When I calculated the implied odds from the horses winning percentage in the Arlington mil., I was one step short. I have made that final calculation, and it's kind of what I thought what the odds would show. They are very close to the house odds. Of course, the favorites are getting far below fair value. For example, with a historic winning percentage of around 20%, which should give him 5-1 odds, Beholder is getting only 3-1. In other words, you are giving up 14% in odds. With C.C., it's far worse, almost 47%.

Anyway, there are only two horses that are giving value and that's just around 5%. Dalmore and War Story. Taking the rest is a suckers game.

That said, if you're going by straight winning percentage, the model recommends Beholder, Dortmund and C.C. There's a big drop-off then to Hoppertunity as a 4th.

Those low-life cheating you-know-whats at Arlington no doubt scratched Decorated Soldier and Dubai Sky from the Million, because they were giving good value.

You can't really make a good odds line that way. For example, Beholder's historic winning percentage wasn't established vs. this group. In fact, she will almost certainly be a bigger underlay than you have her figured as being. I consider Chrome and Dortmund the only legitimate contenders in the race. They way they are coming to the race, I think if they ran it 100 times Dortmund would win about 40 of them. That makes 3/2 a fair price for him. You should get well more than that. Actually, I may be overestimating Dortmund here and have to adjust that down, but I certainly can't see him being any higher than 9/5 on my final personal line and he should be better than that on race day.

I consider Chrome and Dortmund the only legitimate contenders in the race.

Well, Walt, you know I think California Chrome is the best horse in the world going a mile and a quarter on the dirt. That said, I don't think this race is his objective. Sherman is pointing him for the Breeder's Cup and then the new big race at Gulfstream in January. Those are the two races they absolutely want to win. He may be good enough to win here anyway, but there's no doubt in my mind that Baffert has spent most of the summer getting Dortmund cranked up for this spot.

Don't most of the studs point to BC ?

A: California Chrome is a freak
B: The field is vastly overrated

Do you still think Frosted can run with this horse at a buck and a quarter? Also, I don't think that field was overrated at all. Beholder won this race last year with a gigantic move. Dortmund is a multiple graded stakes winner. Hoppertunity is a really good horse and the rest of them are legitimate hard-knocking handicap/stakes horses.