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Ruler of the Nile
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=111038		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Rod [ Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Ruler of the Nile
I don't know what the deal is with this horse. I've heard him described as "the next Secretariat", I'm guessing based on a workout where somebody caught him going two furlongs in 20 flat. He was scratched out of a maiden special on Saturday. He was the 8/5 favorite at the time he was scratched. That seemed a little generous for "the next Secretariat", but I was thinking that maybe he is super fast but also unsound. But then he worked a 4 furlong bullet this morning at Palm Beach Meadows. Very odd. Is he going in the Fountain of Youth?

Anyway, the race he scratched from was won by a sharp looking colt for Bill Mott named Penalty. I think this particular maiden will turn out to be a real key race. I would add Crafty Jack, Ark in the Dark, and King Zachary to your watch lists.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't know what the deal is with this horse. I've heard him described as "the next Secretariat", I'm guessing based on a workout where somebody caught him going two furlongs in 20 flat. He was scratched out of a maiden special on Saturday. He was the 8/5 favorite at the time he was scratched. That seemed a little generous for "the next Secretariat", but I was thinking that maybe he is super fast but also unsound. But then he worked a 4 furlong bullet this morning at Palm Beach Meadows. Very odd. Is he going in the Fountain of Youth?

Anyway, the race he scratched from was won by a sharp looking colt for Bill Mott named Penalty. I think this particular maiden will turn out to be a real key race. I would add Crafty Jack, Ark in the Dark, and King Zachary to your watch lists.

My eye is on the Tampa Bay Derby :wink:
Author:  Rod [ Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't know what the deal is with this horse. I've heard him described as "the next Secretariat", I'm guessing based on a workout where somebody caught him going two furlongs in 20 flat. He was scratched out of a maiden special on Saturday. He was the 8/5 favorite at the time he was scratched. That seemed a little generous for "the next Secretariat", but I was thinking that maybe he is super fast but also unsound. But then he worked a 4 furlong bullet this morning at Palm Beach Meadows. Very odd. Is he going in the Fountain of Youth?

Anyway, the race he scratched from was won by a sharp looking colt for Bill Mott named Penalty. I think this particular maiden will turn out to be a real key race. I would add Crafty Jack, Ark in the Dark, and King Zachary to your watch lists.

My eye is on the Tampa Bay Derby :wink:



You seem like a Vino Rosso kind of guy. Do I have it right?
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
World of trouble
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Gulfstream is corrupt, not betting there anymore.

In the 1st today, there was a horse, Entwistle, who had odds of 8-1 at post-time. Mid race, when the horse was threatening to win, it's odds dropped to 6-1.

What a bunch of crooks. I called their parimutuel office and let them have it. If it would do any good, I would file a complaint with the State of Florida, Department of Business and Professional Regulation, Division of Pari-Mutuel Racing. But I doubt it would do any good.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Dignified Rube wrote:
Gulfstream is corrupt, not betting there anymore.

In the 1st today, there was a horse, Entwistle, who had odds of 8-1 at post-time. Mid race, when the horse was threatening to win, it's odds dropped to 6-1.

What a bunch of crooks. I called their parimutuel office and let them have it. If it would do any good, I would file a complaint with the State of Florida, Department of Business and Professional Regulation, Division of Pari-Mutuel Racing. But I doubt it would do any good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPWL4ICJO0U 1st I don't see 8-1 on the 2 I see the final odds being locked in the 1 was 10-1 final odds 9-1 ...but it's always something with you... odds ...jockey took the horse up.....maybe Bingo's your game :?
Author:  Rod [ Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvylxQmOxXM

This race is taking a lot of heat on social media. The winner, Admiral's Win, went off at 45-1 and wound up paying only $58.60.

I don't believe there is any chicanery going on behind the scenes. One merely must understand the modern parimutuel game and the way it is played.

The "whales" have formed syndicates that receive huge rebates. Many of them are simply playing to break even. Do the math. What's a five or ten percent rebate worth if you bet $200 million a year? Some of these groups bet a lot more than that.

Many of these groups are using "black box" software similar to what is used in trading stocks. The algorithms calculate which horses are overlays and the proper amounts to bet. These groups may also have the advantage of getting the last bet, although I do not believe there is any past-posting going on with regularity.

I'll give you some advice if you find this situation bothersome. The computer guys seem to shy away from the tartan surfaces. Thus, the regular player has a better shot at Woodbine and Turfway. I don't include Arlington because the fields are usually so short.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvylxQmOxXM

This race is taking a lot of heat on social media. The winner, Admiral's Win, went off at 45-1 and wound up paying only $58.60.

I don't believe there is any chicanery going on behind the scenes. One merely must understand the modern parimutuel game and the way it is played.

The "whales" have formed syndicates that receive huge rebates. Many of them are simply playing to break even. Do the math. What's a five or ten percent rebate worth if you bet $200 million a year? Some of these groups bet a lot more than that.

Many of these groups are using "black box" software similar to what is used in trading stocks. The algorithms calculate which horses are overlays and the proper amounts to bet. These groups may also have the advantage of getting the last bet, although I do not believe there is any past-posting going on with regularity.

I'll give you some advice if you find this situation bothersome. The computer guys seem to shy away from the tartan surfaces. Thus, the regular player has a better shot at Woodbine and Turfway. I don't include Arlington because the fields are usually so short.


I have read a lot of criticism about Gulfstream, from their chronically late post-times to the past-posting fudging, not to mention the jockey taking a dive when he was riding the pick 5 pool winner at more than $500K, which you brought up a while back, JORR. It's a shame, because you don't find the higher stakes races at other tracks, where there is consistency with the horses, other than mainly Aqueduct and San Anita in the off-season. But there is no question in my mind from the data I've seen in my own modeling, and I'm one of these "black box" guys, that the track frustrates the betters through manipulation of odds through the pool portion of its take-out. In each race, there are usually just one or two horses that have a positive expected ROI (see my site for a greater explanation). The track does care whether you win or lose; it wants you to lose all the time, which is why the favorites typically have negative expected ROIs. Even if you win with the favorite once, if you play the same horse with the same negative ROI odds over and over again, you will eventually lose money. It also means that they don't have to pay as much with the exotics pools, if the favorites are winning more in those bets than the long-shots.

If there is a "sacred cow" track in the country, which is not given to shenanigans, I would like to know what it is.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
What about the Fountain of Youth today?
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
What about the Fountain of Youth today?
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Dignified Rube wrote:
What about the Fountain of Youth today?
:lol:
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
What about the Fountain of Youth today?
:lol:


:lol: :lol:

I think Storm Runner has a chance. Let's see what Marconi's price is. I don't think Good Magic needs to win today.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
I was such an idiot in the 5th at GP. Here am I thinking that Celestine was going to romp in the Sand Spring Stakes, because it had a high win probability of 40%, that I didn't play the horse with the highest expected ROI in Team of Teams at 84%. Of course, Team of Teams ran away with it in the upset at 12-1. Even when this is the only way I will bet now, taking a positive ROI horse, I blew it. There are no sure things in horse racing. Gotta take the good price when you can get it.

Image
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
What about the Fountain of Youth today?
:lol:


:lol: :lol:

I think Storm Runner has a chance. Let's see what Marconi's price is. I don't think Good Magic needs to win today.


A lot of green horses in this race, but I'd like to see Machismo win. Good name for a horse.

His margin of victory in his last race, a $50K maiden claimer over 6 1/2f, was 11 lengths! That was a big improvement over his previous race in mid January.

15-1 would be a more than fair price on this horse.

I don't usually bet the trifectas, but Good Magic, Strike Power, Storm Runner and Machismo look good in a tri-fecta box.

Image
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Well the way the 1st Saturday in May looks like I'm not making a wager since 1993 that I haven't bet....so far no good ...looking for a closer and don't see one
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Pretty good effort from Machismo to get 4th behind the favorite, Good Magic, when it was the first time he had run a route.

He was stepping way up in class from $50K in his last to $400K in this race.

Hope he gets another couple chances to qualify for the Derby. Just needs to be a little closer to the lead, but he showed he can finish at the 1 1/6 mi. distance.
Author:  Rod [ Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Well the way the 1st Saturday in May looks like I'm not making a wager since 1993 that I haven't bet....so far no good ...looking for a closer and don't see one



Well, Walt, as I'm sure you know since the Derby went to 20 horses, and particularly since the new points system has effectively eliminated sprinters from entering, a horse pretty much must strike the front at the eighth pole or sooner to have a chance.

I would keep my eye on Marconi if I were you. I believe he is Pletcher's best going a distance of ground and his Fountain of Youth was sneaky good against the flow.

Also, Ruler of the Nile worked another bullet. I would expect him to start in a maiden this weekend. I believe that last scratch may have been by the judges because he wouldn't go in the gate.

I haven't been hands on with a horse in fifteen years and I have no idea what kind of super drugs they're putting in them these days, but it is interesting if you watch races from Europe or Hong Kong, just how docile the horses are going into the gate. Better yet, check out a Triple Crown race from the 70s. The horses loaded like kittens. These modern thoroughbreds are raging out of their minds.
Author:  Rod [ Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
He's in the second race at Tampa on Saturday. I believe he is a potential Preakness horse. He breaks his maiden on Saturday, then an allowance in a early April. Possibly the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day.

Also, I think Walt's horse, World of Trouble has a decent chance to wire the field in the Tampa Derby. He's only appeared on the work tab twice since early January, but Servis says that's bullshit. He supposedly has unpublished works where he breezed a mile. Vino Rosso should also be strong in there, but the pace looks to be less than contentious.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
up next at Tampa....I shall see 1-5
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ruler of the Nile
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
up next at Tampa....I shall see 1-5



Very professional. Looks like he won't mind more distance.
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