Starting off looking at Saturday

Race 7 Distaff

Pace…Quite Slow

8-Randomize may be lone speed and has been able to walk the pace in these routes before…last time at this distance she eased them to a :47 and 1:12 split…she does that again, and with this group it looks likely, she might run away with it…the 7-Wet Paint is tough as nails...finished in the money 6 of last 7, five of which were Graded Stakes…lack of pace and jock don’t bode well for the 9-Clariere, a classy broad (that’s for Walt) that’s earned over 3 million…3-Pretty Mischievous has been solid her whole career winning 7 out of 10 lifetime, 3 of them Grade 1’s, but is facing elders here…the 4-Idiomatic will be tough to leave off tickets, Brad Cox is red-hot, this horse won a G3 then a G2 at Delmar, then a G1 at Saratoga, then a G1 at Kee…has to be the favorite…the 5-Adare Manor comes in with a 5 race winning streak, four straight +100 Brisnet numbers, and if you don’t know her jock Juan Hernandez you will by the end of the weekend

Picks later

Saturday

Race 8
1 ½ Turf

Pace- The 6-Get Smokin scratched and he appeared to be the only speed

Heavy influence of Euro riders…American Turf horses just don’t go this distance with Euro’s winning 19 of the last 24, particularly Irish horses (God bless’em)...the 5-Auguste Rodin has won 2 of 3 from this distance…the 13-War Like Goddess has won 7 out of 9 at this distance and is more than fast enough and bred to run all day, out of English Channel at 12-1…the 4,7,and 8 will all be charging at the end

Picks later

Race 9

Pace
The 6-Saudi Crown and 12-Arabian Knight appear to be the speed, if they end up in a dual it could fall apart

2-Zandon is trained by Chad Brown, gets Frankie in the irons and has popped at least 10 straight 100+ speed number, finally won at the Woodward after many 2nds, light may have gone on…3-White Abarrio will be bet, might be in over his head here, but AM workouts have been meticulous and should get a nice pocket trip…8-Ushiba Tesora is one of two from Japan, where breeding is taken quite seriously…this 6 year old averages, AVERAGES 300K a start…

The two Japanese horses may show big speed too. There looks to be plenty of pace in this one.

I've always liked Zandon, but he's burned a lot of my money. I don't really think he's a classic distance horse, but man, the race really seems like it may set up well for him. He'll probably get a chance to burn some more of my money on Saturday.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Race 10-Turf Sprint (note 5 furlongs on dirt which is different than years past, as is having this after the Classic

Pace-Not fast

3-Caravel runs for Brad Cox, as hot as anyone now and wins at a 25% clip in Graded Stakes…9-Roses for Debra has Irad up and has handled G3 company, big step up…10-Motorious is 5/5 ITM at SA and 4/4 ITM at this distance, fits very nicely with Prat aboard…watch to see if either AE the 13-One Timer trained by local Rivelli gets in, or 14-Beer Can man, who might lure Prat away if he gets in

Race 11 Sprint

Pace-Again not fast

2-Dr. Schivel is a brute out of Violence, raced here at SA, won 4 times, 6 wins out of 9 tries at this distance, absolutely love this horse…8-Elite Power 9/5 on the morning line and 8 race winning streak, his price might go up…will have to turn the tables on the 9-Gunnite, I’m putting a line through his last at Parx, last 2 prior at G1 levels would be enough to win, and I like the cutback in distance


That's my look at the late Pick 5 on Saturday

Apologies for the inconsistencies of times/dates


FRIDAY

Race 5 Juv. Turf Sprint

Pace-Honest, I think

Trainer George Weaver has 3 horses entered in a race dominated by the euros, his 9-Amidst Waves is the best of the bunch I believe…I really do like trainer Kelsey Danner and what she’s been able to accomplish, love the bloodlines on the 7-Shards to turfer Kantharos, stepping up but could easily compete with these…4-Big EVS (shoutout to all us EVS guys) won 3 of his last 4 abroad, and gets a nice draw (favored overseas where they bet on this as well, fucking degenerates)…the 2-No Nay Mets has Irad running for a Weaver horse that has won 2 straight, and will be well bet

Race 6 Juvenile Fillies

Pace-Honest, maybe slow

The 3-Scalable ran 2nd on this course and Pletcher’s numbers in this race are outstanding, fast enough? Should be a price...7-Tamara will be quite a challenge to beat who was just impeccable at Delmar earlier, but is stretching out in distance…the 13-Allys Beach has faced some salty competition and should be tough here

Race 7 Juvenile Fillies Turf

Pace-Maybe it’s me but again not seeing pace…that being said any jock could look at that and say screw it I’m going to the front…kinda wish I felt better about the Pace Scenarios this weekend

…Euro’s have struggled here at SA recently in the BC…no California based filly has gotten better than 3rd…Chad Brown has 5 victories

12-Hard to Justify, not hard at all with Brown/Prat and daddy Justify…9-Carlas Way gets quality Euro turf rider James Doyle and is capable…11-She Feels Pretty, Japan could have a big influence (finally) here, 2/2 with a G1 win

Race 8 Juvenile

Pace

…lots of quality horses going forward, but today belongs to the 10-Muth, Baffert’s has this horse primed and gets an extremely good jock..runs away with it in my opinion

Race 9 Turf

Pace-again, in my opinion, none…Rosairo is sitting on the potential lone speed, not a good fit these day

8-Unquestionable draws my eyes with O’Brien and Frankie, a bit hard to assess though…14-Carson’s run??? 2 quality wins…very tough

My disdain for Santa Anita is well known

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I think the likely race shape- slow but contentious- suits Clariere pretty well. I'm just not sure her best days aren't behind her. But if she's in the 8-10/1 range she's probably worth a bet.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

The slow but contentious pace thing just messes with my handicapping...give me a race with 3 speed horses I can figure out what going to happen...but so many of these races appear slow on paper and yet could get out of hand quickly (hello, Distaff)

Race 4 Santa Anita, (Not Breeders'Cup) the 6-Private Gem is being turned around in 10 days, which is fine...it is the way it used to be done...but curious, gets Pratt-watch the tote board

Interesting first race...first of all it was safe, second the horse that won on turf (the 3) stumbled badly out of the gate and won from way off the pace...interesting

Race 3...jumping into the exacta pool for $30

4,8,12/All

currently 4th choice in the double leading into the next race...hope the public forgets about him

all over freedom flyer the 11 in the 3rd

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

So I've basically turned into a Pick 5 player because that is where the takeout is often less...that's what I've built here...

I'm not someone with deep pockets, but here goes

Pick 5 staring in Race 5
1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 14 / 1, 3, 7, 12 / 5, 9, 11, 12 / 9, 10 / 6, 8, 14

With over 50 runners there will be many sad, losing tickets...the more losing tickets, the more I win

WALT!

thanks for showing up you ol SOB

I'm just going to assume that I'm going to keep on finding $48 winners

currently bet down to 6/1...probably just use as a WPS

Boom goes the dynamite

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

paid $6.60 on a $2 wager...won't complain

next race is really wide open...payouts for the early Pick 5 you ask? Low is 14 K...high is over quarter million

Going to 2-9 exacta box .50 cent pick 5 ( ain't got OTE or JOR $) 2-9/7/6-11/10/8 grand total $2

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

19/1 goodcenough?

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

small WPS on the 4,7,9 and 14 that scratched out of another race to get here

Phew...payed a bit to get through that leg


EVS (my profession) rules!

Tamara may win this next one easy but I'm throwing some money on the 3-Scalable and hoping for a ridiculous pace that could set her up big time...the 12-Just FYI desreves to be in the mix as well

the 7-Tamara is nowhere near the value she's at now

Nice call on the 12

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

OK, OK

You good Hawg?

That would be relative sir, but I am much better than I was on Monday.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

complex Trifecta in the next Race 7

5, 9, 11, 12 / all / 5, 9, 11, 12

alive to
5, 9, 11, 12 / 9, 10 / 6, 8, 14

in the P5

Well if you got better from Monday to Friday, by next week you'll be feeling like a 21 year old!

Rube, JORR??? did you guys find Jesus? and can't gamble anymore?