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Coast2Coast
 Post subject: Presidential Election
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:25 pm 
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Two nights before Obama accepts the nomination, Obama is -170, McCain is +162. I expect this to be a tick higher Thursday night right after the speech. I will be buying McCain at this price and will buy more at a higher price Friday or other time.

Over the next few months, I expect the price to drop and the odds will come down. Before election day, I may sell some back to lock in a profit either way. But right now, I fully expect to have a position on McCain on election day. My take right now hasn't changed. This will be a neck and neck race, but with 20% of people saying the race of the candidates will be a factor in their vote, and far more of those people are white than black, Obama won't be able to overcome the racist factor.
20 units McCain +162
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good dolphin
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:59 am 
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Why buy today? As you recognize, I can guarantee that the price for Mc Cain will be better by the end of the week. In fact, I expect the price would be no better than sometime over the weekend.

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Colonel Angus
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 12:18 pm 
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I wonder what North's pick is? I wish there was a web site where I could get gambling advice from him.
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 2:33 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Why buy today? As you recognize, I can guarantee that the price for Mc Cain will be better by the end of the week. In fact, I expect the price would be no better than sometime over the weekend.


Because of limits.

The other thing that is unusual in this bet is that the blip from the convention will perhaps last only hours. McCain announces his VP on Friday morning, intentionally to stop Obama's post-convention bump. Once he announces (Romney), the odds on McCain might start falling. I need to get down all I want on Johnnie Mac before that happens. I think this number could be higher Thursday night or Friday morning after the Obama speech, but once the McCain VP is named, I expect the bounce to be small. Yes, I won't be surprised if this number is higher Friday morning, but lI also won't be surprised if it turns around on Friday and is then lower than this by Saturday. It's a risk I don't need to take to get a few dollars more by buying 40% of my desired position now.
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Keyser Soze
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:54 pm 
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What are the odds on who he names VP? Did you throw any money on that or the Dem VP nominee?
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 8:29 pm 
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Keyser, There may be some books that have those lines, but I've not seen them at the "my" books.

I am seeing something else quite interesting though at Matchbook. MB is an exchange, so anyone can set any odds and the amount they are willing to risk on any bet. If somebody buys the other side, it's a bet. Somebody has put up odds on each candidate to win individual states' popular votes. WIth the high odds in some states, there may be some opportunities to buy and then sell back to lock in two-way profits before election day. If anybody else wants to mine those lines at MB, I have to believe there are some nuggets of gold in there.


PS By the way...the best price I'm seeing on McCain now is +145. Guess I and others bought all the +162s and "they" dropped the price pretty quickly. Damn books. They move on such low volumes on stuff like this these days. This is worse than college hoops totals, where you hit them for a few limit bets and they move the line 2 points.
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:41 pm 
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The line on McCain last night after the Obama speech was +145. Now it is +155 after he announced his VP pick. Still down from earlier in the week, showing the Obama bump was at its highest point after the Bill Clinton speech. The market today though is taking a small pee on the VP pick. It will be very interesting to see how the market reacts as this unknown is vetted in the public media and her chops as a speaker and thinker are dissected...not to mention the public vetting of every possible business, investment and member relationship she and her husband have ever had.
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City of Fools
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:44 pm 
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I shoud'a bought in...

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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:26 pm 
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You can buy in on McCain now. The market is urinating on the VP pick. You can get Johnny Mac at +174 at Matchbook now. If you think McCain is going to win, that's a nice price. I don't feel nearly as confident as I did earlier in the week, but I still think it's a +EV bet. I'm going to buy a little more at this price and then look to sell back as the price goes down. I expect the price will drift down during the campaign and at some point, I should be able to lock in a profit no matter who wins.

McCain +174 10 units

Total purchase: McCain 30 units @ weighted average price of + 166
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:06 pm 
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Somebody just made $10k available on McCain at Matchbook at +179. There is another $6500 still available at +174. You McCain backers have a big chance here to back up your certainty with your cash. Go get it.
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 11:58 am 
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Official Bet:
Republicans to win Pennsylvania +400 (Matchbook) 5 units

Dems lead by several percentage points in latest polls, but western and rural Pennsylvania is hard core blue collar red neck country. Look at history and see how black candidates have historically done in the western half of the state, especially Pittsburgh and the surrounding coal/steel/rural environs. Not good. The hockey mom and the vet should play well there. Biden might help in Eastern Pa, considering his roots there, but on the other side of the Alleghenies, it might as well be a different state. This one will get a lot closer before election day. I'm not saying the Rs will win, but 4/1 seems like value today, considering the polls and my prognostication that it will get closer. I do expect to buy back this bet at a lower price (if not a + price on the Ds) and lock in a profit both ways sometime in October.
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Hawkeye Vince
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:44 am 
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What is McCain after Palin wowed everyone on Wednesday? Market Correction?
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 4:09 pm 
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Palin's speech was worth 10 cents and Johnnie Mac's speech was worth 13 cents to the market. Wednesday, it was +171. Thursday morning, after her Wed. night speech, it was +161. Today, after Johnnie Mac's speech, it's +148. The line has already dropped enough where, if I were a day trader, I could lock in a profit both ways already, but I'm not in this for pennies. Bigger profits ahead as this thing gets tight. Heard a Rasmussen poll this morning putting it at 42/42. It's still an overlay at -154/+148.
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Hawkeye Vince
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 5:16 pm 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
It's still an overlay at -154/+148.

That's a term I never thought I'd hear on an election....Horse race, yes....election, no. :-)
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:11 pm 
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Update: Obama is -130; McCain +124
With polls showing McCain opening a lead nationally, and several states flipping from leaning D to neutral or leaning D to R, I would expect McCain to become the favorite very soon.

My Pa bet is looking good too. I could cash that one already and put nice cha ching in my pocket, but I'll wait on that one too. We're in this for dollahs, not pennies.
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2008 10:34 pm 
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Obama -116, McCain +111
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24_Guy
PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:24 am 
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Is there anywhere you can bet on Biden being replaced by Hilary on the Dem ticket? I know the Palin effect might start to wear off, but if it doesn't, I gotta believe there's a chance Biden would "step aside" and let Hilary come in to save the day. I wonder what kind of odds you could get on that.
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Mr. Reason
PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:26 am 
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I don't think Hillary or Bill have any interest in saving the Obama campaign. They are looking at a 2012 run against McCain.

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24_Guy
PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:02 am 
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True, Reason, I don't see what's in it for her to be on the ticket. Except money (i.e. repayment of debt), but I guess she and Bill can make up their debts just by speaking for the next four years. So yeah, scratch my suggestion, and wait 50 days for Hillary's "I told you so!" speech.
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:17 am 
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It's almost even money now: Obama -111, McCain +103.

If you're playing along, we could lock in a nice profit right now. If I were to cash out now by buying Obama and equalizing the profit, the return would be:

(Original purchase: Mcain 30 units @ +166 = 30 to win 49.8
This proposed trade: Obama: 41.96 to win 37.8 units

Result: If McCain wins: profit 7.84 units (49.8 - 41.96)
If Obama wins: profit 7.8 units (37.8 - 30)

So I can lock in a 7.8 unit profit either way right now on a 30 unit investment..or a 26% return in a few weeks. That's not bad.

But I think we can do better than that. McCain will be favored in this thing before long. And I might just let my Johnny Mac bet ride since I think he's going to win it anyway. But that would be gambling on the outcome. I prefer investing and trading to gambling. :wink:
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24_Guy
PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:51 pm 
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You don't think Palin-mania is at its peak? I would think even if you're correct that McCain wins, I just can't imagine the polls looking any better than this for him (though of course the line doesn't necessarily have to follow the polls).
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24_Guy
PostPosted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:03 am 
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Coast, any update? I fear that for those betting on McCain, he has seen his peak in the polls (and the market).

Coast2Coast wrote:
"Money won is sweeter than money earned.".....Fast Eddie Felton


I love Color Of Money; very underrated film in my book. "You don't know what to say, do you? Maybe I'm hustling you, maybe I'm not. You don't know. But you should know. If you know that, you know when to say yes, you know when to say no, and everyone goes home in a limousine.
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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:21 am 
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The market has swung back heavily to Obama, now at -185/+180 for McCain. McCain has had a bad week and it will get much worse when Palin has the debate this Thursday night. But, a month is a long time. I expect prices to come down again.
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lipidquadcab
PostPosted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 12:14 pm 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
The market has swung back heavily to Obama, now at -185/+180 for McCain. McCain has had a bad week and it will get much worse when Palin has the debate this Thursday night. But, a month is a long time. I expect prices to come down again.


Thanks for the update, Coast. I was curious what the past weeks events have meant for the oddsmakers.

One site I visit daily is 270towin.com and they have had quite a shift in their simulation results in the last week or so. Last week, it was a pretty even split between McCain and Obama, but checking this morning, the odds of an Obama victory are better than 80 percent.
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newper
PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:37 pm 
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Any updates after the 2nd debate?

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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:00 am 
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The market has priced Obama now at -820. McCain is +680, but you could probably bid more than that and get it.

Guess I missed the opportunity to sell McCain. Looks like his peak was right after the nomination and Palin was still largely an unknown. :(

I'm still not convinced O is going to win as he is not yet up 10% in key states and I'm still counting on the racists to come out and vote against him. But I don't think I want to put any more on Johnny Mac than I already have, either.
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newper
PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:12 pm 
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Some slightly encouraging news for you on the Pennsylvania bet...
Electoral-Vote.com wrote:
CNN is reporting that McCain is making those tough decisions that politicians love to talk about. According to CNN, McCain is abandoning Colorado (9 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 Evs). If Obama wins these three he gets 21 EVs. Add these to the 252 EVs Kerry won and he has 273 and becomes President. McCain's strategy at this point is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and--get this--Pennsylvania. The first six are arguably swing states, but our three-poll average puts Obama 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. McCain is effectively betting the farm on a state which looks like an Obama landslide. It is a strange choice. Colorado looks a lot easier than Pennsylvania. James Carville once famously said that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama sandwiched in between. Maybe McCain is going to go all out to win the white working class men in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania. McCain can't possibly do it on the economy. What's left? Maybe run against the Wright/Ayers ticket? Any way you look at it, this has to be a desperation move.

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Coast2Coast
PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:35 pm 
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I hadn't heard James Carville's quote before, but that fits with my picture of Pa. having lived in that state for 7 years. Although I wouldn't carve out Pittsburgh as being different from Alabama. Pittsburgh is a lot more like Birmingham than Philly, and I'm not just talking about the two cities being the historic center of the steel industry in their regions. That's essentially why I made that bet in the first place. I'm counting on the redneck racist vote to make McCain a winner in Pa. Yes...I think McCain is running against Wright and Ayers rather than on the economy. And in that state, such a strategy could win.

By the way, where can I buy an Iron City beer in the Chicago area anyway? :D
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lipidquadcab
PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:49 pm 
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Perhaps I'm only seeing things through my blue colored glasses, but does anyone else find McCain banking on turning Pennsylvania as a horrible political move?
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newper
PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 5:05 pm 
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lipidquadcab wrote:
Perhaps I'm only seeing things through my blue colored glasses, but does anyone else find McCain banking on turning Pennsylvania as a horrible political move?

I think he is sort of running out of moves at this point. He needs to sweep every single state that is up for grabs, and is running into cash flow issues as well as a lack of time left to campaign. He's going to have to hit an eight state parlay, and unfortunately for him, the bookmaker called the voting public has the line in favor of the other guy. If I were him, I would tell the RNC to save their money for the Senate races that are close to at least try to maintain control there. The GOP doesn't want the Dems to end up with 60 seats, because then they'll be able to pass through almost anything Obama wants.

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