Chicago Fanatics Message Board
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/

4/8 Derby Preps
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=105910		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:00 am ]
Post subject:  4/8 Derby Preps
Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland 10th): Of the three races today I think this one is most likely to produce the Derby winner. Very tough field with three legitimate contenders. The pace scenario for McCraken figures to be negative. Even if he has the ability to overcome that to win, I doubt they're going to gut the horse to get him across the wire first with the Derby less than a month away. A third place finish should give him enough points to qualify. So that narrows it down to Tapwrit and Practical Joke. Tapwrit has the kind of running style that I prefer. He can lie close to the lead without expending himself and gobble up the leaders when the boy says go. I have some distance concerns with Practical Joke but this race figures to set up really well for him. He made a huge middle move in his three year old bow in the Fountain of Youth and was just a little short. Brown should have him screwed down tight for today's race. Plus, the price should be right.

Wood Memorial (Aqueduct 10th): This looks like a really weak Derby prep to me. Cloud Computing has the perfect all around profile for a Classic/Derby horse except for the fact that he got a late start (did not race at two) and Brown has to play catch up in order to make the Derby. The prudent thing to do with this horse would be to forget about the Derby and point for Baltimore, but unless you're Bob Baffert you don't get many shots at the Kentucky Derby with a horse like this. In any case, I think Cloud Computing lays over this field.

Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita 8th): The fact that Mastery broke down has given us a great betting race here. A big field with no real standout. Of course, it's a very tough race to handicap and the winner is likely to need a trip. The pace figures to be pretty hot in this one. I have serious distance concerns about Iliad who figures to be the favorite. In the San Felipe where he chased Mastery he resented the whip in the stretch. I think the March 9 allowance race that produced three starters for this one may have been tougher than any of the traditional California Santa Anita series preps. Reach The World and Battle Of Midway should both be able to work out good trips here and I think they may be the two best horses anyway. It's tough for me to separate them but I'm giving the edge to Reach The World who had a tough trip and nearly caught Battle of Midway in that allowance race and who also gets Mike Smith. If you're looking for a big longshot in the gimmicks, Term Of Art is looking for more ground and here he gets it. There are some scenarios in which I could actually see him winning, i.e. a complete pace meltdown.

BONUS: Madison Stakes (Keeneland 8th): Constellation is the only real Grade 1 animal in this race. She should be a good enough price to really hammer here. My biggest concern is High Ridge Road. I think Clothes Fall Off has an outside chance but things would really have to go right for her. I'm using those two in the gimmicks behind Constellation.
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
what do you think of Gormley at SA there?

my gal chloe's white soxs is running tonight but she has been shit lately. getting high odds too...may take a look.

btw, on a side note...i watched this race last night. very sad. :(

http://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/sydney-cup-abandoned-midrace-after-chaos-on-first-lap/news-story/b17946b2b676671b10aba87bec34040f
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
W_Z wrote:
what do you think of Gormley at SA there?


I hated his race in the San Felipe. Gormley has a dosage that suggests he should be a router, but to me his performance shows he doesn't really want a distance of ground. Also, he was washed out badly the last two times out. This horse is a nervous motherfucker. I don't think the Santa Anita Derby crowd is going to help him.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
In the Wood Memorial, I don't see a ton of early speed on the inside in the race, which should set up the closers well. That said, I think the race favors Battalion Runner and Mo Town. While he is moving up in class for this race, Batallion Runner showed his late pace chops the last time out, when he was just putting it into high gear when he hit the wire at 1 1/16 mi. Pletcher must have had a good reason for passing on the Florida Derby in favor of the Wood for B.R., so I like him in this spot. Mo Town I am hoping will regain his form after his disappointing performance in the Risen Star. His Uncle Mo/Indian Charlie pedigree suggests he should be able to hand the 1 1/8 mi. distance well, and he's got Javier Castellano riding. I don't think it will matter whether he's on the pace of not.

Cloud Computing didn't impress me that much in his last race. For one, it was a weak field and the finishing time was slow for 1 1/16 mi at 1:46, when he finished second. He didn't make up any ground on J. Boys Echo down the stretch, when the latter's odds could not have been better than 8-1 in that race. Maybe he is the pro-typical Derby horse, as JORR says, but for having run only two races, I see his 5/2 M/L odds as too pricey, when I believe there's better horses in this race.

The wild card in this race is Irish War Cry. It looked like the horse pulled up hurt in the last race, but it could have been he was tired out from dueling with Three Rules on the pace. The jockey, Rosario, just ran an awful race, and didn't do what his trainer told him to do in laying back. He's been replaced this time around. Given his impressive victory in the Holy Bull against good competition in the likes of Gunnerva and Classic Empire, when he won from off the pace, I think he deserves another chance.

As for the long shots, both Glenrichment and Stretch's Stone look interesting. Though he's moving up in class, Glenrichment's speed figures have improved in each of his four races. On the other hand, Stretch's Stone has done nothing wrong in his three races, albeit allowance ones, with win, place and show finishes. With both at 15-1 on the M/L, they could have value as show bets.
Author:  spmack [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Really hope to see McCraken put on a show.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
The Blue Grass J boys Echo..McCraken is looking toward the 1st Saturday in May
SA Derby played Reach the World in Derby Futures 4 @ 28-1 Mike Smith choice to ride ..he knows a tad bit about horse flesh than me!

Keeneland race 6 pick5 8-4 (longshot of the day )-6 (here is the class) 2-3 Good luck to everyone
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
The big fella hit T. Loves A Fight to place and show at Aqueduct in the 7th!!!

Thought I had Benevolence, too.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
I can't believe Practical Joke couldn't run down that maiden rat. They should probably lock O'Neill up. I'm having a rough day, necks and noses.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
2/1 is not enough for Reach The World here.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
W_Z wrote:
what do you think of Gormley at SA there?


I hated his race in the San Felipe. Gormley has a dosage that suggests he should be a router, but to me his performance shows he doesn't really want a distance of ground. Also, he was washed out badly the last two times out. This horse is a nervous motherfucker. I don't think the Santa Anita Derby crowd is going to help him.



I guess Gormley can get a mile and an eighth. We'll see about a buck and a quarter next month. He's one of only three dual qualifiers if you put stock in that.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Had Battle of Midway to place and show. Put it on the board, YESS!!!!

Did not see Gormley winning it. Didn't think he had it in him to go the distance.

Couldn't understand why everyone was so high on Iliad. He choked in the San Felipe down the stretch at 1 1/16 mi. How was he going to make it all the way to 1 1/8 mi??

I had Reach for the World, Battle of Midway and Iliad in the Tri. Too bad. Mike Smith :oops:
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Tomorrow I'm gonna get even or get even worse.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
JORR's right, the Bluegrass was a debacle. McCracken's injury put me off a little, so I went with Tapwrit to win. I thought with the extra 1/16 mi, he would catch McCracken down the stretch, like how he was coming on in the Sam F. Davis at the end. But Jose Ortiz shot himself in the foot. The bad start is forgivable, but he decides to run the whole race five wide, making the horse run all that extra distance? Didn't even have a fair chance. I still think he was the best horse in the race, though. Maybe he'll be 10 to 15-1 in the Derby now.

The horse that ran the best race today was Practical Joke. He dueled mightily with Irap to the end. I give him the Brave Heart award today. You have to take both him and Gormley more seriously now.

I'm off now until the Derby.
Author:  W_Z [ Sun Apr 09, 2017 4:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
W_Z wrote:
what do you think of Gormley at SA there?


I hated his race in the San Felipe. Gormley has a dosage that suggests he should be a router, but to me his performance shows he doesn't really want a distance of ground. Also, he was washed out badly the last two times out. This horse is a nervous motherfucker. I don't think the Santa Anita Derby crowd is going to help him.



I guess Gormley can get a mile and an eighth. We'll see about a buck and a quarter next month. He's one of only three dual qualifiers if you put stock in that.


Image

i should've went ahead and gone with him...
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Prediction: McCraken will never beat Tapwrit again.
Author:  Rod [ Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Prediction: McCraken will never beat Tapwrit again.


I've been wrong before, Walt. I'll be wrong again. It's a tough game. McCraken's Derby price went up. I think he's still a solid contender. I don't think they were trying too hard with him Saturday.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Prediction: McCraken will never beat Tapwrit again.


I've been wrong before, Walt. I'll be wrong again. It's a tough game. McCraken's Derby price went up. I think he's still a solid contender. I don't think they were trying too hard with him Saturday.

be a little more humble damn
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 4/8 Derby Preps
You read the quotes from Wilkes after the race and he really wanted McCracken to get a race under his belt before the Derby. He liked his fight but didn't take much stock in the 3rd place finish. I agree - his price went up, but he's still a contender.
Page 1 of 1 All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
https://www.phpbb.com/