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Field of Dreams
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=107280		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Wed Jul 05, 2017 4:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Field of Dreams
The Iowa Derby is tomorrow with a good line-up.

Image
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
I got ahead of myself. The Oaks is today, and the Iowa Derby is tomorrow.

The Oaks is a tough one to handicap. A number of the horses are of even strength, and several of the horses are stepping up in distance to 1 1/16 mi.

Ever So Clear is giving you fair value at 7/2 as the favorite, but the speed figures are lacking. I like what I see in Pinch Hit at 10-1, but wouldn't take her for less.

I like Swing and Sway, Pinch Hit and Tapa, Tapa, Tapa on top, but Ever So Clever underneath. This is purely speculative today.
Author:  denisdman [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
How about you guys handicap the garbage that will be running at Arlington tomorrow? It means I can drink more and pay attention less as I'll just run with anything that looks decent.

I can't wait for one of those six horse races where two horses get scratched. Or the classic 1A and 1B "horse".
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
I revise my Oaks picks.

#3 Shane's Girl Friend (5/1), #5 Ever So Clever (7/2), #2 Pinch Hit (10-1).

I think Shane's Girl Friend is talented enough to win, but is in a tough spot.
Author:  Rod [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
denisdman wrote:
How about you guys handicap the garbage that will be running at Arlington tomorrow?


I'll look at it tonight.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Dignified Rube wrote:
I revise my Oaks picks.

#3 Shane's Girl Friend (5/1), #5 Ever So Clever (7/2), #2 Pinch Hit (10-1).

I think Shane's Girl Friend is talented enough to win, but is in a tough spot.

weight break......jockey.....got go with Smith's horse
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I revise my Oaks picks.

#3 Shane's Girl Friend (5/1), #5 Ever So Clever (7/2), #2 Pinch Hit (10-1).

I think Shane's Girl Friend is talented enough to win, but is in a tough spot.

you got the weight break......jockey?.... I.got go with Smith's horse
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I revise my Oaks picks.

#3 Shane's Girl Friend (5/1), #5 Ever So Clever (7/2), #2 Pinch Hit (10-1).

I think Shane's Girl Friend is talented enough to win, but is in a tough spot.

Good Luck
Author:  W_Z [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
i don't know why tapa tapa tapa is changing equipment but it's probably because of the draw. apparently this is a speed race which suits her well but it's hard to count out mike smith. especially where he's drawn.
Author:  W_Z [ Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
nevermind, #1 and #2 scratched.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
The Iowa Derby is a pick-em between Petrov, Hence and Impressive Edge.

No clear-cut favorite, but I think Impressive Edge has a small edge in speed and recent performance.

Hence has run one good race, not enough to get excited about. Petrov is more consistent, but you'll be lucky to see 3-1 on him.

McCormick is intriguing, but again he's too short a price. I could see him in the tri-fecta before Hence.

I don't think this is a bettor's race at all.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
7, 2/5, 2/5 in the 8th at Prairie Meadows.

#7 Brooklynsway
#2 Walkabout
#5 Danzatrice

Keep your eye on two 8-1s in the 4th, #1 Seems Discreet and #9 Smoke Out. They should contend against favorite 3-1 American Holiday.

Worth an exacta wager.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Dignified Rube wrote:
7, 2/5, 2/5 in the 8th at Prairie Meadows.

#7 Brooklynsway
#2 Walkabout
#5 Danzatrice

Keep your eye on two 8-1s in the 4th, #1 Seems Discreet and #9 Smoke Out. They should contend against favorite 3-1 American Holiday.

Worth an exacta wager.


Seems Discreet and American Holiday!

$2 Exacta paid $36.50.

Smoke Out came in 4th. I nearly had the trifecta with 5, 1, 9
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Hence from last to first. Much respect. Had him keyed 1 and 2.

Needed Impressive Edge Second and Petrov 3rd.

Wasn't taking chances on this race.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
denisdman wrote:
How about you guys handicap the garbage that will be running at Arlington tomorrow? It means I can drink more and pay attention less as I'll just run with anything that looks decent.

I can't wait for one of those six horse races where two horses get scratched. Or the classic 1A and 1B "horse".


In the 8th at Arlington today, #5 Pizza Man is the one to beat, though he's very pricey at 8/5 on the M/L. Even though he has not run on grass before, #2 Bodhisattva has the speed profile to compete for a win at 12-1. He rates equal to #6 Applicator at 5/2, and only slightly behind Pizza Man.

If you want to really get crazy, #7 Feodor at 30-1 has an outside chance in this race with a plus 100 speed figure at 2 miles. The horse is in a good spot coming in second off the layoff with nothing to lose.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Walt, Arklow is running today in the 10th at Belmont, listed at 8-1. Winner of his last two, including a G2 in May at 15-1.

Practical Joke is against Battalion Runner in the 6th at Belmont in a small field.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt, Arklow is running today in the 10th at Belmont, listed at 8-1. Winner of his last two, including a G2 in May at 15-1.

Practical Joke is against Battalion Runner in the 6th at Belmont in a small field.

that Mike Smith ....one of the best ever...supposed to rain in NY Arklow is part of my stable....I think Honk Kong starts in a bit ..I 'll let you know if something catches my fancy
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt, Arklow is running today in the 10th at Belmont, listed at 8-1. Winner of his last two, including a G2 in May at 15-1.

Practical Joke is against Battalion Runner in the 6th at Belmont in a small field.

that Mike Smith ....one of the best ever...supposed to rain in NY Arklow is part of my stable....I think Honk Kong starts in a bit ..I 'll let you know if something catches my fancy


I like the 9th at Prairie Meadows as a betting race, a $300,000 G3 for 3 yr. olds and up at 1 1/8 on dirt. Spmack's Texas Chrome is in there.

There was good value at this track the last two days.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Field of Dreams
Hit an exacta at Belmont in the 7th. Should have had the tri-fecta, too, but Stallwalkin Dude couldn't hang on for third after getting bumped at the quarter pole.

I decided to quit after the 8th at Arlington, which I should have passed on. I would have been better off betting the Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows. I had it Dolpus, Iron Fist and Texas Chrome, and it went Iron Fist and T.C. 1 & 2. $2 exacta paid $132, ouch. But if Dolphus had come in 1 or 2, that exacta would have paid nothing.
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