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Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
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Author:  spmack [ Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
Put up or shut up time for Classic Empire. I'll put the PPs up later.

Image
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
spmack wrote:
Put up or shut up time for Classic Empire. I'll put the PPs up later.

Image


Horse scares me...he refuses to workout at times :?
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
Malagacy. that's my gut.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
W_Z wrote:
Malagacy. that's my gut.

12 key the 7-9 tri
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
I don't think Malagacy has a shot in here from that spot. Personally, I think he was pushing his distance limitations at a buck sixteenth. Horse looks like a nice miler to me.

spmack and I were talking about Classic Empire and this might be a race where you look back and say, "Damn, I got $6.80 on that horse against those rats." But I do understand the fears expressed by Walt. The horse has a lot of issues. I wouldn't bet him without seeing him in the post parade.

Petrov and Untrapped look like they should get good set-ups in here, but they get good set-ups every time and never seem to finish the deal.

This is a tough race to bet. I could see Lookin At Lee or Silver Dust popping at a huge price.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 15, 2017 2:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
I'll take Malagacy, Untrapped, Sonneteer.



.
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
:(

shoulda believed in classic empire.

walt, if you got any good leads comin' in, let me know. :(
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
W_Z wrote:
:(

shoulda believed in classic empire.

walt, if you got any good leads comin' in, let me know. :(

I'll check Gulfstream and Woodbine...I'm fuckin exhausted
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
I'm benching myself for the way I handicapped that race.

I had Malagacy and Classic Empire in exactas with other horses but couldn't find Conquest Mo Money. Everything was in the pp's, but I fell victim to class bias. If there's one thing I've learned from the last couple of years of handicapping, class doesn't mean "doo doo" if the horse has the speed.

JORR just killing it with the Looking at Lee pick and throwing out Malagacy.

So will Classic Empire be the Derby favorite now?
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arkansas Derby - Last major prep before the big one
Dignified Rube wrote:
So will Classic Empire be the Derby favorite now?


From the Courier Journal today.

"Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia saw enough from Classic Empire in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby that he’s prepared to make him the favorite for the May 6 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Classic Empire, the 2-year-old champion, bounced back from a rough winter to win the $1 million, Grade I Arkansas Derby by a half-length over Conquest Mo Money.

“I was really impressed with the way Classic Empire was able to come back like he did in a 12-horse field and run such an awesome race,” Battaglia said. “I think he’ll be cranked up for the Derby. I think he will be the favorite.”

Battaglia wouldn’t speculate on the possible morning-line odds for Classic Empire. Those will be set after the May 3 draw for the Derby.

“It all depends on how he trains and if Classic Empire doesn’t bounce back after three weeks,” Battaglia said. “That’s kind of daunting. But I still think he has more talent than all of them. For his first race at a mile and an eighth, he did everything good horses do.”

Battaglia said Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming and Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry could be co-second choices for the Kentucky Derby.

“Those two are close,” Battaglia said. “The rest of them, I don’t see it.”

“I think he’ll be cranked up for the Derby. I think he will be the favorite.”
Professional oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, on Classic Empire
The Arkansas Derby was the last major prep race for the Kentucky Derby, and the field for the 143rd running of the Run for the Roses is taking shape.

The top 20 horses in the final points standings are eligible to enter, and 18 of them are considered probable to enter. The two outliers came out of the Arkansas Derby – Conquest Mo Money (second) and Malagacy (fifth).

Conquest Mo Money ranks 12th on the points list with 60 but is not nominated for the Triple Crown. Co-owners Tom and Sandy McKenna would have to pay a $200,000 supplemental fee by May 3. The McKennas did not immediately return a call for comment Sunday.

Malagacy, who ranks 14th on the points list with 50, had been undefeated in three races before the Arkansas Derby.

The first two horses on the points-list bubble are Cloud Computing (third in Wood Memorial) and Untrapped (sixth in Arkansas Derby)."
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