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 Post subject: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:48 am 
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2010: 16-20-3 -6.36

Maryland -5.5 (-105)

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 Post subject: Re: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:55 pm 
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Last week: 0-3
YTD: 11-20, -13.0

Wow. What a lousy college season so far. My college record is starting to look like Stu Gotz's in that contest we had a few years back. Fortunately, there is more season left, there are games on Sunday...and hoops starts in two weeks.

USC +7, -120
Will it be the fourth Saturday in a row for the home dog to knock off #1? The Kiffins had a bye week to prepare and both Trojan losses were only by field goals. USC has not been a home dog in 9 years. You think maybe the Trojans will be reminded of that a few times this week? And as good as Oregon's O is, USC has a better D.


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 Post subject: Re: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:15 pm 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
...and hoops starts in two weeks.



Time to kill the books.

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 Post subject: Re: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:37 pm 
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2010: 16-20-3 -6.36

Maryland -5.5 (-105)
North Carolina State +4 (+103)
Florida State/North Carolina State under 59 (-108)

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 Post subject: Re: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:22 pm 
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Chus wrote:
2010: 16-20-3 -6.36

Maryland -5.5 (-105)
North Carolina State +4 (+103) W
Florida State/North Carolina State under 59 (-108) W


2-0 +2.03
18-20-3 -4.33

Maryland -5.5 (-105)

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 Post subject: Re: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:17 am 
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18-20-3 -4.33

Maryland -5.5 (-105)
Purdue +17 (-102)

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 Post subject: Re: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:44 am 
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Stanford -Washington over 63.5

Iowa -6.5 vs. Michigan State
A lot of public money coming in on Mich. State, but line not moving. Hmmmmm. MSU may be undefeated, but I see value in this number.

When Iowa played at Michigan it was -3.5. When MSU played at Mich, MSU was +4. At that point in time, Iowa was 7.5 higher than MSU in power ratings..which would translate to 10.5 at Iowa.

WHen Iowa played Wisconsin at home it was -6. When MSU played at home vs. Wisconsin, MSU was +3. Based on those two games, Iowa was 3 higher than Wis and MSU was 6 lower than Wis. That makes Iowa 9 higher than MSU or 12 if the game were at Iowa.

So now, after Iowa loses to Wis, the difference is only 3.5 in power ratings? I could see one or two points total moves in the Iowa and MSU PRs, but this is a 5.5 point move. Yes MSU is undefeated and yes they may have been undervalued, but looks like too much of a move to me. And leaving the number at the classic dog trap number of 6.5 suggests to me the books are taking a position on Iowa. So am I.


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 Post subject: Re: NCAA Week 9
PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:20 am 
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Chus wrote:
18-20-3 -4.33

Maryland -5.5 (-105) W
Purdue +17 (-102) L


week 9: 1-1 -0.02
2010: 19-21-3 -4.35

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