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San Anita Gold Cup G1
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=101056		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:04 pm ]
Post subject:  San Anita Gold Cup G1
Anyone looking at this one?

Hoppertunity versus Melatonin, both about 3-1 shots on the morning line. There's also Hard Aces, last year's winner, and Imperative.

Doesn't seem like it is too hard to handicap, though it doesn't offer great odds. But I'd rather have lower risk with medium odds payout than betting on horses I don't know much about with higher odds.

BTW, just finished reading an autobiography on Jimmy the Greek. He wrote there's is no special system for picking the right horses. He advised choosing higher stakes races, where the horses are more reliable, picking a solid horse and following the changes in odds to look for the smart money coming in on a particular horse.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Can anyone post the PPs to this race? Would be much appreciated. Otherwise, will have to travel to Oakbrook OTB.
Author:  spmack [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
You don't ever give props to those who give good picks!
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
spmack wrote:
You don't ever give props to those who give good picks!


So they'll just make me worse? Leaving me to gaze in my crystal ball then?

Ha. You might have a point.

I didn't looks at any props for Lani in the Belmont when I picked it to show. And otherwise I picked the horses in my tri that came in 3, 4, 5.
Author:  W_Z [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
the TVG site usually lists all that the day of. if you haven't found it by tomorrow morning i can probably find it and post it.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Fuck the only props here ae given to JOR by JOR
Author:  newper [ Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Dignified Rube wrote:
Can anyone post the PPs to this race? Would be much appreciated. Otherwise, will have to travel to Oakbrook OTB.

http://www.equibase.com/rotw/fullpp.pdf

You can get a lot of big races for free at http://www.equibase.com/free/
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
newper wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Can anyone post the PPs to this race? Would be much appreciated. Otherwise, will have to travel to Oakbrook OTB.

http://www.equibase.com/rotw/fullpp.pdf

You can get a lot of big races for free at http://www.equibase.com/free/


Thanks. Some stellar speed figures by the horses in this race. But they are the cream of the class after all.

It seems like a lay-up taking Melatonin and Hoppertunity in an exacta, where you'll get 7-1 or 8-1. But Gary Stevens on Win the Space could be the spoiler along with last year's winner, Hard Aces, who had a good trip his last time out. Didn't seem like Second Summer had enough in the tank to hold on another 1/8 mi. in his last race, when Hard Aces was overtaking him at the wire.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Actually, I'm not so sure about Hoppertunity now. The horse hasn't run since March, when he came in third in the Dubai World Cup, and Baffert admitted that the horse may be short a workout coming in. Second Summer might be a better choice than this horse in a tri-fecta.

Baffert's horses come at a premium, but this hasn't exactly been his year. None of his horses in the triple crown races even finished in the money.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Dignified Rube wrote:
Actually, I'm not so sure about Hoppertunity now. The horse hasn't run since March, when he came in third in the Dubai World Cup, and Baffert admitted that the horse may be short a workout coming in. Second Summer might be a better choice than this horse in a tri-fecta.

Baffert's horses come at a premium, but this hasn't exactly been his year. None of his horses in the triple crown races even finished in the money.

FYI, this race will be televised tonight on the NBC Sports Network.
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
a little extra handicapping help for you, DR, although take this with a grain of salt. it's from TVG:

placing:

1 - #2 Second Summer 4-1
2 - #6 Hopportunity 3-1
3 - #4 Lieutenant Colonel 8-1 (long shot play)

Reasoning...distance and latest results for second summer; speed figures with hopportunity; good in dirt route and good chance to break an early lead with LC.

i like the long shot but wouldn't be surprised if it's a shit pick.

good luck.
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
newper wrote:
You can get a lot of big races for free at http://www.equibase.com/free/


i'm glad i stayed away from their "free" pick on churchill downs R3. they picked jacob rocks to win, exacta of #5 and #7, jacob rocks/metersrunnin.

neither one of those horses even finished in the top 4, and there were only 7 runners. goes along with my thoughts on equibase. very hit or miss. that's handicappin' for ya.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
W_Z wrote:
a little extra handicapping help for you, DR, although take this with a grain of salt. it's from TVG:

placing:

1 - #2 Second Summer 4-1
2 - #6 Hopportunity 3-1
3 - #4 Lieutenant Colonel 8-1 (long shot play)

Reasoning...distance and latest results for second summer; speed figures with hopportunity; good in dirt route and good chance to break an early lead with LC.

i like the long shot but wouldn't be surprised if it's a shit pick.

good luck.


I'm always open to advice from the residents experts here, even grouchy SPMACK :) .

I like Second Summer, but I like Hard Aces to either win or place at 6-1, when he won this race last year and is coming off a close second in his last race. I think I might bet him across. In the races that I looked at, Hoppertunity and Second Summer were fading down to the wire in 1 1/8 distances, but Hard Aces is kicking into high gear then.

When a trainer like Baffert says his horse could have used another workout and he was indecisive entering the horse in this race, that's a red flag to me. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's what my instinct tells me.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 6:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
love Melatonin horses for courses pick 4.... 7-2-2-7 and Mo Tom won...had the wrong Derby...not Kentucky but Ohio change of jockeys bingo!
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 6:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
love Melatonin horses for courses pick 4.... 7-2-2-7 and Mo Tom won...had the wrong Derby...not Kentucky but Ohio change of jockeys bingo!


I've got Melatonin keyed to win in a couple of tri and superfecta plays. He's clearly the best horse in the this race.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Busted by the sleeper, Win the Space.

Had the horses that came in 1,3,4. Knew Hard Aces would be close, and he was.
Author:  newper [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
W_Z wrote:
newper wrote:
You can get a lot of big races for free at http://www.equibase.com/free/


i'm glad i stayed away from their "free" pick on churchill downs R3. they picked jacob rocks to win, exacta of #5 and #7, jacob rocks/metersrunnin.

neither one of those horses even finished in the top 4, and there were only 7 runners. goes along with my thoughts on equibase. very hit or miss. that's handicappin' for ya.

Yeah their free picks are worth what they sell them for. I was recommending it more for getting a free past performance document on the bigger races.

For picks, I think Brisnet does a good job; you just have to watch out for maidens and foreign horses because they don't plug them into their formula.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: San Anita Gold Cup G1
Even though "Win the Space" was a 24-1 shot, there was reason to believe he was going to be competitive in this race and Hoppertunity not so much. Mike Smith was supposed to be riding him, until Baffert gave Smith a call and offered him Hoppertunity out of the blue. So the trainer for Win the Space has to find someone, and who better than Gary Stevens? This is where the trainer knew he had a horse that was running well, where he communicated that to Stevens who must have been impressed.

So the race goes predictably with Melatonin off the pace and then charges home down the stretch to take first. Win the Space, being in good form, runs the race of his life to place, thanks to his HOF jockey. Hard Aces and Hoppertunity were not hard to figure out they would be in the money. Second Summer was a question mark after fading at the wire in his last race at 1 1/8 mi, where maybe he didn't have the breeding or conditioning to hold on for another 1/8 mi, which is exactly what happened.

I'm sure there are handicappers that got this one right and saw a huge payoff with 24-1 and 9-1 horses in 2nd and 3rd. While I thought Win the Space was a threat, there was nothing really in the props to take him as seriously as the other horses mentioned above. That goes to show that the props, while helpful, don't tell the whole story. To be successful, you have to pay attention to the stories behind the scenes, too, like what Baffert was saying, which I picked up on. For instance, Lani, was a great story in the Belmont, and look what happened. What I should have done was hedge myself by taking Win the Space to place or show, but I didn't. Then again, I didn't have much at risk, so I didn't lose much, only $20. I bet efficiently by keying Melatonin.
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