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Ohio Derby
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=107121		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:17 am ]
Post subject:  Ohio Derby
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Decent field, but it doesn't look like it's going to be much of a bettor's race. You have to throw out the performances of all the horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby---Girvin, Untrapped, Fast and Accurate, and Irap---since none of them did anything. Girvin is the one to beat, but will probably go off at 2/1 or less.

Hinton looks capable of an upset, and maybe Sorry Erik, too, with Kent Desormeaux aboard. When Kent partners with his brother, Keith, on dirt, they're winning 30% of the time.

These San Anita races on Saturday look terrible. They can't get more than five horses for two $100,000 graded stakes races on dirt at 8.5 furlongs?? Why have the race at all? Pitiful.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Ohio Derby
Someone wrote this about the race on a message board. Thought it was good enough to add here. :)

"Irap was pointed to taking the Buckeye State trek and Julien Leparoux can stay planted on the rail while chasing what should be moderate fractions. Girvin and Mike Smith will be the dynamic duo for railbirds armed with wagering cash, while long-shot Talk Less has the best local rider in Luis H. Colon -- who could give a two-turn tour of the dirt oval while wearing a blindfold. But Sorry Erik may be poised to play Wreckless Eric with handicappers who boisterously dismiss the Desormeaux brothers.....as if they only came to Cleveland for a selfie with LeBron James and autograph from Uncle Drew.'
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ohio Derby
Easy...waved my crucifix over the program and it stopped over Hinton...there you go
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ohio Derby
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Easy...waved my crucifix over the program and it stopped over Hinton...there you go


He looks good on paper, but hasn't beaten anybody yet.

A number of these horses have struggled with races longer than 1 1/16 mi., so I'm thinking conditioning and pedigree will be key. The favorites---Irap, Untrapped, Girvin---are all coming off six week layoffs and therefore, might not be in their best form for a 1 1/8 mi. race. I would be inclined to bet the closers, even if they are not the ones with the shortest odds, like Talk Less in the three post. He has the fourth best numbers in the simulation as a 10% winner. Anything more than 9/1 odds would be good value for him. Hinton is next as a 9.2% winner.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ohio Derby
How do you like Untrapped in this spot, JORR? Think he can beat Girvin?

I don't think you're giving up too much in him compared to Girvin and Irap, and the price is better at 6-1.

If you believe in mean reversion, his speed is set to bounce back from after the Arkansas Derby and Rebel (and Kentucky Derby). He's been worked hard, having run five races already this year. The rest probably did him good. Asmussen says he expects him to be sharp.
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