It is currently Sat Nov 23, 2024 12:25 pm

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 50 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2016 5:47 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4759
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Looks like four European entries in this race, just to make it difficult for us yanks to handicap.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... t7DaysNews

THERE will be a strong European presence in Chicago on Saturday night as four British or Irish-trained horses feature among the 15 pre-entries for the Arlington Million.

In Tryster, Mondialiste and Deauville, the European quartet includes a trio of horses who have won at the highest level before, while Decorated Knight is a progressive four-year-old and arrives on the back of a career-best effort.

Only 14 horses can compete in the $1million contest but all four European raiders are guaranteed a run.

Good preparation

Godolphin's only success in the Million came when Sulamani was awarded the race in 2003 but they have a strong contender this time in Tryster, who, as you might expect for a horse who has proven so effective in Dubai, has reportedly taken the travelling in his stride.

"He's travelled over well," Appleby said. "He was out on the track on Saturday morning and the guys were very happy with him. It's all been straightforward so far."

Noted for possessing an explosive turn of foot, Tryster is thought to be at his most effective on turf when the ground is fast and Appleby is hoping a decent gallop on quick ground will allow the horse to produce his best.

"They are forecast thunderstorms during the week but hopefully they'll miss them as it's a case of the faster the ground the better for Tryster," the trainer said. "He's not the quickest from the gates but you wouldn't want him to be too quickly away as he likes to be held up and come off a fast pace."

Appleby also confirmed that Tryster would be ridden by William Buick, who won the race in 2010 on the John Gosden-trained Debussy.

Supporting card

The last European winner of the Million was Cape Blanco in 2011 and Deauville, winner of the Belmont Derby on his latest outing, carries the same Fitri Hay silks. Behind Deauville in sixth at Belmont was his Aidan O'Brien-trained stablemate Long Island Sound, who is the sole European pre-entry among 10 in the Secretariat Stakes, which also takes place on Saturday.

The feature race for fillies at Arlington is the Beverley D. Stakes and Aidan O'Brien is responsible for two of the 14 pre-entries with Belmont Oaks third Coolmore and Ballydoyle, a disappointment in the same race.

The Willie Mullins-trained Clondaw Warrior - who won the valuable Galway Hurdle on his latest start - is a fascinating pre-entry in the American St Leger, in which leading American stayer Da Big Hoss is sure to be popular on the back of his Belmont Gold Cup win.

The final declarations for all four races are made on Wednesday.

Arlington Million betting

William Hill bet: 7-2 Tryster, 4-1 Mondialiste, 9-2 Deauville, 7-1 Decorated Knight, World Approval, 10-1 The Pizza Man, 11-1 Wake Forest, 14-1 Takeover Target, 16-1 Kasaqui, Take The Stand, 25-1 Danish Dynaformer, Greengrassofyoming, 40-1 bar.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:14 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:11 am 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 10:00 am
Posts: 79550
Location: Ravenswood Manor
pizza_Place: Pete's
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


Who the fuck would pay that?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:22 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


Who the fuck would pay that?

Big Fan

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:26 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 33067
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


I've been out to Arlington three times this year. I think I spent more on admission and concessions than the actual races. I probably need to open the wallet more for the gambling portion of the experience. And don't you think BF would be comp'd?

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:36 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
denisdman wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


I've been out to Arlington three times this year. I think I spent more on admission and concessions than the actual races. I probably need to open the wallet more for the gambling portion of the experience. And don't you think BF would be comp'd?

After the way he treated Frank? Neva

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:22 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4759
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


Who the fuck would pay that?

Big Fan


I like Big Fan, but that's funny. :lol:

I think I mentioned once before that I went for this first time about two months ago. After paying the $8 admission, I thought I would be able to sit in the upper deck. Not a chance. They call those box seats?

Only if I got tickets for box seats would I go again. Otherwise, you a breathing cigarette and cigar smoke all the time being in the G.A. area or getting beer spilled on ya.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:16 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2006 6:08 am
Posts: 7181
Location: Section 433
pizza_Place: 1. Homemade 2. Jewels
I go at least 3x per month in the summer but am fortunate enough to get comped. Otherwise no way.

I don't get the comment however about smoke and beer spillage in GA. I sit there all the time and never have had a problem.

Nice thing about GA is you can bring a cooler. Pay the $5 but save $$$ on food and drink -- easy to smuggle gin or vodka in water bottles and then mix your own. No coolers allowed in the boxes.

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:47 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:07 pm
Posts: 3705
Just heard Howard Sudberry on WMVP...said that winning horse owner gets $600,000....winning jockey gets $60,000

_________________
Proud to be UNVERIFIED.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:43 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
walkrman5 wrote:
Just heard Howard Sudberry on WMVP...said that winning horse owner gets $600,000....winning jockey gets $60,000

yep

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:44 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Arlington_Million_2016_Odds_and_Analysis_123#

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:56 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero
Someone tell me if this link works:

https://www.docdroid.net/JVEv6Xh/bw-pdf-viewer.pdf.html

_________________
Seacrest wrote:
I rarely troll.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:03 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:56 pm
Posts: 37832
Location: ...
it works.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
spmack wrote:

Fuck by the time it loads the race will be over

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:25 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
spmack wrote:

Fuck by the time it loads the race will be over

Someone Google Doc it then..that should be faster.

_________________
Seacrest wrote:
I rarely troll.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:13 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2006 6:08 am
Posts: 7181
Location: Section 433
pizza_Place: 1. Homemade 2. Jewels
It loaded in about 2 seconds for me, thanks.

Any chance of getting the Beverly D. Stakes too?

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:16 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4759
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
spmack wrote:


Thanks man.

I'm going to apply the quant method on this one and take the most value in historical winning percentage versus the line odds.

BTW, you don't have to go to the track to see the race. I believe it's being televised on one of the local cable channels, CSN or something like that.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:44 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
Easy Mondialiste

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:53 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:56 pm
Posts: 37832
Location: ...
i like World Approval and Decorated Knight so far. i just wonder how the odds'll look at race time. i'll post numbers on saturday when equibase shows up on the TVG site.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:03 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero
R5 - Bruce D. Memorial S
https://www.docdroid.net/Zc3lRCu/ap5.pdf.html


R6 - American St Leger
https://www.docdroid.net/mnwYbDr/ap6.pdf.html

R7 - Secretariat
https://www.docdroid.net/RbCihZ7/ap7.pdf.html

R8 - Beverly D
https://www.docdroid.net/vSNULr5/ap8.pdf.html

R9 - Arlington Million (updated with PP's)
https://www.docdroid.net/w9ailUN/ap9.pdf.html

_________________
Seacrest wrote:
I rarely troll.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:04 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero
R10 - Pucker Up
https://www.docdroid.net/a5CEHYB/ap10.pdf.html

_________________
Seacrest wrote:
I rarely troll.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:10 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4759
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Well, I did my calculations.

Most value versus current odds in order: Dubai Sky, Decorated Knight, Kasaqui, and Pizza Man.

By winning percentage, where I give 1 for win, .5 for place and .33 for show, it goes:

dubai sky
Tryster
Decorated Knight
deuville
world approval

My calcs take into account all racing history, rather than only graded stakes. I found there is not enough data to go on if I data mine by graded stakes.

So I will bet Decorated Knight (10-1) and Kasaqui (20-1) to win and Dubai Sky (30-1) to place.

Otherwise, I'm taking Tryster, Decorated Knight, Deuville and World Approval in my tri-fecta.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:45 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Easy Mondialiste

Walt I'm with you on Mondialiste but I read today that he's been extra sweaty morning during his US workouts...may wanna check and see around post time if he's washed out.

_________________
Seacrest wrote:
I rarely troll.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:55 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero
And I don't like front end horses here so that's going to eliminate Deauville and World Approval for me. There are so many of them in this race, they may burn each other out and that's when all the closers will pounce. Depending on his trip, Pizza Man may even get to the money. He's gonna get bet down because he's the local horse, but I don't expect him to win. If Mondialiste isn't washed out, that's my pick. Otherwise, I hope Tryster stays around 7/2 or higher.

_________________
Seacrest wrote:
I rarely troll.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:54 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:56 pm
Posts: 37832
Location: ...
So Mondialiste is like the Ahman Green of horses.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4759
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
I really like this horse, Dubai Sky. Not heavily run by any means, so it should be fresh for 1 1/4 mi. distance.

Has enough experience, where moving up in class is not going to phase him.

Shows speed that will keep him on the pace (was only 1 length back in the opening 1/4 mi in the Spiral, ran in 22 sec.), while having one more gear for that last furlong.

He's seems like the type of horse that doesn't want anyone to beat him. Like that spirit.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:05 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
I started handicapping the Bruce D and started laughing #6 owned by Eddie O and Hanley...I have nothing wrong with the trainer...actually like her. Olcyzk talks a great game ,but putting a maiden in here is just stupid :drunken:

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:53 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
Posts: 18493
Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies
spmack wrote:
R5 - Bruce D. Memorial S
https://www.docdroid.net/Zc3lRCu/ap5.pdf.html Michael J Maker and Geroux 10-1??


R6 - American St Leger
https://www.docdroid.net/mnwYbDr/ap6.pdf.html Da Big Hoss Bet of the Day

R7 - Secretariat
https://www.docdroid.net/RbCihZ7/ap7.pdf.html Oscar Nominated the Ramsey always scare me

R8 - Beverly D
https://www.docdroid.net/vSNULr5/ap8.pdf.html Sea Calisi want to see how good she is and exacta box with Tuttipaesi

R9 - Arlington Million (updated with PP's)
https://www.docdroid.net/w9ailUN/ap9.pdf.html
Mondialiste sweaty of not 2nd to Tepin in BC Mile

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:54 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero
Quote:
Picks & Ponderings ‏@picksponderings 4h4 hours ago
Decorated Knight (Million) got somewhat hot on the track today. Mondialiste (Million) less so, and less than he did earlier this week. - NN

_________________
Seacrest wrote:
I rarely troll.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Arlington Million!!
PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 7:11 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4759
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
In the Beverly, R8:

Pretty Girl 14, 13 Sea Calisi, 12 Faufiler, 9 Zipessa

Taking Pretty Girl 15-1 and Faufiler 15-1 to win.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 50 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 37 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group