I'm not looking at the stats but I'd guess Pletcher might have the overall most expensive stock in the U.S. Maybe Chad Brown.

And I wouldn't suggest that Pletcher is 100% on the square, i.e. nothing but hay, oats, and water on race day, but his horses race like flesh and blood animals. Give him sixty days and he can put one on edge for a top effort. But these Baffert horses that just go to the lead 22-44 and keep re-breaking, it's ridiculous. Brilliant horsemen like Frankie Brothers and Kiaran McLaughlin couldn't compete.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

I don't think Pletcher is clean, less confident about Brown but I also don't think he's clean.
Compared to Baffert, both of them would be eligible for sainthood.

AUTHENTIC: "I just ran the longest race of my life in ridiculous 22 and 4 opening quarter...and yet I still have enough fucking juice in my to try to kill the mutherfucker...AAAAARRRRRGGHHHH"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBsxuXjTow8

The Sam F. Davis is a tough race to handicap. There's a lot of green horses. I think the race could favor the speed with #7 Copper Tax, but I also like #2 Tireless's pedigree and grit. Mott could have something with #12 Elysian Meadow, who is undefeated in two starts. His sire, City of Light, was a BC Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup winner in his final two starts. That's some damn good pedigree. Agate Road seems to be a turf horse, and I'm not sure how well he will do today on dirt at the buck and sixteenth. So I'm going off script with Copper Tax, Tireless and Elysian Meadow. Those would be my three.

If you hit in this race, it will be a big price.

I think we are looking att a pace meltdown..only one horse has gone this distance and a lot will be fighting in the first group...I think the 4-Crazy Mason could fly in late for the win

I am very strong on Crazy Mason in this spot. Hopefully we can get a reasonable price.

Early PK5:

2,3,5,6
1
6,7
1,2,5,6,11,12
4

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

Race 5...keep an eye on Samy Camacho today, local jock who is dominating here...his 6-Gorgeous Girl could pounce on the heavy favorite

Race 8 the 8-Caramel Chip 8 races 5 wins at this distance and 1/1 at Tampa...gets Ortiz, won't stay near the 12/1 ml but could be price still

Like the 12 horse Elysian Meadows layoff doesn't concern me bred to go a distance ....good luck

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Chi Town Lady---holy cow! What a kick! Track record.

I thought I was in trouble when she was last early on. But then she came on like a storm.

That race made no sense at all. No More Time had a winning percentage adjusted for stakes of just 4.7% (19-1 equivalent) and projected very poorly in the simulation based on final speed past performance. I don't know how you take a horse like that with zero statistics behind him and bid him down to favorite status at 3-1 ahead of three graded stakes winners. No More Time had only won its maiden previously and in its last race had done nothing in the Mucho Macho Man. Crazy. This was a wise guy race. Maybe the horse was juiced? Who knows. Agate Road's 2nd place finish was more believable because he was the class in the race (16.4% win percentage) but his money finishes had mostly come on the turf. Even the handicappers covering the race before the race joked that they needed to open the gate to the turf course for Agate Road.

The Sam F. Davis has weird things happen it in. Horses come out of nowhere with no history and somehow pull it off. The only thing that No More Time had going for it was its trainer and one decent start.

I typically like Tampa because of its large field sizes...that being said this was an odd race to begin with...but, I think it was Walt or someone on here saying that this winner won't matter...and that is true...this race hasn't had an influence on the Triple Crown really ever, so

I usually don't look at Tampa and I don't bet stakes races unless they are part of a pick 4, 5 etc that I'm playing.
That being said ,I wish I had looked. No More Time was a standout. The maiden win was faster than anyone had ever run. First time against winner the horse's number only fell off slightly despite a bad start. 3/1 was a gift.
This race was a sweet spot.
He is an Iowa bred so if he doesn't develop any further he can go be the king of Prairie Meadows.

Very nice Fat Tuesday Card at Fairgrounds in the Big Easy

got through the first leg in the early pick 5

4,6,7,8/1,2,4,5/3,9,11/3

may not single that swing leg in the late pick...

Race 7...the 7-Agoo sired by Munnings...he has these numbers at Fair Grounds, Dirt Sprint: Past 5 Years: 71 Starts, 19 Wins, 27% Win%, 48% ITM%, +79% ROI, $3.58

Race 8 Chris Block will have the 7-Oeuvre poised and ready

good luck and get fat

Risen Star Saturday at Fairgrounds

Named after a son of Secretariat…Historically this race has had a keen impact on the finishers of the Derby…namely the winner of this early trail race has been In The Money the first Saturday in May the last 5 years straight, 2nd and 3rd the last two years. Assembled here on Saturday is a pretty good contingent…this is the first time most of these 3 Year-Old’s will go this distance.

I think the 4-Sierra Leone (2.3 Million dollar Colt from Gun Runner, who won this race) will be the eventual favorite and the 11-Track Phantom stablemate and 7-Hall of Fame (1.4 Mil) garnering most of the action, the former getting twice the am workouts?

The 3-Honor Marie has posted faster numbers while going longer in 3 career races, 2 of the wins…8-Catching Freedom hasn’t raced here but has been training well in the am on the course…10-Resilience could get a perfect pressing trip from the outside, trainer Mott Williams has terrific numbers in these Stakes races, his win at Gulfstream is worth a look

3-10/4-8-11-7


All stakes Late Pick 5 later...kick some ass

I think Honor Marie should be the favorite but won't be. Maybe won't even be the second choice. That's likely where I'm gonna land.

I am against Track Phantom and Hall of Fame. I was less than impressed with Hall of Fame. I know he got a big Beyer, but it looked to me like he was on his hands and knees coming home and there was just nothing of any quality behind him.

I'm probably going to be against Sierra Leone. I think he is a win contender but I don't want to be betting him coming from far back with horses I think may be as good a lot closer to the front, especially on that track.

I consider Catching Freedom a legit contender and Cox always does well in this race.

I think Bee Dancer has a chance in this race. It's a big step up but it looks like he can get an early spot up close and maybe he can finish. He'll be a HUGE price and these horses are developing. I will definitely have tickets with him on top.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

Catching Freedom looked faster than his speed figs in his win in the Smarty Jones. I also like him but not at 5-1. Hopefully, he's overlooked and priced longer.

I still think Honor Marie and Sierra Leone are the top two contenders. Neither horse has run for a couple of months.

heads up, currently the course is listed as soft/sloppy (feel free to use this description on fellow board members) off the turf on 2 and 8

My guess is that this track will dry out well as we go through the day

Race 1 small WPS on the 3, 9 and 10

Race 2 exacta box 12-Point proven and 13-The Reds

Bad conditions at the Fair Grounds. That track is a washout.

speed has won 3 of 5 races, with the last being gate to wire

Race 6 Exacta key box the 11-Higgins Boat...think he'll like the slop...paid a lot of money to get this Omaha Beach gelding

normally I am a horizontal (Pick 5) player...not doing that with the weather in NOLA

Race 12 Fairgrounds Tri
2, 3, 8, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 8, 11 / 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11

at Santa Aita alive in the Pick 5 (no weather)
3, 4, 6 / 5, 7 / 2, 4, 8

at Fairgrounds

Trifecta Key box

3/1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

at Santa Anita alive in the Pick 5 to the 2, 4 and 8 (kinda meh)

I was close---3,4,8 tri box.

Hit the P5 at SA

Fairgrounds was a tough with the weather

tomorrow? sure

Congrats

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Rebel today at Oaklawn

I like a couple longshots the 6-Dimatic and the 9-Lagynos, both trained by Asmussen (the former a son of Gun Runner)...the 7-Timberlake should go off as the favorite

Timberlake's figs are just so overwhelming, but I don't think he's a really great horse.

Late PK-5:

1
1,5,6
3,4,5
7.10.11
7.8.13

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

I don't believe Timberlake is the Kentucky Derby winner. I didn't like how he could not keep a straight line in the stretch. And that was a very weak field he faced.

So far Sierra Leone looks like the best horse but he has a suspect running style. You get him in a 20 horse race and he's going to have some work to do passing horses. I don't want to be betting a 5/2 shot that has to be passing 15 horses in a 20 horse field. I know the numbers came back short on the Risen Star but that doesn't bother me. The track conditions were terrible. I still think that has been the strongest prep so far.

I was looking at the Futures last week and there wasn't any good bet on the board. Every single horse was underlaid. But if I had to make a bet, Liberal Arts at +7500 was as good as any. I assume he'll be going in the Arkansas Derby next and I think he's a real player there.

I had a terrible day yesterday. If you're interested you can look up these races. It's a tough game. The difference between getting fat and getting busted is very skinny.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8