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Withers/Holy Bull
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Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:41 am ]
Post subject:  Withers/Holy Bull

Withers Firenze Fire and Avery Island looked to be favorites....Firenze Fire I think his last to a lot out of him.Marconi broke his maiden I want to see how good he is! Holly Bull Romans has 3 in here I'm going with Audible......and the 1st at Gulfstream the one horse owned by former Chicago Printing Giant Frank Calbresw....,Good Luck

Author:  Rod [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

I like Bal Harbour a lot at what I believe will be a square price.

Holy Bull is a tough race. I think I'm going to try Tiz Mischief. He's been working like a fucking gorilla. But he'll need a little pace up front.

Author:  W_Z [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

watch for #9 in R9 at Gulfstream. 4-1 M/L. 2nd in last race, won 2 previous races. 1st time at GP i think. lezcano on board. should run well.

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

Firenze Fire in the Withers and Free Drop Billy in the Holy Bull.

6-1 is fair value on Free Drop Billy. If you throw out his last race, he's the best horse in the field. Giant strides like Arrogate and he's got the most class.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

W_Z wrote:
watch for #9 in R9 at Gulfstream. 4-1 M/L. 2nd in last race, won 2 previous races. 1st time at GP i think. lezcano on board. should run well.

way to go I Had the 2

Author:  W_Z [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

And nice call on audible!

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

W_Z wrote:
And nice call on audible!

Thanks had the exacta at the Big A and they dq'd the 4...Audible runs a little like the Bull

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

What kind of rigged bs odds was Gulfstream offering in the Holy Bull?

Three 3-1s and a 9-5, in addition to the odds on the rest of the field. That's well more than 1.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

Dignified Rube wrote:
What kind of rigged bs odds was Gulfstream offering in the Holy Bull?

Three 3-1s and a 9-5, in addition to the odds on the rest of the field. That's well more than 1.

Jesus Christ 3 years and you still don't know what the fuck parimutuel is?

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
What kind of rigged bs odds was Gulfstream offering in the Holy Bull?

Three 3-1s and a 9-5, in addition to the odds on the rest of the field. That's well more than 1.

Jesus Christ 3 years and you still don't know what the fuck parimutuel is?


And you still don't understand the mathematics of odds. With parimutuel the sum of the odds should still be close to 1 or 100%. That did not happen yesterday.

Because the sum of the odds exceeded 100%, the track is skimming off the win pool.

Author:  Rod [ Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
What kind of rigged bs odds was Gulfstream offering in the Holy Bull?

Three 3-1s and a 9-5, in addition to the odds on the rest of the field. That's well more than 1.

Jesus Christ 3 years and you still don't know what the fuck parimutuel is?


And you still don't understand the mathematics of odds. With parimutuel the sum of the odds should still be close to 1 or 100%. That did not happen yesterday.

Because the sum of the odds exceeded 100%, the track is skimming off the win pool.



Huh? Of course they are. That's how they make their money. It's called takeout.

Here is a chart that shows you the takeout for each pool at each track. You can see where you are getting the most bang for your buck:

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/ ... table.html

Walt is an old school guy who attempts to pick winners rather than evaluate chances. For someone like myself who makes his own line and will not bet unless I get what I consider value+, the takeout doesn't really matter practically except that obviously a higher takeout will naturally result in me making less bets. Beyond that, I prefer to play tracks that aren't trying to gouge the shit out of me.

Anyway, does anyone think the Kentucky Derby winner ran yesterday?

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
What kind of rigged bs odds was Gulfstream offering in the Holy Bull?

Three 3-1s and a 9-5, in addition to the odds on the rest of the field. That's well more than 1.

Jesus Christ 3 years and you still don't know what the fuck parimutuel is?


And you still don't understand the mathematics of odds. With parimutuel the sum of the odds should still be close to 1 or 100%. That did not happen yesterday.

Because the sum of the odds exceeded 100%, the track is skimming off the win pool.



Huh? Of course they are. That's how they make their money. It's called takeout.

Here is a chart that shows you the takeout for each pool at each track. You can see where you are getting the most bang for your buck:

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/ ... table.html

Walt is an old school guy who attempts to pick winners rather than evaluate chances. For someone like myself who makes his own line and will not bet unless I get what I consider value+, the takeout doesn't really matter practically except that obviously a higher takeout will naturally result in me making less bets. Beyond that, I prefer to play tracks that aren't trying to gouge the shit out of me.

Anyway, does anyone think the Kentucky Derby winner ran yesterday?


Thanks for the chart. I get the takeout, but it seemed egregious yesterday at GP in this race. Will have to do the math to compare.

Audible was quite impressive. When I first looked at the race, I had him as my winner, which I put in my original post. But I figured that he may not hold up class-wise, because he had only won one lesser race. I was wrong. Then again, I almost got Free Drop Billy right. If Audible was not in the race, Free Drop Billy wins.

I don't think this was Free Drop Billy's best race, because of the fast pace. 23 and change in the opening 1/4 and 47 for the 1/2 mi. That left him empty down the stretch after being 3rd off the pace. He was better in the Breeder's Futurity last Oct.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

I'll be off the horse crap stuff here....bunch of gimmick guys as for Rube Twice a Prince would have one the Belmont if Secretariat wasn't running ...Much latter :wink:

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Withers/Holy Bull

Conquest Windycity at 16-1 upsets Mind Your Biscuits (2-5) and One Liner (8-5) over 7f in the 3rd at Gulfstream.

Had 'em to win and he did. :salut:

Great race!! Even the announcer afterward said, "Wow!".

Jose Ortiz my new favorite. That horse won solely because of his grit and determination. Never let up with the whip.

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