay $2.10 most likely. But it's worth a shot when the payouts are so high.

Otherwise, I'll avoid it.

Understand your philosophy. I'm primarily a horse bettor and not much into exotics though lately, I have been playing alot of tri's and .10 supers at some tracks. Since I am basically playing the horse straight up, I focus on overall return so I will bet win and place typically.

As for the bridge jumpers, I agree with you. The tough thing is those bets usually come in right before the race so you miss out. I caught one at Sportsman harness a long time ago where a 1/9 shot decided to lag the gate and close to get 4th. The show prices were in the 100-400 range.

I always thought that supers were sucker bets. When I went to Vegas my girlfriend had 5 dollars in her pocket about half an hour before we were set to leave. We were drinking in the sportsbook and she decided to box four horses. I told her she was an idiot. Of course she won, perfect order, longshot on top.

Then we went to Arlington a few weeks later. She said she was going to play one of "her" superfecta boxes for $2.40. I told her she was an idiot, that she had a little beginners luck, but it's a sucker bet. She won again. She's now 2 for 3 on superfecta boxes in her life, only playing four horses each time. And she never fails to tell me how stupid I am.

What I'll do, especially in a 10 cent super is basically throwing 3/4/5/6 horses into the box (or more on the 4th spot). I've hit a few, probably lost money in my life but it's nice to hit one after investing say 6 bucks