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| Louisiana Super Derby https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=102150 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Louisiana Super Derby |
6) Dalmore (8-5) – He is certainly making a class drop after tangling with the likes of California Chrome, Beholder, and Dortmund in the Pacific Classic. While it took the son of Colonel John some time to come around for trainer Keith Desormeaux, it is clearly evident that he has turned the corner in most recent starts. An allowance win in late May was followed by his first stakes win in the Grade 3 Affirmed at Santa Anita. The last one was obviously a bit much, but all in all, his fifth-place, middle of the pack finish was further proof of his progressive nature. There is no reason to believe he cannot bounce back from the defeat against tougher to run big in the Super Derby. He should be much closer early than his top opposition which gives him the advantage. Getting Good 2) Mo Tom (7-5) – Away since winning the $500,000 Ohio Derby, the often unlucky son of Uncle Mo has consistently accounted well for himself in his career. A confirmed stretch runner for trainer Tom Amoss, the GMB Racing charge sandwiched a trio of unfortunate trips in the middle of nice stakes wins in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, and his most recent win at Thistledown. Of course those unlucky starts came on the road to the Kentucky Derby, and the Derby itself, so a little building up of his confidence in some of these 'other' derbies makes sense. I still believe he is one of the ten best of the foal crop, but this race might put him at a distinct pace disadvantage. Jersey Joe Bravo will ride. The Chief Rival 5) Texas Chrome (4-1) – The winner of the local prep, this son of Grasshopper is a consistent winner having taken 6-of-11 lifetime. He stepped out of his comfort zone when leaving the southwest to test big names like Gun Runner and American Freedom in back-to-back starts. He could not handle either, but he did not embarrass himself. The Prelude victory over Sharp Azteca was nice, and demonstrates that he likes the track. I think the top two are more talented, but you have to respect a horse that fires every time. Likes to Win 1) Whateverybodywants (6-1) – The late developing son of Giant Oak has done nothing wrong this year. After two solid wins to begin his season at Arlington Park and Prairie Meadows, he has demonstrated that he fits with graded stakes horses in his last two. In fact, he ran a very good race to be second in a big field, and behind only the highly regarded Cupid in the West Virginia Derby last time. He was 74-1 that afternoon, but my guess is that you never see him at those kind of odds again. Late Developer 3) Mending Fences (20-1) – The second of four horses in here who competed in last month’s Prelude, Mending Fences finished third that day. While the winner of that one deserves a prominent billing in here, I find it hard to recommend the other three. As far as this one, the son of Colonel John is marginally the one I like best of the bombers. Hoping for a Check 4) Classy Bird (30-1) – Fifth in the local prep, the Birdstone colt did rally a bit that day at odds of 45-1 against a very slow early pace. Not sure if he will see much pace in here either, but rallying for fifth again is a distinct possibility. Could Pass Tired Horses 7) Fort Pulaski (40-1) – The lightly raced Evangeline shipper was seventh in the Prelude. I cannot predict any better for him against this field in the Super Derby. Too Much Too Soon |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Louisiana Super Derby |
looks like shit. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Louisiana Super Derby |
W_Z wrote: looks like shit. That's one way to look at it. The M/L odds are completely rigged. Mo Tom and Dalmore should not be getting better than 3/1. No, not very interesting when there are no odds. I'll probably pass. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Louisiana Super Derby |
$10 Superfecta Mo Tom, Dalmore, Texas Chrome, Whateverbodywants Could be a 25-1 to 30-1 play. Why not? |
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