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Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
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Author:  spmack [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
All I care about is Justify vs Bolt D'Oro. Everyone else will be also-rans.
Author:  Rod [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Justify appears to have a HUGE pace advantage vs. Bolt d'Oro.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Good Magic and Flameaway in the Blue Grass. It will be one or the other.

I'm rooting for Good Magic to rebound, but Flameaway is my early Derby horse.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Keeneland opens today!
Author:  spmack [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Wood Memorial: http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploa ... Wood18.pdf


Blue Grass: http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploa ... rass18.pdf


Santa Anita Derby: http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploa ... erby18.pdf
Author:  spmack [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Flameaway is a good horse, and if you get anything close to the 6/1 you might have to go into your reserves. I'm thinking he gets bet down to 7/2 or 4-1. Runs to the front and never looks back.

Not good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, though.
Author:  Rod [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
I'm probably going to go with Marconi in the Bluegrass. And use Zing Zang, Tiz Mischief, and Good Magic underneath.

I think Enticed is weak in the Wood. I'll probably try King Zachary or Vino Rosso depending on the prices.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
In the Blugrass what the fuck is wrong with Quip.....horses can't win 2 in a row? 6-1 :shock: Keeneland if it's playing out tomorrow like it is today Flameway a tired 3rd.JOR Marconi see who's listed as the jockey?????? The same guy that's going to guide Mendelssohn to a Derby victory
Author:  Rod [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the Blugrass what the fuck is wrong with Quip.....horses can't win 2 in a row? 6-1 :shock: Keeneland if it's playing out tomorrow like it is today Flameway a tired 3rd.JOR Marconi see who's listed as the jockey?????? The same guy that's going to guide Mendelssohn to a Derby victory



Quip is scratched. Going to Arkansas.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the Blugrass what the fuck is wrong with Quip.....horses can't win 2 in a row? 6-1 :shock: Keeneland if it's playing out tomorrow like it is today Flameway a tired 3rd.JOR Marconi see who's listed as the jockey?????? The same guy that's going to guide Mendelssohn to a Derby victory



Quip is scratched. Going to Arkansas.
Where's spmack getting these PP's Central Liquors?
Author:  W_Z [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the Blugrass what the fuck is wrong with Quip.....horses can't win 2 in a row? 6-1 :shock: Keeneland if it's playing out tomorrow like it is today Flameway a tired 3rd.JOR Marconi see who's listed as the jockey?????? The same guy that's going to guide Mendelssohn to a Derby victory


Ryan L. Moore is one of the best jockeys overseas.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
W_Z wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the Blugrass what the fuck is wrong with Quip.....horses can't win 2 in a row? 6-1 :shock: Keeneland if it's playing out tomorrow like it is today Flameway a tired 3rd.JOR Marconi see who's listed as the jockey?????? The same guy that's going to guide Mendelssohn to a Derby victory


Ryan L. Moore is one of the best jockeys overseas.

I know :roll:
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
I'm sticking to my guns with Good Magic and Flameway in the Blue Grass. As the most talented in the race, Good Magic will bounce-back in his second off the rest.

Enticed should win the Wood, but could be threatened by Evaluator at 20-1, who has been sharp at this distance.

I think class wins over speed in the San Anita, so going with tried and tested Bolt D'Oro over the quick Justify. Justify in only his third race and yet to have gone more than 1 mile. This race is at 1 1/18 mi.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Enticed is a weak and vulnerable favorite in the Wood. I'll say the winner of that race will be from this group: King Zachary, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope.

One caveat though. On paper this looks like a paceless race with Old Time Revival dancing along on an uncontested lead. I don't believe he really wants the buck and an eighth distance, but I would watch very carefully to see if there is any kind of speed bias at Aqueduct today. If so, his chances increase tremendously. However, although there appears to be no other speed in the race, with the Derby points on the line I'm guessing there will be some horses that are ridden more aggressively than we would expect.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Enticed is a weak and vulnerable favorite in the Wood. I'll say the winner of that race will be from this group: King Zachary, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope.

One caveat though. On paper this looks like a paceless race with Old Time Revival dancing along on an uncontested lead. I don't believe he really wants the buck and an eighth distance, but I would watch very carefully to see if there is any kind of speed bias at Aqueduct today. If so, his chances increase tremendously. However, although there appears to be no other speed in the race, with the Derby points on the line I'm guessing there will be some horses that are ridden more aggressively than we would expect.


Don't think Old Time Revival has enough in the tank to go another 1/8 mi. That's why I think Evaluator is attractive in this race, because he is flying late and could catch the tiring horses. Look what he did in his last in the Sleepy Hollow, when he ran past horses down the stretch on the outside. He's worth 10-1 for a place bet, but if he gets the shock win, that's a big cash in at 20-1 on the M/L. I think it is an inneresting play.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
$2 Tri's
Wood 4-8-6
Bluegrass 7-11-12
Santa Anita Derby 3-1-7 sorry spmack 2-2 $66,000 :(
Author:  Rod [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Johnny V. rode the hair off of Vino Rosso. I think he may have been a little annoyed with him not steering straight down the lane because he gave him a crack or two after the wire. He's still green, but that fucker looks like he will run all day. Not sure he can win the Derby, but I'll be looking for him at Belmont.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Hope Spmack got Justify in a Derby Pool because I'm looking 1-1 on the 1st Saturday in May......Rube here's an ROI Account Balance: $470.34 not one bet over $4 put $50 in the account on March 14th SS pay day
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.
Author:  Rod [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.



Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse. The question for him is, is it asking too much too soon? His closest comp is probably Curlin. Curlin almost got it done in the Derby.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Johnny V. rode the hair off of Vino Rosso. I think he may have been a little annoyed with him not steering straight down the lane because he gave him a crack or two after the wire. He's still green, but that fucker looks like he will run all day. Not sure he can win the Derby, but I'll be looking for him at Belmont.

J R was fined 1500 for his ride in the Wood :lol:
Author:  Rod [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Johnny V. rode the hair off of Vino Rosso. I think he may have been a little annoyed with him not steering straight down the lane because he gave him a crack or two after the wire. He's still green, but that fucker looks like he will run all day. Not sure he can win the Derby, but I'll be looking for him at Belmont.

J R was fined 1500 for his ride in the Wood :lol:



In another jurisdiction he may have been taken down. But New York has the common sense rule that if the outcome wasn't changed by the incident the results stand.

I really sweated out the 7th race at Santa Anita on Saturday. I had a hundred on the winner and the exacta 20 times. That one could have gone the other way. Castellano on the 1 horse came way out into the 8, but it was hard to tell if it happened before or after the wire. I dodged a bullet there. Who knows about California? I didn't think McKinzie should have come down.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.



Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse. The question for him is, is it asking too much too soon? His closest comp is probably Curlin. Curlin almost got it done in the Derby.


His time wasn't otherworldly but the way he put Bolt D'Oro away was.

I see the Curlin comp. Also reminds me a bit of Big Brown.
Author:  Rod [ Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.



Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse. The question for him is, is it asking too much too soon? His closest comp is probably Curlin. Curlin almost got it done in the Derby.


His time wasn't otherworldly but the way he put Bolt D'Oro away was.

I see the Curlin comp. Also reminds me a bit of Big Brown.



The track was pretty slow at SA on Saturday. Brisnet gave Justify a giant fig.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.



Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse.


That 1 1/8 mi. time of 1:49.72 was slow at San Anita. I wouldn't consider him the fastest horse among all the contenders.

It has to be Mendlesohn, with Audible and Magnum Moon very close.

I'm pulling for My Boy Jack to get in the Derby.
Author:  Rod [ Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.



Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse.


That 1 1/8 mi. time of 1:49.72 was slow at San Anita. I wouldn't consider him the fastest horse among all the contenders.

It has to be Mendlesohn, with Audible and Magnum Moon very close.

I'm pulling for My Boy Jack to get in the Derby.


Nobody has figs like Justify. Of course, there's more to racing than raw speed. But it's hard to argue that Justify isn't the fastest three year old so far this year.
Author:  leashyourkids [ Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.



Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse.


That 1 1/8 mi. time of 1:49.72 was slow at San Anita. I wouldn't consider him the fastest horse among all the contenders.

It has to be Mendlesohn, with Audible and Magnum Moon very close.

I'm pulling for My Boy Jack to get in the Derby.


Nobody has figs like Justify. Of course, there's more to racing than raw speed. But it's hard to argue that Justify isn't the fastest three year old so far this year.


What are the characteristics of the best horse? What makes a horse a better stalker/sprinter etc?
Author:  Regular Reader [ Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
So are you throwbacks getting together to watch/bet on any of these?
Author:  Rod [ Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
Regular Reader wrote:
So are you throwbacks getting together to watch/bet on any of these?



I'm not sure where I'll be for the Derby but I will be betting!
Author:  Rod [ Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes
leashyourkids wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.



Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse.


That 1 1/8 mi. time of 1:49.72 was slow at San Anita. I wouldn't consider him the fastest horse among all the contenders.

It has to be Mendlesohn, with Audible and Magnum Moon very close.

I'm pulling for My Boy Jack to get in the Derby.


Nobody has figs like Justify. Of course, there's more to racing than raw speed. But it's hard to argue that Justify isn't the fastest three year old so far this year.


What are the characteristics of the best horse? What makes a horse a better stalker/sprinter etc?


Most races are sprints. The modern horse is bred for speed rather than stamina. The traditional racing families like the Phippses, the Whitneys, etc. bred their own horses for sport rather than for sale and they built classic pedigrees over time. Today the vast majority of horses are sprinters.

When you add drugs to the mix you have many horses that can't relax. They just want to go as fast as they can. That's not a good race horse. The jock needs to be able to use the horse's speed when he asks for it. But it doesn't do much good to wrestle a wound up horse. He just wears himself out fighting the boy.

There are several things that make the Kentucky Derby so special:

1) Everyone who has a capable horse is pointing for it.
2) None of the horses has ever gone a mile and a quarter before (usually).
3) It's relatively early in the three year old season and horses are still developing.
4) It's a larger field than any of them have ever- and probably will ever- race in.

I'm generally not big on pedigree once horses have started racing. Once you have past performance you don't really need pedigree. But with a race like the Derby when horses are being asked to go the classic distance for the first time (for some it may be the only time), it can be a useful tool.

The most successful female families in the Derby in recent years are Family No. 23(b) and Family No. 1. Members of these families have won an inordinate number of Derbies. Also horses with a male line descending from Raise A Native win far more than should be expected. And I don't believe a horse descending from Storm Cat in his male line has ever won a Derby, though a few have come close. I think they are 0 for 51. Some guys argue that it's a small sample, but I don't really want to be betting 0 for 51 at a short price like Justify will be. Finally, Buckpasser showing up on the female side suggests an ability to win the Derby as such horses win far more than their statistical expectation.

Then there's the ability to dominant space which is particularly important in a crowded field. If you watch horses in a natural herd out in a field, it's easy to see who the Alpha is. When they run a race, they act just like they would in nature as flight animals. Some defer to others. I would advise watching ears and tails. You can see when a horse is comfortable or uncomfortable.

As I said, I have no doubt that Justify is the fastest horse. He is also very large and appears to be a herd dominating type of horse. But he's never been in a situation where he's been put under real pressure. We'll have to wait until May 5 to find out how he responds to it.
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