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Rebel Stakes
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Author:  Rod [ Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:45 am ]
Post subject:  Rebel Stakes
I'm looking to cash a big ticket in the Rebel. I believe Solomini will be way overbet. He's been off 98 days and he may not be 100% tight. The pace in this race figure to be quite contentious.

The logical play here is Magnum Moon. He's already run the kind of figs it will take to win this race. He should be sitting in a good spot right behind the speed and you're likely to get in the 3/1-7/2-4/1 range on him. I'd still say anything less than 5/1 isn't really great for him in this spot.

Combatant is another logical contender who looks to get a decent set-up and has already run fast enough to win here. He may be a nice overlay and is likely to be betable. He's very strong at 7/1 or more.

Finally, if the pace really melts down, High North has a shot and giant price.

Good luck out there!
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm looking to cash a big ticket in the Rebel. I believe Solomini will be way overbet. He's been off 98 days and he may not be 100% tight. The pace in this race figure to be quite contentious.

The logical play here is Magnum Moon. He's already run the kind of figs it will take to win this race. He should be sitting in a good spot right behind the speed and you're likely to get in the 3/1-7/2-4/1 range on him. I'd still say anything less than 5/1 isn't really great for him in this spot.

Combatant is another logical contender who looks to get a decent set-up and has already run fast enough to win here. He may be a nice overlay and is likely to be betable. He's very strong at 7/1 or more.

Finally, if the pace really melts down, High North has a shot and giant price.

Good luck out there!


Not to rain on your parade, but Solomini is the whale in a pool of guppies. None of the other horses measure up statistically. Classwise, Sporting Chance comes next, followed by Combatant. Sporting Chance has faltered at the distance, while Combatant at 8-1 has been competitive, albeit with several second place finishes.

If I wanted to roll the dice on this race, I might take a 'flyer on Pryor" at 30-1 on the M/L. Horse has seen good progression, breaking its maiden last time out by almost 6 lengths over 1 mi. on dirt. This would be a huge step-up in class, but you never know with Oaklawn being its home track. Has had good works over 4f in March at 0:48.

Title Ready is interesting to me, too, with two wins in his last 3 starts. Also stepping up big in class. Has good late speed. 9-1 would be fair value for the horse against a monster like Solomini.

Image
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
But I hope you're right, JORR, that Solomini doesn't fire coming off the 3 month layoff. Means choice prices for the other horses.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Dignified Rube wrote:
Not to rain on your parade, but Solomini is the whale in a pool of guppies. None of the other horses measure up statistically.


I'm not sure what statistics you're looking at that lead you to such a conclusion. The horse is short on figs. If he repeats the best race he's ever run, that isn't gonna get it done in here. If you bet him, you have to hope he steps up.

I love this race. You're going to have a weak and overbet favorite.

Also, Pletcher didn't bring his horse to Arkansas just so he could change his watch.
Author:  spmack [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Good point about Pletcher and Oaklawn. He doesn't ship em there unless the horse has a chance. Malagacy won the Rebel last year, and don't forget about Overanalyze winning the Arkansas Derby in 2013 and 41-1 Danza winning the Arkansas Derby in 2014.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Not to rain on your parade, but Solomini is the whale in a pool of guppies. None of the other horses measure up statistically.


I'm not sure what statistics you're looking at that lead you to such a conclusion. The horse is short on figs. If he repeats the best race he's ever run, that isn't gonna get it done in here. If you bet him, you have to hope he steps up.

I love this race. You're going to have a weak and overbet favorite.

Also, Pletcher didn't bring his horse to Arkansas just so he could change his watch.


Probabilities based on simulation of speed figures and custom winning percentage adjusted for stakes calculations. With winning percentage, you have an argument that he's overbet at 1-1. He's a 3-1 there, but judged by speed, he's 1-1 or less.

Image

This is what I wrote about this race. I'll be watching the price of Title Ready out of the one hole.

"On paper, the $900K Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park this Saturday appears to be a race that will be decided by whether Baffert trained, Solomini, after a three-month layoff can regain the form that propelled him to finish no worse than second in three G1 races toward the end of last year, including a win in the Los Alamos Futurity in December, in which he defeated McKenzie by ¾ of a length. Other than Solomini, Sporting Chance and Combatant, there is not a lot of class in this race. Sporting Chance has one G1 victory, coming in the Hopeful Stakes last September at Saratoga, albeit at 7f. The horse finished 3rd his last time out in the G3 Southwest Stakes in February, when he was beaten by 7 lengths. Son of Scat Daddy, Combatant, has been competitive in his last three starts, getting three 2nd place finishes, including one in the Southwest. But his only win was in his maiden race at Churchill last October. As the second favorite, Pletcher trained, Magnum Moon, is making his third start and the second at two turns, after winning his first two races. If there is going to be a surprise in the race, it may be with Title Ready in post one, who has two victories in his last three races, including a win by nearly four lengths in his last at the same 1 1/16 mi. distance as the Rebel. Another horse, long-shot, Pryor, has shown good progression in his four starts, winning his maiden in his last at 1 mi. at Oaklawn by 6 lengths, in which he went wire-to-wire."
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
I am against Solomini.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Baffert's comments on Solomini: ""He's been training really well, so we're just hoping for a good run. He is not going to wow you in the mornings, watching him train. But he shows up in the afternoons. He just likes to gut it out. He has a big heart."

And Pletcher on Magnum Moon: "He has been training well enough and running well enough to deserve a chance in a race like this. He had a little bit of time off during the summer. He is a talented colt who showed us a lot of potential (early). We felt that he would benefit from the extra time and January is when he was ready (for his debut)."

Asmussen on Title Ready: "He's always had a lot of talent. I thought he had a little inconsistency there, and weren't getting the best out of him. The addition of blinkers and being a little more aggressive with him has been more effective."
Author:  leashyourkids [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
JORR, just make this simple. What horses should I pick and on what bets?

Thank you in advance.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
I was kind of dismissing him, but Sporting Chance could have a shot after reading this below. Lukas has been pleased with his workouts.

"Sporting Chance (7), Lukas/Velazquez; winner of the G1 Hopeful was pushed around quite a bit last out in the Southwest finishing a distant third; several solid condition drills and jock change to Hall of Famer Johnny V puts this Tiznow squarely back in the mix."
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Watching the Rebel,,,thinking the Derby winner is coming from over the pond. The Azeri love Farrell on a dry track the 6th at he Big A Panic Attack friends 1st starter ...I'll go all the way back to a January 27th work...work an across the board bet :D
Author:  spmack [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Someone on the Horse Racing Nation posted this, and I kinda agree with it. Baffert is planning for Justify to run in the Arkansas Derby.

Quote:
It looks like Baffert is anticpating Solomini to not dominate the Rebel field. If Solomini romps the Rebel, there is no way he's sending Justify to the Arkansas Derby.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
leashyourkids wrote:
JORR, just make this simple. What horses should I pick and on what bets?

Thank you in advance.



I don't like to tout anyone, because my betting is dependent on the prices at post time. But I think these horse will have bettable prices:

In the Rebel, I plan on keying Magnum Moon, mainly on top and using Combatant, High North, Curlin's Honor, and Zing Zang below. I am against Solomini.

In the Jeff Ruby, I plan on keying Blended Citizen and using him with Dreamer's Point, Hazit, and Ride A Comet.

Also, in the Azeri at Oaklawn, I like Blue Prize.
Author:  W_Z [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Watching the Rebel,,,thinking the Derby winner is coming from over the pond. The Azeri love Farrell on a dry track the 6th at he Big A Panic Attack friends 1st starter ...I'll go all the way back to a January 27th work...work an across the board bet :D


10-1 M/L to 3-2? :?
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
W_Z wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Watching the Rebel,,,thinking the Derby winner is coming from over the pond. The Azeri love Farrell on a dry track the 6th at he Big A Panic Attack friends 1st starter ...I'll go all the way back to a January 27th work...work an across the board bet :D


10-1 M/L to 3-2? :?

fuck I spit beer out....no way at 3-2....Joe must have dumped a tondle!
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Oaklawn 8th Pick 3... 1-2-3
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Image

Also, I believe Dreamer's Point is live as hell at Turfway sitting at 31/1.
Author:  JORR's Conscience [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Had a weird thing happen today. I shook an 8-ball, and all it told me is that it would see me again tonight.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
I hope you bet Blended Citizen with both hands!
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Title Ready and Sporting Chance are my two. I think Lukas has Sporting Chance ready.

Also have Solomini in trifecta, with Title Ready and Magnum Moon.
Author:  spmack [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Great call JORR.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
spmack wrote:
Great call JORR.



Thanks. I couldn't catch the Pick-3. The gambler's glass is always half-full. :lol:
Author:  spmack [ Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Also JORR, it should have been noted that the jockey Luis Saez chose Magnum Moon over Sporting Chance. Always something I look at when trying to make a decision. Glad that Luis Saez won, he's one of my favorite jocks. He has his Derby horse.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rebel Stakes
Magnum Moon is definitely a contender for the Derby.

How does a horse like that with only two starts, none of them graded stakes, come out of nowhere and not only win, but dominate in a $900K race?

For a second, I thought Sporting Chance was going to slingshot around the leaders at the quarter pole, but came up empty. A good mile horse, but that's all.

Combatant did a nice job to keep up with Solomini. Those Scat Daddy sons, with Flameaway the other, are doing well this year.
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