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Run for the Roses

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JORR

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Wed May 01, 2019 10:17 pm

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Dignified Rube wrote:

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Vekoma has no chance in the race.

Whatever speed there is in the race, Vekoma will be able to run with them until the quarter pole, which puts him in a position to win. I think Castellano will be more careful this race in distributing Vekoma's speed, because he knows he'll need something for that last quarter. He got a good post at 6 and has the hottest jockey coming in. And the horse has heart. I see no reason to be pessimistic about his chances.

I guess he could get on an easy lead and who knows what happens. Worse horses than him have wired better fields than this. I just don't find it likely.

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W_Z

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Thu May 02, 2019 6:45 am

Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:56 pm
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shocking turn of events with Omaha being out. i can't remember which other horses can run in the mud, but this could mean a really wide open derby for big prices.

if one of baffert's horses wins, he is the devil, and he will start the apocalypse.

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GoldenJet

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Thu May 02, 2019 7:50 pm

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On good authority

I have not made any bets yet.

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Don't be such a fucking chump.

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schmitty1121

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Thu May 02, 2019 10:43 pm

Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2006 3:10 pm
Posts: 6774

What was Terry's pick with Parkins and Mac? How about Eddie O?

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a retard

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 5:55 am

Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2006 6:08 am
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Edzo's commentary from xpressbet:

Quote:

Eddie Olczyk's 2019 Kentucky Derby Picks
May 2, 2019

Weather Again Muddles Kentucky Derby Picture
By Eddie Olczyk, Xpressbet Handicapper

I’m spending as much time as watching the weather as I am reading the Daily Racing Form. I’m hoping on Mother Nature to shine upon us come about 6:30PM ET on Saturday evening. You have to have two plans come Saturday – one if it rains in Louisville and the other if it stays dry. As of Wednesday evening, there’s a 100% chance of rain on Derby Day.

Fast Track Plan: On a dry track, it’s ROADSTER for me. And it has been for some time. I got ROADSTER at 30-1 in February and 16-1 in March in future bets. That said, I’m not going to bet him to win Saturday because of the futures coverage. But I’ll use ROADSTER a lot in the gimmicks on a fast track, including longshots LONG RANGE TODDY and CODE OF HONOR as well as stablemate GAME WINNER.

Wet Track Plan: If it’s an off track, things really change for me after the scratch of mud-loving Omaha Beach. I don’t know if ROADSTER can get up and down on a wet surface. CODE OF HONOR could be interesting at a price if it’s wet given his turfy pedigree. Shug McGaughey-trained Orb rallied in the slop to win here in 2013. If the conditions worsen, you’ve got to stay flexible; I know I will be. And you know where to find me – on the NBC telecast – for the last-minute thoughts.

Analysis: As for handicapping the race, it starts with the question: Where is the pace coming from? I think there’s more pace in this race than a lot of people believe. Everyone has their opinion and that’s fine. But the rail draw is going to force WAR OF WILL to be sent to the front early. He has to come out looking for position. MAXIMUM SECURITY should be right there. If you watched ROADSTER’s April 20 work at XBTV.com, he looked like he sling-shotted out of the gate. He had 5-lengths on his workmate in a few jumps; he’s got some natural speed. TAX is also drawn on the inside and won’t want to get buried in there. And LONG RANGE TODDY is another horse with speed coming out of the 18 post and he’ll have to get involved early due to his outside draw.

$100 Wagering Strategy (Fast Track)

- $40 Win: ROADSTER ($40)
- $20 Exacta: ROADSTER over LONG RANGE TODDY, CODE OF HONOR and GAME WINNER ($60)

$100 Wagering Strategy (Wet Track)

- $40 Win: CODE OF HONOR ($40)
- $10 Exacta Box: CODE OF HONOR, GAME WINNER and ROADSTER ($60)

Eddie's Fast Track Picks

1. ROADSTER
2. LONG RANGE TODDY
3. CODE OF HONOR

Eddie's Wet Track Picks

1. CODE OF HONOR
2. GAME WINNER
3. ROADSTER

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W_Z

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 7:10 am

Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:56 pm
Posts: 38186
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the highest rated slopmunchers are improbable, maximum security, win win win, war of will, and plus que parfait. i don't know where eddie is getting that game winner is going to do well on a wet track.

by my standards and code of honor are good exotic picks.

i think if you're a novice and just looking for a fun horse to pick, "win win win" has the best name and would get the best call if he won.

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Hockey Gay

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 7:24 am

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What do you guys think of Tacitus?

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JORR

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 7:25 am

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Improbable really didn't like the mud getting kicked in his face in the Ark Derby. The blinkers may have had something to do with his agitation though. The blinkers were almost certainly the cause of his meltdown going into the gate. It's not ideal experimenting going into the Kentucky Derby but after that episode at the gate in Hot Springs there's no way Baffert is going to take that chance even though he ran pretty good with the blinks.

Wet or dry track, Improbable is going to be my key. But there are a lot of horses I think are capable of winning this thing.

I'm planning on making this super for $360:

1,5,8,14 with 1,5,8,14 with 1,3,5,8,13,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,8,13,14,16,17

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JORR

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 7:27 am

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Hockey Gay wrote:

What do you guys think of Tacitus?

I think he is capable here. He's never really faced what I would call top horses though. His last race in the Wood was impressive. Watch the contact in the first turn and the way he bullies the other animals.

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 7:38 am

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
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Let's not forget Arlington Park opens short fields small purses ….also Colorado passed Sports Gambling :cheers:

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I'm out.

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 7:46 am

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
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Haikal out

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JORR

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 7:55 am

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Walt Williams Neck wrote:

Let's not forget Arlington Park opens short fields small purses ….also Colorado passed Sports Gambling :cheers:

Live longshot in today's 8th: 6) Next Monday

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 9:31 am

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
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Opener Friday 4-7nexacta box

So fuckin sorry gave it to you guys to late :evil:

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doug - evergreen park

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 9:37 am

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I put a $1 on it JORR.

Derby Bets:
2, 4, 7, 9, 14 to win

Tri Box:
1, 5, 7
5, 16, 17
13, 17, 18
13, 16, 17

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Last edited by doug - evergreen park on Fri May 03, 2019 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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doug - evergreen park

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 9:38 am

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Walt Williams Neck wrote:

Opener Friday 4-7nexacta box

So fuckin sorry gave it to you guys to late :evil:

at arlington or churchill?

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@audioidkid

spaulding wrote:

Also if you fuck someone like they are a millionaire they might go try to be one.

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Frank Coztansa

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 9:48 am

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I went with bets of #14 and #7 to win, with #1 #5 #7 trifecta box

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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

It's more fun to be a victim

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 9:52 am

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
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doug - evergreen park wrote:

Walt Williams Neck wrote:

Opener Friday 4-7nexacta box

So fuckin sorry gave it to you guys to late :evil:

at arlington or churchill?

Churchill

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 9:53 am

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
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2nd race 2-3 exacta box 3 looks tuff but 8-5

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W_Z

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 10:16 am

Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:56 pm
Posts: 38186
Location: ...

Walt Williams Neck wrote:

Opener Friday 4-7nexacta box

So fuckin sorry gave it to you guys to late :evil:

hah i watched that race. thought #4 could've gotten there. didn't bet though.

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 10:51 am

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
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4th race at CD the Ramsey 1st starter plus the AE that drew in 4 w/p 4-19 exacta box

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:22 am

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GoldenJet wrote:

On good authority

I have not made any bets yet.

Going with Del Mar Mary in the 8 Belles ready for a big effort

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JORR

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:27 am

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I'm keying the 5 in the Eight Belles. 5 with 1,3,6,7 and 1,3,6,7 with 5.

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OscarTangoEcho

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:34 am

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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Hockey Gay wrote:

What do you guys think of Tacitus?

He's been on top of my board for the last month. This pace will lead to a lot of traffic and he's proven he can bounce around and finish. Possible winner and definite superfecta horse.

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OscarTangoEcho

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:35 am

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This track is going to change rapidly over the next few hours.

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doug - evergreen park

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:36 am

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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

I'm keying the 5 in the Eight Belles. 5 with 1,3,6,7 and 1,3,6,7 with 5.

Can you explain this a bit further? How do you bet 5 with...

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spaulding wrote:

Also if you fuck someone like they are a millionaire they might go try to be one.

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JORR

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:41 am

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doug - evergreen park wrote:

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

I'm keying the 5 in the Eight Belles. 5 with 1,3,6,7 and 1,3,6,7 with 5.

Can you explain this a bit further? How do you bet 5 with...

Exactas. I bet the 5 to finish first or second with those other horses. I probably should have used the favorite since the 5 was such a good price but I didn't like the 4 too much in there and I was going for the gusto. I'm not second guessing but this thing will pay nice.

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doug - evergreen park

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:43 am

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gotcha.

so, you'll do exacta
5,1
5,3
5,6
5,7
1,5
3,5
6,5
6,7

correct?

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@audioidkid

spaulding wrote:

Also if you fuck someone like they are a millionaire they might go try to be one.

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JORR

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:49 am

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doug - evergreen park wrote:

gotcha.

so, you'll do exacta
5,1
5,3
5,6
5,7
1,5
3,5
6,5
6,7

correct?

Correct. The last one would be 7-5 though. But it's easier to just do it as a partial wheel. $1 exacta partial 5 with 1,3,6,7. $1 exacta partial 1,3,6,7 with 5. On the Twin Spires app you can do it as a Key Box if you're putting the horse in both positions: 5 as the Key and then 1,3,6,7.

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: Run for the Roses

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 12:16 pm