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Conference Tournaments
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Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Mar 07, 2007 9:41 am ]
Post subject:  Conference Tournaments
I probably should have started it last week but the big boys start to play this morning. I'll have to head over to the commode with my newspaper and see if I am inspired.

In answer to your question from the earlier thread Coast:

De Paul +4.5 against Villanova

De Paul is coming into this tournament on a roll. No one has ever doubted their talent and now that talent is maturing. This will be the first taste of Big East Tournament play for the Demons, which worries me. However, it will be the first taste of tourney play for Nova's top player as well. When Coast asked the question, I had not looked at the newspaper as of yet. I figured the line would be 1 or possibly a pickem. I almost fell off the bowl when I saw the Demons getting 4.5. I love this play

Syracuse -3 against UConn

What, what, what? Did the 2006 Huskies show up in New York and no one told be about it? UConn is really a bad team. They are young and as typical for a young team, they have been bad away from home. Syracuse is a team on the rise. I always hate to play them away from the dome, but they have a good history in MSG as well (won the championship just last year). I think this line is way out of wack and I expect the orangemen to win by double digits.

West Virginia -3 against Providence

I think Providence will play like a team that knows it has no shot at the tourney. West Virginia is not great but they are good enough that this line should be more than 3.
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Mar 07, 2007 11:32 am ]
Post subject: 
One angle I like to play in big conference tourneys is the under in early games being held in professional stadiums (stadia?). The area behind the basket in pro venues is much more open than typical college homes. It seems to have a significant affect on both field goal and free throw shooting, especially in the first games these teams play at the stadium. I have no quantifiable evidence, only my observation.
Author:  Chus [ Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
Terrible coaching by Wainwright in the second half. From 5:00 - 3:00, they are just settling for long jumpers. In the last minute and a half, when they need 3's, they are going to the hoop and throwing up bad shots.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Mar 07, 2007 8:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
Wainwright has been a big disappointment. DePaul had two guys who will make NBA rosters (Mejia and Chandler) and other very serviceable college players. Clarke's talent was never realized. The guards often were out of control and showed poor decision-making. I think I could name 100 coaches who would have done more with this talent.

It's so sad. They were getting so much better with Leato's recruiting and discipline, but couldn't keep him. Then they hire Grampa Jerry for his retirement cruise in his hometown.

DePaul vs. Illinois in the NIT. That would be fun. Weber probably wouldn't agree to it.
Author:  BD [ Wed Mar 07, 2007 10:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think Illinois is going to the tourney provided they don't lose to Penn St. tomorrow.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Mar 07, 2007 10:45 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think they are borderline with 1 W and a sure thing with 2. Might possibly depend on whether any additional non-tourney teams play their way in.
Author:  Chus [ Thu Mar 08, 2007 8:31 am ]
Post subject: 
Wright St winning the Horizon league definitely hurt the Illini. Any more surprise teams winning their conference tourney spells trouble for Illini nation. I hope my previous statement does not hurt recruiting.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Mar 08, 2007 1:18 pm ]
Post subject: 
So. Miss +3 vs. Houston
I have not bet a Tom Penders coached team in many years, but do welcome the opportunity to take points against him. Here we have a young, but pretty decent and disciplined team, playing an undisciplined bunch that plays fast and puts up a lot of shots. The problem is that this Houston team doesn't have the shooters to be very effective playing that style. Eustachy may have his personal issues in his past, but the guy can coach. And he has a group of freshmen who have now been through the conference wars. I believe they will win this outright, but I generally prefer the points.
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Mar 08, 2007 2:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Took Sothern Miss yesterday succesfully. It's been a good morning with me winning on Michigan and Xavier and pushing on Florida State. Kentucky is looking good for me so far.

Looking at ND -1 against Syracuse. I hear a lot of love for the Orange and they are good in the Big East Tourney. ND is a team flying under the radar. They can score in several different ways and defend as well. Definitely not a sexy team but I think they take care of the Orange by more than 5.

Arizona -2 against Oregon. Arizona was a great fade team for 3/4 of the year...and then something happened. They have won on the road and been a good cover as of late. It's a small number for an Arizona team that is shockingly underrated.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Mar 08, 2007 5:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
Tonight, I've got NC State +9 vs. Duke, Tennessee -3 vs. LSU and Boise-Fresno UNDER 144.
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Mar 08, 2007 5:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
Thanks for the heads up on Southern Miss, Coast. I got it at 3.5 and took it purely on your recommendation. Good win. I'm liking Tennessee as well.

Early on, I love Louisville laying the 4.5.

Taking a little look at Nebraska getting 4 against an Oklahoma State team that is RIP.
Author:  Chus [ Thu Mar 08, 2007 6:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
Thanks for the heads up on Southern Miss, Coast. I got it at 3.5 and took it purely on your recommendation. Good win. I'm liking Tennessee as well.

Early on, I love Louisville laying the 4.5.

Taking a little look at Nebraska getting 4 against an Oklahoma State team that is RIP.


I had Houston. They missed 3 out of 4 FT's in the last 30 seconds. Very upsetting, but I will not wish anyone to perish in an auto accident.

San Diego St -4 (-120)
SD ST over 140.5
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:08 am ]
Post subject: 
Illini fans can be happy I'm fading them Friday night.

Indiana-2 vs. Illinois
I think that esteemed hoops expert Danny Mac has nailed this Illini team. Live by the trey, die by the trey. Even though they are missing their best three point shooter, Smith, this team seems to have become more of a three point shooting team without him. And even though the Illini can take it to the rack and score inside, particularly with Pruitt, they apparently prefer to wing it from the outside with Frazier and Carter. It worked on Thursday as Frazier had a career day. Against IU, which defends the post and the trey, that dog won't hunt. I may have issues with Sampson's ethics, but I don't question his ability to game plan a matchup like this.

I'm not one who thinks Illinois is now in the tourney after again beating Penn State (ranked 187 in the RPI) . They still do not have a single quality win away from home. Their best wins away from home are Bradley (39 in RPI) and Missouri (60) at neutral sites. Their best true road win is Northwestern (167). A resume without any quality wins away from home is a resume that's not good enough for an at-large bid. The UC may be their home away from home, but I don't think they get one here either.

Illinois vs. DePaul in the NIT. Make it happen Kelvin.
Author:  good dolphin [ Fri Mar 09, 2007 9:37 am ]
Post subject: 
Another angle to look at in the next few days is tired legs. Teams playing in their third game in a row versus a team playing in its second game in a row are vulnerable, especially if you play 2H lines. There were also an unusual amount of OT and 2 OT games to weaken the legs today.

Kansas -10.5 against Oklahoma

Florida State +12 against UNC
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
Absolutely, GD. Also, one of my favorite angles is going UNDER with two teams playing their third in three or even when the rare team is going 4/4. If another team gets to their fourth game in four days, I'll look to fade them. George Mason was a 4/4 and they failed to cover....(but that was a very very bad beat). The 3/3 under angle actually is a little on the losing side this year...but tomorrow morning early is the CUSA final. And that historically is a grinder. Both teams will be 3/3 and Rice could be in a 4/4 situation. The Houston-Rice game will end tonight about 8 pm and then the winner will be playing 3/3 (houston) or 4/4 (rice) in the champ. game that tips off at 10:30 am sat. That's less than a 12 hour turnaround. That's another angle to look at..fading teams in short turnarounds. And tomorrow the total will be a high number with Memphis playing either Houston or Rice.
Author:  Mr. Reason [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 7:59 am ]
Post subject: 
Coast2Coast wrote:
Illini fans can be happy I'm fading them Friday night.


Thanks Coast, you're a good man.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 11:42 am ]
Post subject: 
Reason, I do what I can for my Illini friends. They can eat steak with their eggs this morning, while I have Grits and Crow.

Memphis-Houston UNDER 143
As noted yesterday.

NC State +7 vs. Va. Tech
Can Pack win three in a row? Perhaps not, but they do seem to match up awfully well with VT.

Texas -3 vs. OSU
An extra shot of expresso on this one. Longhorns played their worst half in falling way behind to Baylor and OSU played their best ten minutes of the season yesterday to beat AM. One day is not a trend.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 12:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
Additional action on Miss. State -2 vs. Arkansas, Ohio State-Purdue OVER 128 and and Cal Poly SLO +4 vs. the Beach.
Author:  Chus [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 5:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
NC State +7 vs. Va. Tech
Can Pack win three in a row? Perhaps not, but they do seem to match up awfully well with VT.


Not only did I get State at 7.5, which I bought to 8, I have NC St on the money line ( +315 )
Author:  Psycory [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 5:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
Listening to Mike Patrick in the NCST vs. VT game..he is getting so indignant about VT's foul shooting, I wonder if he has some action for VT in this game
Author:  Matt Murton's Beard [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 6:47 pm ]
Post subject: 
Anyone else loving Georgetown at -2 tonight?
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 7:09 pm ]
Post subject: 
Matt, I am going to have a little action on GTown also.
Author:  Beardown [ Sat Mar 10, 2007 7:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
Could you guys give your reccords for these confrence tournaments? I don't feel like figuring it out. Rough estimate if you don't know either.

My old man is going to Vegas for the big tourny and I'll be calling in bets to him. I want to see who I should go with on this board. Thanks.
Author:  good dolphin [ Mon Mar 12, 2007 7:45 am ]
Post subject: 
I would not base your picks on any of my intestinal feelings.

I think Coast had a couple of websites where guys make predictions and keep their records. I looked up a new one the other day called predictem.com. I wouldn't post as I don't pay as much attention to basketball as I would need to.
Author:  Chus [ Mon Mar 12, 2007 8:28 am ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
Listening to Mike Patrick in the NCST vs. VT game..he is getting so indignant about VT's foul shooting, I wonder if he has some action for VT in this game


It is really painful listening to Patrick and Vitale.
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