Last week: 5-0
YTD: 16-11-1; +3.9

Last week my numbers gave me 5 plays. This week, just one so far...though I might pull the trigger on another one.

Washington +3, -125 @ Detroit
Lions mania with Stafford returning has made this line 4.5 points higher than I see it. And I guess Wash's desultory win at Chi has left a perceptioni that the Skins blow. So that leads to a public perception reflected in the betting line that Detroit is on an uptick and Wash is overrated. Both might be true, but let's review the numbers. Is this a fair price for that perception?

Last week, Wash was 3 point dogs at Chi and won outright, meaning that this week, the power ratings would make Wash 2 point dogs at Chi. ( I bet Wash. last week because I thought they were undervalued in that line. And they didn't disappoint.) But now they are 3 point dogs at Detroit -- meaning the linesmakers now have Detroit rated higher than Chicago. The Lions began the year 4 points lower than Chi and I now have them 1.5 points lower than Chi. At no point have the Lions been rated higher than the Bears. But this line makes Detroit a tick higher than Chi. This is a classic case of public perception influencing the setting and moving a line...and the public overpaying for that perception. 4.5 points of value makes this a play. Whether it's buying a car or a football bet, I take the good prices when they pop up.

This week's power ratings and schedule:
http://www.mediafire.com/?516eg99mgccexpd

2010: 21-21 +0.92

Washington ML (+125)
Washington/Detroit over 44 (-115)
St. Louis -3 (+110)
Tampa Bay +3 (+108)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

That's a whole lot of analysis.

I can save you a lot of time and money. Detroit wins.

_________________
-- source

Tennessee +4 @ San Diego
I have Tenn rated 1 higher than SD. Another guy whose ratings I respect (we don't compare notes or methods) has Tenn 2 higher than SD. So I think this line should be SD -1 or -2. A couple points of value across the key number looks good to me. Then we have the little matter of Fisher vs. Norv. I'd make Fisher -175 vs. Norv in coaching acumen. I also give Tenn the edge in rushing and in defense. Better team, better coach, getting 4...take.

2 team 6 pt. Teaser -110
Two home favorites I expect to win.
NY Jets pick vs. Green Bay &
KC Chiefs -1 vs. Buffalo

Denver-SF UNDER 42
Some rain expected and Wembley is notorious for being a horrible field when wet. Previous NFL games have been slop fests there even in light rain because the field is so awful.

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_16479683

Billy Walters was the reason for the move up on San Diego. So if you like Tenn, wait. You might get 4.5 or 5. I love it when I'm on the other side of the world's biggest sports gambler.

He also likes New Orleans. If you like the Saints, get it now at -1. If you like the Stillers, wait. It wIll be higher by kick.

Tennessee +200 ML is out there. I am tempted, but I like 4.5 points.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Coast, thanks for all of information. Now, I just hope you are right.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

I'm right about the BW information. SD already up from 3 earlier in the week, 4 yesterday to 5.5 at some places. NO will surely rise. The off-screens where BW's runners mostly bet aren't open for the night game yet. Look for that NO line to start moving this afternoon.

PS...Pinnacle just moved New Orleans from -1 to -2.5. They are already seeing BW's boys hit them from all directions. Look for the other books to move up following PInny's lead. Get it now or never. I doubt they will move it to 3 to prevent middles, but if they get hit with enough Saints money, who knows...

Right about my picks? That's another story.

Spot on as usual. The Saints number has moved to 2 at some shops. The ones that are still at one are juicy.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

he's also pressing his bet on san diego. The 2h line moved from -5 to -6 real fast. I'll hold on to my Tenn +4 TYVM.

SD-Tenn over 22.5, 2h
I am playing the Chargers-Titans over 22.5, 2nd half. Defenses aren't doing much.

week 8: 3-1 +2.18
2010: 24-22 +3.10

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

2010: 24-22 +3.10

Houston +6 (-110)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

2010: 24-23 +2.00

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way