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Arlington Million!!
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Author:  Dignified Rube [ Mon Aug 08, 2016 5:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Arlington Million!!
Looks like four European entries in this race, just to make it difficult for us yanks to handicap.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... t7DaysNews

THERE will be a strong European presence in Chicago on Saturday night as four British or Irish-trained horses feature among the 15 pre-entries for the Arlington Million.

In Tryster, Mondialiste and Deauville, the European quartet includes a trio of horses who have won at the highest level before, while Decorated Knight is a progressive four-year-old and arrives on the back of a career-best effort.

Only 14 horses can compete in the $1million contest but all four European raiders are guaranteed a run.

Good preparation

Godolphin's only success in the Million came when Sulamani was awarded the race in 2003 but they have a strong contender this time in Tryster, who, as you might expect for a horse who has proven so effective in Dubai, has reportedly taken the travelling in his stride.

"He's travelled over well," Appleby said. "He was out on the track on Saturday morning and the guys were very happy with him. It's all been straightforward so far."

Noted for possessing an explosive turn of foot, Tryster is thought to be at his most effective on turf when the ground is fast and Appleby is hoping a decent gallop on quick ground will allow the horse to produce his best.

"They are forecast thunderstorms during the week but hopefully they'll miss them as it's a case of the faster the ground the better for Tryster," the trainer said. "He's not the quickest from the gates but you wouldn't want him to be too quickly away as he likes to be held up and come off a fast pace."

Appleby also confirmed that Tryster would be ridden by William Buick, who won the race in 2010 on the John Gosden-trained Debussy.

Supporting card

The last European winner of the Million was Cape Blanco in 2011 and Deauville, winner of the Belmont Derby on his latest outing, carries the same Fitri Hay silks. Behind Deauville in sixth at Belmont was his Aidan O'Brien-trained stablemate Long Island Sound, who is the sole European pre-entry among 10 in the Secretariat Stakes, which also takes place on Saturday.

The feature race for fillies at Arlington is the Beverley D. Stakes and Aidan O'Brien is responsible for two of the 14 pre-entries with Belmont Oaks third Coolmore and Ballydoyle, a disappointment in the same race.

The Willie Mullins-trained Clondaw Warrior - who won the valuable Galway Hurdle on his latest start - is a fascinating pre-entry in the American St Leger, in which leading American stayer Da Big Hoss is sure to be popular on the back of his Belmont Gold Cup win.

The final declarations for all four races are made on Wednesday.

Arlington Million betting

William Hill bet: 7-2 Tryster, 4-1 Mondialiste, 9-2 Deauville, 7-1 Decorated Knight, World Approval, 10-1 The Pizza Man, 11-1 Wake Forest, 14-1 Takeover Target, 16-1 Kasaqui, Take The Stand, 25-1 Danish Dynaformer, Greengrassofyoming, 40-1 bar.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke
Author:  Rod [ Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


Who the fuck would pay that?
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


Who the fuck would pay that?

Big Fan
Author:  denisdman [ Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


I've been out to Arlington three times this year. I think I spent more on admission and concessions than the actual races. I probably need to open the wallet more for the gambling portion of the experience. And don't you think BF would be comp'd?
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
denisdman wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


I've been out to Arlington three times this year. I think I spent more on admission and concessions than the actual races. I probably need to open the wallet more for the gambling portion of the experience. And don't you think BF would be comp'd?

After the way he treated Frank? Neva
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I found out that fucking shyster Duchossois is charging $30 general admission what a joke


Who the fuck would pay that?

Big Fan


I like Big Fan, but that's funny. :lol:

I think I mentioned once before that I went for this first time about two months ago. After paying the $8 admission, I thought I would be able to sit in the upper deck. Not a chance. They call those box seats?

Only if I got tickets for box seats would I go again. Otherwise, you a breathing cigarette and cigar smoke all the time being in the G.A. area or getting beer spilled on ya.
Author:  a retard [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
I go at least 3x per month in the summer but am fortunate enough to get comped. Otherwise no way.

I don't get the comment however about smoke and beer spillage in GA. I sit there all the time and never have had a problem.

Nice thing about GA is you can bring a cooler. Pay the $5 but save $$$ on food and drink -- easy to smuggle gin or vodka in water bottles and then mix your own. No coolers allowed in the boxes.
Author:  walkrman5 [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Just heard Howard Sudberry on WMVP...said that winning horse owner gets $600,000....winning jockey gets $60,000
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
walkrman5 wrote:
Just heard Howard Sudberry on WMVP...said that winning horse owner gets $600,000....winning jockey gets $60,000

yep
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Arlington_Million_2016_Odds_and_Analysis_123#
Author:  spmack [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Someone tell me if this link works:

https://www.docdroid.net/JVEv6Xh/bw-pdf-viewer.pdf.html
Author:  W_Z [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
it works.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
spmack wrote:
Someone tell me if this link works:

https://www.docdroid.net/JVEv6Xh/bw-pdf-viewer.pdf.html

Fuck by the time it loads the race will be over
Author:  spmack [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
spmack wrote:
Someone tell me if this link works:

https://www.docdroid.net/JVEv6Xh/bw-pdf-viewer.pdf.html

Fuck by the time it loads the race will be over

Someone Google Doc it then..that should be faster.
Author:  a retard [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
It loaded in about 2 seconds for me, thanks.

Any chance of getting the Beverly D. Stakes too?
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
spmack wrote:
Someone tell me if this link works:

https://www.docdroid.net/JVEv6Xh/bw-pdf-viewer.pdf.html


Thanks man.

I'm going to apply the quant method on this one and take the most value in historical winning percentage versus the line odds.

BTW, you don't have to go to the track to see the race. I believe it's being televised on one of the local cable channels, CSN or something like that.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Easy Mondialiste
Author:  W_Z [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
i like World Approval and Decorated Knight so far. i just wonder how the odds'll look at race time. i'll post numbers on saturday when equibase shows up on the TVG site.
Author:  spmack [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
R5 - Bruce D. Memorial S
https://www.docdroid.net/Zc3lRCu/ap5.pdf.html


R6 - American St Leger
https://www.docdroid.net/mnwYbDr/ap6.pdf.html

R7 - Secretariat
https://www.docdroid.net/RbCihZ7/ap7.pdf.html

R8 - Beverly D
https://www.docdroid.net/vSNULr5/ap8.pdf.html

R9 - Arlington Million (updated with PP's)
https://www.docdroid.net/w9ailUN/ap9.pdf.html
Author:  spmack [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
R10 - Pucker Up
https://www.docdroid.net/a5CEHYB/ap10.pdf.html
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Well, I did my calculations.

Most value versus current odds in order: Dubai Sky, Decorated Knight, Kasaqui, and Pizza Man.

By winning percentage, where I give 1 for win, .5 for place and .33 for show, it goes:

dubai sky
Tryster
Decorated Knight
deuville
world approval

My calcs take into account all racing history, rather than only graded stakes. I found there is not enough data to go on if I data mine by graded stakes.

So I will bet Decorated Knight (10-1) and Kasaqui (20-1) to win and Dubai Sky (30-1) to place.

Otherwise, I'm taking Tryster, Decorated Knight, Deuville and World Approval in my tri-fecta.
Author:  spmack [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Easy Mondialiste

Walt I'm with you on Mondialiste but I read today that he's been extra sweaty morning during his US workouts...may wanna check and see around post time if he's washed out.
Author:  spmack [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
And I don't like front end horses here so that's going to eliminate Deauville and World Approval for me. There are so many of them in this race, they may burn each other out and that's when all the closers will pounce. Depending on his trip, Pizza Man may even get to the money. He's gonna get bet down because he's the local horse, but I don't expect him to win. If Mondialiste isn't washed out, that's my pick. Otherwise, I hope Tryster stays around 7/2 or higher.
Author:  W_Z [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
So Mondialiste is like the Ahman Green of horses.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
I really like this horse, Dubai Sky. Not heavily run by any means, so it should be fresh for 1 1/4 mi. distance.

Has enough experience, where moving up in class is not going to phase him.

Shows speed that will keep him on the pace (was only 1 length back in the opening 1/4 mi in the Spiral, ran in 22 sec.), while having one more gear for that last furlong.

He's seems like the type of horse that doesn't want anyone to beat him. Like that spirit.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
I started handicapping the Bruce D and started laughing #6 owned by Eddie O and Hanley...I have nothing wrong with the trainer...actually like her. Olcyzk talks a great game ,but putting a maiden in here is just stupid :drunken:
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
spmack wrote:
R5 - Bruce D. Memorial S
https://www.docdroid.net/Zc3lRCu/ap5.pdf.html Michael J Maker and Geroux 10-1??


R6 - American St Leger
https://www.docdroid.net/mnwYbDr/ap6.pdf.html Da Big Hoss Bet of the Day

R7 - Secretariat
https://www.docdroid.net/RbCihZ7/ap7.pdf.html Oscar Nominated the Ramsey always scare me

R8 - Beverly D
https://www.docdroid.net/vSNULr5/ap8.pdf.html Sea Calisi want to see how good she is and exacta box with Tuttipaesi

R9 - Arlington Million (updated with PP's)
https://www.docdroid.net/w9ailUN/ap9.pdf.html
Mondialiste sweaty of not 2nd to Tepin in BC Mile
Author:  spmack [ Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
Quote:
Picks & Ponderings ‏@picksponderings 4h4 hours ago
Decorated Knight (Million) got somewhat hot on the track today. Mondialiste (Million) less so, and less than he did earlier this week. - NN
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Aug 13, 2016 7:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington Million!!
In the Beverly, R8:

Pretty Girl 14, 13 Sea Calisi, 12 Faufiler, 9 Zipessa

Taking Pretty Girl 15-1 and Faufiler 15-1 to win.
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