NFL Sunday

Jacksonville +1.5 over Dallas

This line has moved from Jax -2.5 to Dallas -1.5. Jax made the playoffs last year in a stronger conference while Dallas missed out in an easier conference. Jax is 8-1 ATS in home openers while Dallas is 3-13 ATS on the road vs the AFC.

Green Bay +3.5 over Chicago

I think the Bears should be 6-7 pt fav today. Cannot figure out why this line is where it is. All of the guys in Pro Football Weekly took the Bears this week and with the line so low that just seems to easy to me.

SNF

Indy/NYGiants Over 48

Manning vs Manning. Can both teams score 3TD and a FG? I say yes. Wouldnt suprise me if both score in the 30's.

Sunday Night 7 pt. Teaser
Giants +10/Over 40.5
I don't recommend teasers as a long-term strategy, but I do play them in the NFL occasionally. I particularly like to play both sides of the same game. While the defenses generally are ahead of the offenses around the NFL, these two offenses have enough weapons to each put several scores on the board. And I expect both offensive coaches will feed into the frenzy of brother vs. brother at QB and let them both air it out a bit.

MNF 9/11

Minny/Wash Und 36

Minnesota doesnt have the big name on offense so I dont see them getting many big plays tonite against a decent Wash D. Last year the Skins beat the Bears 9-7 in the opener on this field and a score similiar tonite wouldnt suprise me.

Oakland Raiders +3 at home against Chargers.

Oakland went from an immobile quarterback with a big arm and bad decision making to a mobile quarterback with a big arm and even worse decision making. While they have a good running back, he could not put up 4 YPC last year behind an unimproved line. The recievers are a strength but Shell will have to battle just to make them play hard 50% of the time. The defense was unspectacular and got worse in the offseason.

They play a Charger team with the best running back in the league, the best tight end in the league, and an upper tier defense with some exceptional players.

.....and after saying all that San Diego is only favored by 3. I smell something fishy here, and since I am nowhere near the Viagra Triangle on singles night, it must be this game. JUST WIN BABY!

Yes well dolphin, but by that standard of "looks too good to be true; probably is", the packers shoulda covered at home yesterday too. I think the Raiders are a mess and Chargers are the play...but I'm not laying points on the road with a new QB in his first start. So I'll root for your play instead. Good luck.

I am however, playing the other dog...

Minnesota +4 vs. Washington
I said a month or so ago I thought Minny would be a good under play on the season win totals. This one, however, looks like one they can win. This line is inflated by at least 1 pt, if not 1.5 by the classic East Coast media bias. No matter what you watch on TV, you hear something about the NFC East being the "best division in football." People see this and believe this shit and the betting is skewed more toward the Skins and other NFC East teams. The Skins are a public team and the linesmakers know it. If you bet the Skins, you are nearly always paying a premium. Based on what we saw in the preseason, Washington might be the worst O in the league right now. The first team didn't get a single point and crossed the 50 just once. New England destroyed the first unit 41-0, in the full speed third preseason game. The Vikings don’t have many big names, but they do have some talent, a decent defense and pretty good O Line. Brad Johnson isn’t flashy and doesn't have the raw physical skills of Dante Culpepper, but he makes much better decisions and that was a major factor in the Vikings winning with Johnson and losing with Culpepper last year. More talented teams will cover 4 pt. nuts against Minnesota this year. I don't see Wash being one of them.

SD vs. OAK OVER 42 1/2
I know that traditionally this game is a low scoring affair. I also know Oakland's defense has looked more than serviceable in the pre-season. However, in this case I do see a high scoring game, Gates and LT will have their usual big games, Phillip Rivers will have people for getting about Brees' departure, and Oakland is going to make a game of this so look for them to match San Diego's output. I see this game being a 27-28 game.

I was thinking the same thing this morning. That wasn't a game I would have played. I was just trying to get to .500 on this contest. Chasing is never a good thing as I drop to 2-4.

note to self: don't bet week 1 NFL football. Oakland is BAD

good thing for that botched extra point attempt, the under came in

Green Bay +12
This is going to be a shoot out, Favre steps up for Monday night games. Ahman Green will have a good game, look for Greg Jennings to have multiple TD catches. GB's bad defense will be the downfall of the Packers in the end Philly wins by a touchdown.


Over 49 1.2
Green Bay's defense is awful, Favre is going to put on a show and get sacked 5 times.

Which week are you in?

Signed,
C2C's overworked bookkeeper/maker

note to self: stop making wagers.