Adding the 10, dropping the 1 in the 4th race for the last leg of my pick 3. Will hedge with the one if I make it to the 4th race.

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Fire Phil Emery

Race 9:

This baby is wide open, with the first three horses off the rail gunning hell bent for the wire from the get-go and the rest (more of less) looking to pick up the pieces in the final furlong and a half.

Let's start with the local favorite, #1 Dreaming of Anna. The morning line has 7-2; that might be optimistic, as I could see the on-track money contingent leaning too heavily towards her because of the local connections. No matter; she's a toss for me. She and likely posttime favorite Precious Kitten are going to be all-out in the opening stages of the race, along with Irish-bred longshot Rosinka. Rosinka won't make it to the front, but Dreaming of Anna will... and burn a ton of energy in the process.

Back to Precious Kitten. She's not strictly a from-the-front type; she'll gladly sit in the 3 or 4 spot waiting for the front-runners to tire. She's a quality horse and deserves to be the favorite here, no doubt. Here's the downside; take out her effort last out in the Grade I Gamely and this horse doesn't look obviously better than a couple of the others. A few other problems; she tends to need a race to come back between layoffs, and this is obviously a prep for the BC F&M Turf. She's not a fan of softer courses; Arlington was rated at yielding today and probably won't be "firm" even if listed as such. And her real standout efforts have come against small fields- 5 in the Gamely, 6 in the Matriarch. I'll be playing her in my horizontal plays, but not all out on top like I will with Tizdejavu.

Mauralakana, on the other hand, will be in the perfect position to pick up the pieces after a fast pace. She's been a Grade III horse until this year, when she seemed to turn a corner. So what's the key? Has Christophe Clement turned her around? Has she just improved with age? I don't know, but not lots of horses are way better as 5yos than 4yos, and there's part of me that says she's caught a few breaks the last few out. She's coming of her last at 1 1/2, which makes this one practically a sprint. I think she wins her first Grade I race tomorrow.

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Fire Phil Emery

One key to watch tomorrow, especially heading into race 6; the m/l favorite of both the 4th and 6th race came out of the Virginia Oaks. Neither ran particularly well, but it was a good droup of fillies. If Nijinsky's Ballet wins the fourth, upgrade Cherokee Queen's chances accordingly. If Nijinsky Ballet really flops, upgrade Seemingly in the 6th.

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Fire Phil Emery

One thing to watch on precious kitten is her foot. She missed some time with a quarter crack recently.

Good call on that HV. Forgot to mention it, spot on.

Race 10: Arlington MILLION!

We're down to seven horses in the Million with the scratch of Sudan earlier today. I think it's a shame that Sudan had to scratch; he was the lone speed in the field and had an honest chance against this group. Oh well.

Archipenko will go off as the favorite, and it's tough to argue with the logic. I don't think you'll get 2-1, unfortunately. There's a number of ways to interpret Racing Post Ratings; none of them works well, but all of them point towards Archipenko standing well above the field. Still, not all horses run their best after crosing the ocean, and there won't be much of a pace to fire at. But this horse made the flight to Dubai and ran just fine (although he did bomb his first time out in the desert), so that's something to hang your hat on if you're looking to beat the chalk.

Mount Nelson is listed as the second choice, although I think he'll be third by race time. His win in the last is his main point on the resume, while impressive, you toss that one and he looks pretty ordinary. That's a dangerous game, but it's also dangerous to bet career also-rans at 5-2, so pick your poison.

Amongst the Americans (sorta), Einstein looks to be the bettor's choice, although that may be based on name recognition alone. Einstein's a fun horse to watch, second to Curlin in the Grade I Stephen Foster on Dirt one race after winning the Grade I Turf Classic, the appetizer to the Kentucky derby. The connections are willing to enter him anytime, anywhere: turf sprints, dirt routes, classic distances, etc. The distance could be a problem, although his best career race came in the 10.5 furlong Gulfstream Park Turf, at least if you believe Brisnet (the DRF disagrees). He might have been caught in the Turf Classic had it been a 10 furlong race. He'll prefer going back to longer than a mile, but this may be a touch too much.

A couple of horses I actually saw, Silverfoot and Cloudy's Knight, appear to have little chance. Cloudy's Knight may have been the post time favorite a year ago, but he's come back from his 7 yo campaign a fair bit slower; John Henry and the Tin Man notwithstanding, these old geldings don't tend to just "get it" after throwing a bomb. As for Silverfoot: his win in the Grade III Stars and Stripes was his first win in 2 years and a nice solid race, but there's nothing in his form in the last 3 years that would indicate he can hang with these. Maybe he'll score a minor prize. Spirit One was caught in his last against lesser horses in France despite going off as the favorite; I don't have any reason to think that form will reverse itself in the first start off the plane.

That leaves me with one horse left: the #2, Stream Cat. I don't think Stream Cat is the most likely horse to win this race; that honor belongs to Archipenko. But 8-1 would be ridiculous; 5-1 would be acceptable. He came back off a long layoff following his 4yo campaign and nailed Cosmonaut in a race everyone assumed was Cosmonaut's to lose (only 4 ended up running the Arlington Handicap). The time was fine, his close was impressive, he obviously likes the track, and he'll be going the same distance as the last. The pace is likely to be slow with Sudan now gone, and he'll be forwardly paced with slow fractions (it's anyone's guess who'll take the lead, but I'm guessing Einstein.) This horse ran a perfectly acceptable 4yo campaign, missing last year in this same race by a length. And no disrespect to James Graham, but he's about to get a better rider in the irons in Leparoux.

My choice for the Million: Stream Cat.

Look forward to seeing some of you guys tomorrow, hope that some others decide to make the trip out, and here's hoping everyone ends tomorrow with a little bit more money than we go in. I'll post a recap by Sunday night.

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Fire Phil Emery

How in the heck can't it be my day?????? I won $2 in the Mega Millions!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Now you have to parlay that.

Speaking of parlay - anyone ever tried that? Do a place parlay - we used to do that at Maywood a long time ago. Start with two bucks, bet a horse to place, take the winnings and keep going. I think we made it to the last race one night up about 200 bucks and the horse we bet broke stride and there went it all down the drain. At least we only lost two bucks

Speaking of parlay - anyone ever tried that? Do a place parlay - we used to do that at Maywood a long time ago. Start with two bucks, bet a horse to place, take the winnings and keep going. I think we made it to the last race one night up about 200 bucks and the horse we bet broke stride and there went it all down the drain. At least we only lost two bucks [/quote]

Love that we usually did it to show everyone kick in a buck and let it ride! The last time we had it to $99 and my sister in law tanked it. I still tease her about. Same thing with tri's 3 people pick 3 horses.These are all fun and not costly! Everyone have a good racing day! I'm at work at the moment not giving me a chance to go to the Bud Billy Goat Parade!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I gotta go with Archipenko to win the Million.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

I meant come in second, of course. Just like every other horse I bet to win today.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

At least the 10 hit the board. The 11 got a horrible ride and was hung 6 wide on the first turn.

Sorry for all the failed-to-return text messages from everyone, the last few hours have been hectic. I had a few bad beats today I'm still stewing over.

I give the #1 in the first race as a live longshot. That was my best pick of the day, but appearantly word got off, he went off the board at 5-2, and I didn't play him. I then played the Pick 3 Races 2-4 with the 2-3-4-8/2-5-6-7-9/10-11 (a little different than I posted here) and watched Larry Sterling Jr. throw away my pick three in the final leg by taking the 11 horse, Cavan Thunder, about 6 wide on each turn. The 10 had a decent trip and placed but never really threatened.

Race 5 was pretty much a non-play. I pinned my hopes on the #1, seemingly, in the 6th, and lost quite a bit in the process (that was probably my worst play of the day). I sat out the seventh when I saw that St. Joe was going to be favored with Sebastian County right behind him. That was a good move on my part. Then I played $80 worth of Pick 3's for the Grade I stakes races.

Race 8 didn't go according to plan, but there was some indication that Winchester could improve with the addition of Lasix, and he won with little trouble in the Secretariat. I was still OK in the Pick 3s so long as no other real longshots came in. Maurakulana in the 9th helped my chances, and I came into the 10th with two live tickets on Archipenko and one on Einstein; either one would have paid about $160 bucks.

Alas, it was not to be; with the scratch of Sudan and the bad break of Einstein, no one decided they wanted to head out towards the lead, leaving the opening pace to Spirit One, who then decided to just stay at the front for the whole damn thing. Archipenko looked like he was going to come through in the final furlong but simply could not squeeze through the opening between Spirit One and Mt. Nelson (a replay of the Dubai Duty Free), was rated, and didn't have a move left.

By one disappointing measure I thought that I handicapped well, or at least, I handicapped better than the morning line setter. I had a handful of live chances who I loved at big prices who were being consistently bet down; the #1 in the first race from 20-1 to 5-2; St. Joe from 9-2 to 9-5; Cavan Thunder from 8-1 to 4-1; Stream Cat from 8-1 to 4-1. Alas, all but the first ended up losing, and they don't give out cash for betting along with the betting public. It was a sobering day, but there were a few lessons. First, the European horses did really well (or the American ones did really poorly; take your pick.) The Secretariat was a Euro exacta, the first three finishers in the Million were shippers, and even Maurakulana is a French-bred, although with plenty of American experience by this point. Second, pace does matter on the turf; both the sixth race and the 10th featured horses winning from in front- the sixth because no one decided to go out and challenge a lone runner for the lead, and the 10th because everyone sorta figured thed make their move at the end, but the pace had just been too soft. Had Einstin broken well, Archipenko wins that race; had Sudan been entered, either Sudan or Archipenko wins that race. That's why they run the races.

Fourth; there really needs to be a better way for handicapping foreign horses. Racing Post Ratings don't help much, times don't help at all, and "class" is nebulous; where was Spirit One's class? The races are tough to find online, even at a price (the Arlington Website did post a race or two for each horse, but that only takes you so far.) I also wish that there was some indication whether foreign horses had ever bled; one of the handicappers in the foreign seminar mentioned that there were rumors Winchester had bled before, and Spirit One's record has some signs that he may had bled before. But looking at PPs only tells you so much (pretty much, the finishing position and a few vague words) so you're left with very little to grasp at. So in the end, you're left either downgrading horses for no reason or upgrading them for no reason. Very frustrating.

Despite that, a very enjoyable day indeed.

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Fire Phil Emery

A bad day at the track is better than a great day at work. Thank God for the winner in the 5th. I have one in the the 1st at AP
Cloud's Knight I think he should be at the top of the strech be then!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Added some pictures from the race and day to my facebook

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=5 ... =563203956