College hoops tips off tonight with Vermont vs. New Orleans and Hampton vs. Maryland. I play 95% of all my hoops games for the same flat amount. I'll play maybe 5-10 games for a 2x double shot...and maybe 1-3 games in the year for a 3x "Play of the Year" kind of play.

Hampton +22-1/2 vs. Maryland
Coaches vs. Cancer tips off tonight and the Maryland Terps are laying heavy wood. Terps have been sloppy during the preseason, barely beating California of Pennsylvania by 1 and Division III Carleton (isn't Carleton an old cigarette?). Terps have been sloppy with the ball, with over 20 TOs in their latest exhibition. They have a freshman starting at point guard, which won't lead to very efficient play early in the season. Hampton was in the dance last year, but this is a pretty new team. However, they have some pretty good recruits, they have size to match up with the Terps reasonably well and they will run the Terps early and often.

Wednesday
0-1

Youngstown St +2 v. CMU
Penguins have 4 returning starters, including all Horizon guard Humphrey. I expect this team to be much better this yr in their coach's 2nd yr. CMU has new coach just recently hired and will be adjusting to new system. CMU has slight talent edge but YSU should be ahead in productivity in first game. CMU may want to go uptempo which Penguins will gladly accommodate.

Yesterday 1-0
Season: 1-1

Youngstown State - Michigan State OVER 128
With four returning starters, the YSU Penguins are far ahead of Sparty in terms of offensive efficiency and productivity and even defensive intensity. The young Spartans team struggled last night against a Brown team that played slow down and employed a matchup zone. It will probably play much better tonight than it did last night because YSU will play uptempo and the pace will be much more comfortable for MSU than the Brown slowdown was last night. I think we get value in the over based on yesterday's scores, because neither game yesterday will resemble tonight's game. Brown played a slowdown game with MSU, while the YSU score was held down by a CMU team that couldn't shoot straight (20% first half; 30% for game). The YSU man press and uptempo style was obviously a bit uncomfortable for Cent. Michigan. "We're definitely opportunistic and like to push the ball and get shots up,'' said YSU coach Jerry Slocum. "As many shots as we can take in terms of playing fast, that's how we'll play.'' Tom Izzo remarked after the MSU game that he was looking forward to that kind of pace tonight. With an umptempo pace from YSU, and MSU's willingness to go right along, I think 128 is great value.

Note: I may be on Youngstown as a dog in this game if the points are enticing enough (lines will be up mid-morning).

Wow. I pounded the total early this morning and the number has already risen five points to 133. I wonder if Pinny was monitoring my 70% record on college hoops totals last year and put me on their "watch" list this year. Or not. It's early and lines are moving fast with low liquidity.

Youngstown State +14 @ Michigan State
You won't recognize this Michigan State Spartans hoops team. The only player that got any kind of minutes last year was Drew Neitzel, who has been moved from point guard to the #2 guard. This team will be a work in progress for awhile. Last night vs. Brown, the Spartans shot just 41% and committed 18 turnovers. Youngstown, on the other hand, is a veteran team and jumped all over Central Michigan yesterday, cruising to a 24 point win (as 2 point dogs). In this one, Sparty has better athletes, of course, and guys like Raymar Morgan will be household names by mid-season. But at this time of the year, in the first week of the season, cohesiveness far outweighs talent when it comes to covering betting lines. This MSU team is so young and so new, it will definitely struggle against experienced opponents. I expect this game to be one where both teams play fast, but like YSU to hang inside single digits all night.

It's unusual for me to play three games in one day right out of the box in the first week of the season, but I've learned over the years that this is the time of the year when the lines are the softest. So I jump when I see value. I had to look through this one a few times, and study up on Alcorn a bit more before pulling the trigger...

Alcorn St. +30 @ Texas
A mismatch in athletic talent, but I believe we have an inflated line here. This line might be accurate for the talent mismatch, but not for how these teams could be expected to play right now. This is a brand new Longhorns team. Durant will be a special guy and will be one and done and gone to the NBA. But this is the first game and it will take a while for them to get their cohesiveness and efficiency going. Alcorn is a veteran team, with all five starters returning. As in the YSU-MSU game, I'll go with the less talented, but veteran team getting generous points against a talented, but young, favorite. No Tucker, Aldridge, Gibson, Paulino or Buckman (all five starters from last year's Texas team) means no cover.

Yesterday: 1-2
Season: 2-3

Friday Plays
I'm going with two unders tonight involving teams playing on neutral courts. All four teams have a sprinkling of veterans, but all are missing key elements from last year's teams...particularly point guards or leading scorers. These totals are set at about where these teams performed last year, but expecting them to reach these offensive numbers in their first games on neutral courts is IMO, a reach.

UTEP-Penn UNDER 126 @ Syracuse
Two new coaches will add to the first game adjustment, as will shooting in the Dome.

Navy-Loyola MD Under 150 @ NYC
Loyola plays fast, but is missing its leading scorer from last year. While they have a new transfer from Providence to assume that role, I don't expect them to shoot lights out in this first game. Navy runs a four guard offense so I don't expect them to play very fast against a team that will be a bit imposing in the paint.

In addition to DePaul, I'll be playing this Saturday night:

Northern Arizona +25 @ Kansas
This could be a first or even second round NCAA matchup. NAU will likely win the Big Sky conference and is the kind of 25 win team that could get an NCAA tourney invite even if they don't win the conference. tourney. Four starters return, including the nation's three point shooter. These guys shoot the trey very well. KU is a top five team, of course, but is without Giles and Kaun tonight who are laid up for awhile. And Chalmers is injured, but will play. There is plenty of talent to be sure on the KU roster, but the normal rotation will be a little disturbed tonight. I think this is an overlay, which isn't unusual considering all the public love for Kansas basketball.

c2c - thanks for your analysis !

One more Saturday night...

Wright State +7 @ Miami-Ohio
I love Charlie Coles and will be on his Miami-O team several times this season, I'm sure. But here, I'll back a veteran WSU team with an outstanding new coach, Brad Brownell, formerly of UNC-Wilmington. Hatcher was so critical to the Mi-O team that I think it will take a little while for them to figure out their go-to guy. With the way these two coaches emphasize defense and shot selection, this one will likely be a grinder. If either team gets to 60, they'll probably win. In this kind of game, I'll take the more veteran team with the points.

As always, top notch analysis, and mmmmmmm chicken

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Arizona -3 vs Virginia- I know Virginia looked bad last year and 'Zona has a star freshman.

Saturday: 1-2
Season: 3-5

Virginia +3 vs. Arizona
I looked long and hard at the matchups in that one Reents and am actually making a play on the other side. That's probably good for you. We'll see how Lute's bunch "travels" early on. They have eaten dust on previous trips east.

UC Riverside - La Monroe under 131
This is a bit of an "angle" play for me....taking games UNDER when two teams are playing their third game in three days on a neutral floor. With this angle, I don't play games involving teams playing on their home court or teams that aren't usually on the betting board. Thus, this is the only one of the 10 or so 3/3 games today that apply to this angle. The four games these teams have played have all gone under this number. With expected shot totals and shooting percentage on 3/3, I think this one will stay under too.

Sunday: 1-1
Season: 4-6

I may have others on Monday, but getting this one early as I expect it to be lower by game time.

UNC Greensboro +9 @ Penn State
Greensboro returns all five starters from last year's team and is coming off a 2 point loss in OT at Marshall. This team plays a bit faster than normal and has inside/out balance with 6-6 pounder Hines inside and Hickman outside. Hines will probably be all So-Con this year and he went off for 38 vs. Marshall. They are a little undersized, going 6-6, 6-5, 6-4 and only one taller reserve (6-11) who gets double digit minutes. However, this shouldn't be a big negative vs. a PSU team that is quite similar in size, with two 6-11 guys who share time in the post, but aren't big time players. PSU is playing without its best player, Claxton, so this PSU team is several points in power ratings below where it will be when he returns. Penn State off a nice win over Moorhead, but UNCG a notch or two up from Moor. Looking for a close one. Lean to the over, but not playing it.

Two totals for Monday night.

UNC-Wilmington @ Belmont OVER 136
This Wilmington team is going to go uptempo with its new coach and the veteran Belmont team will likely go right with them. When this veteran Belmont team played fast teams last year, it had shot totals in the 120s-130s. If Wilmington plays as fast as its coach suggests it will...and as fast as it played in its exhibition....then this one should go over with any kind of average shooting. Wilmington might have a bit overall better talent, but with its best player TJ Carter out, the points will come from several places. Belmont has solid guards and Boomer Herndon inside. Lean to Belmont, because Wilmington will have some issues with Carter out and Gardner leaving the team.


THE FRANK COZTANSA SPECIAL
Frank, if you go to the game, don't fall asleep. Just root for DEFENSE.

Montana State – UCSB UNDER 133
Montana State looks to have real offensive issues. They lost their two best players from last year and there doesn’t appear to be a scorer left in the bunch. They are coming off a 69-37 loss at Utah Valley College...a game in which the Bobcats shot 25%. UCSB played an above-average paced game vs. SJS on Saturday, which might give some bettors a belief that the pace of this one will be above average. How else to explain the line rise from the opener at 130 to 133? I don’t buy it. Montana State has so much trouble scoring, they appear to be trying to work for good shots. They only took 47 shots vs UVC and had only 15 trips to the line. They also turned it over 21 times. Those aren't the stats of a "fast" team. This one looks to me like an ugly grinder that UCSB will likely win. But I’m not going to lay points on the road with an unproven Gauchos team on a road trip to freaking Bozeman. But I will bet that this one will be ugly. I had a strong lean at the opening number of 130, but at 133, it’s a play.

our Bball team sucks.

_________________

yes Frank they do...and YOU are in charge of making sure they suck big time shooting the rock tonight.

i think the elevation is gonna get to them


tell ya what coast...maybe if i hit up a game this year, ill go to KFC first, get a bucket, tape it to my head, and run across the court. it shall be filmed, for use as your new avatar :p

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Man your team sucks all right. Losing by 30 at home. Gonna be a looooong cold winter in Bozeman. Forget running across the court with a bucket, Frank. Grab a jersey and walk on. They need you.

Ok. Time for a strategy change. I've been playing college hoops for 30 years and I've learned that sometimes mid-course corrections are required. I usually only play games that I really, really like, but in the first week of the season I have lost every game I really, really liked and won every game I really LOVED. Only the LOVES from now on until further notice. Even though 55% on a 300 play season will earn more profit than 59% on a 150 play season, I'm going with only my best until I get this baby back on track. Cause right now I'm 38% and that's not good.

Monday: 1-2
Season: 5-8

Air Force -8 vs. Long Beach
Slow vs. fast. Patterned, half-court offense versus transition offense. Disciplined defense vs. undisciplined defense. In almost every such matchup, I will lean to the slow, patient team because fast teams generally are not known for their patience in their half-court defense. These kinds of teams want to get out and run, and find it difficult to play disciplined defense for 35 seconds each possession. Long Beach is such a team. The Beach will try to press and turn you over, but Air Force has veteran guards and I’m not concerned about their turnovers. In fact, if the Beach gambles...and they sometimes do...good ball-handling teams will beat them on the press and get easy baskets. Testimony to the Beach’s mediocre defense is its 46% FG% defense last year. Size inside is typically Air Force’s weakness. It shouldn’t be a weakness against a Beach team that was the worst rebounding team in the Big West last year at -3.5 RB margin.

Ok. Time for a strategy change. I've been playing college hoops for 30 years and I've learned that sometimes mid-course corrections are required. I usually only play games that I really, really like, but in the first week of the season I have lost every game I really, really liked and won every game I really LOVED. Only the LOVES from now on until further notice. Even though 55% on a 300 play season will earn more profit than 59% on a 150 play season, I'm not anywhere near 55% right now. I'm going with only my best until I get this baby back on track.

Monday: 1-2
Season: 5-8

Air Force -8 vs. Long Beach
Slow vs. fast. Patterned, half-court offense versus transition offense. Disciplined defense vs. undisciplined defense. In almost every such matchup, I will lean to the slow, patient team because fast teams generally are not known for their patience in their half-court defense. These kinds of teams want to get out and run, and find it difficult to play disciplined defense for 35 seconds each possession. Long Beach is such a team. The Beach will try to press and turn you over, but Air Force has veteran guards and I’m not concerned about their turnovers. In fact, if the Beach gambles...and they sometimes do...good ball-handling teams will beat them on the press and get easy baskets. Testimony to the Beach’s mediocre defense is its 46% FG% defense last year. Size inside is typically Air Force’s weakness. It shouldn’t be a weakness against a Beach team that was the worst rebounding team in the Big West last year at -3.5 RB margin.

im shorter than mac. i dont care how bad they are, the last thing they need on that team is a short, overweight, drunkard running cluelessly about.


i gotta try and get a picture of the headline in the sports section today for you coast;

"Bobcat offense improves, but team suffers back to back 32 point losses"

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now that's classic. Love it. I've got to go look up their schedule. I imagine the price to fade them will be going up, but this is a team with BET AGAINST written all over it. At this rate, they will be 25 point dogs vs. average teams before long.