Bears -3 against Saints
OVER 43

What is going on with the Saints. When the playoffs started, I probably would have ranked the Saints as the 4th best team in the NFC (Bears, Eagles, Cowboys). Now, after one home win (in which they did not cover) they are suddenly the NFC darlings. I am not buying it. It looks like a few late players do not as well as the line has moved back to 3. I was hoping all the hype would move this one down to 1.5.

While they have talent, the Saints are not a great rushing team. They ranked rather low on the YPC list. What they do though is devote themselves to running, as they were high on attempts per game. The Bears are a defense built for speed, and the Saints rely on speed for rushing success. I have a feeling the Bears will be able to stop the run.

The Saints have an exceptional passing attack. Unlike the run game, it is more built on power and route running. Neither Colston nor Horn (if he plays) are burners. The Bears match up well on this end also. Charles Tillman is a big corner who seems to have his greatest success against physical receivers. The wild card in all of this is Devery Henderson. He is faster than anyone the Bears have besides Hester.

On offense, this one will be won on the O line. The Saints have a good and emerging pass rush with their young DEs. The Saints are good but not exceptional at the LB position and weak at DB. If Tait and Miller can control the DE's I do not think the Saints will be able to cause enough pressure to move rex around in the pocket. That means lots of opportunites to go downfield.

Even if the DE's are getting some pressure, I think the Bears can shut that down by running the ball up the middle. The Saints are old and overweight at DT and I think they can be had. Cedric Benson is going to be the Bear wild card. If he can pound the middle of the line early, I promise you the beloved will hit Berrian with a long one.

I wish this number was below three. I think the books will make a killing on this one because the number is correct. I like it at 2.5, I love it under 2 (but it will not get there). If it stays at 3 I think your better play is the over.

Colts -3 against New England
Over 47

cha ching times four. The Good Dolphin is throwing a party. Great calls GD.

Thanks. I was 3-1 last weekend as well. I must be channeling Nas.