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| 4th @ Belmont https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=112357 |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sun May 13, 2018 11:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | 4th @ Belmont |
Panic Attack Graduates |
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| Author: | Furious Styles [ Sun May 13, 2018 12:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Will you teach me how to play the ponies, Walt? |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sun May 13, 2018 1:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Furious Styles wrote: Will you teach me how to play the ponies, Walt? Will do....do you have TVG Channel? If you do start watching some races! |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Free Drop Billy just had a bullet last-prep work with splits of :11.60, :23, :34.40, and :46.80 and 59:20 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.80. Could be the hot horse in the race. Other than his clunker performance in the Derby, which I would throw out for the off track (the first time he had run in the mud) Free Drop Billy's results have been solid with money finishes in most of his graded stakes races, with the highlight being his win in the G1 Breeders Futurity, when Bravazo came in second. I have liked this horse in the past leading into the Gotham and could see him finishing strong in this race. He's had extra time off, not having run in the Preakness, and comes into this one fresh. http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/06/ ... y-gallops/ |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Never fails, Rube likes a horse that has NO CHANCE. 
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
spmack wrote: Never fails, Rube likes a horse that has NO CHANCE. Bravazo had no chance in the Preakness, too, but somehow managed to come in second only by head. Is the right strategy to bet against Justify at short odds or go with him? In this race, I'd like to bet against him on the win side. Fresh Free Drop Billy looks primed to outperform, which is what you're looking for as a handicapper. Sentimentally, I like Romans and in fact had Keen Ice in my tri and super-fecta wagers to win in the 2015 Belmont with American Pharoah and Frosted. Wouldn't mind seeing a repeat with Free Drop Billy surprising. |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Dignified Rube wrote: Blended Citizen wins the Peter Pan! That's my horse in the Belmont.
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
W_Z wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: Blended Citizen wins the Peter Pan! That's my horse in the Belmont. If you read my first message, I said Free Drop Billy could be the hot horse. I'm allowed to change my mind. Blended Citizen is a good horse nonetheless. Good grief that I would like any horses that are not Justify in this race. What's the fun of it having tunnel vision? |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
I actually like Blended Citizen too. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
I'll probably go this way: Superfectas- 4,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
To mention one more thing about Free Drop Billy, the interview in the link provided with Romans is insightful. He mentions that the horse did that blazing workout on his own, without being urged to go fast. Any sub 1 minute time for 5f is quick, and so was his 4f fraction under :47. If he is in that form without being pushed, I like his upside. Just some qualitative observations. I think it's bad when trainers run their horses too hard in the lead-up to races, but when they run fast on their own, that's a workout that could spell win. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Dignified Rube wrote: To mention one more thing about Free Drop Billy, the interview in the link provided with Romans is insightful. He mentions that the horse did that blazing workout on his own, without being urged to go fast. Any sub 1 minute time for 5f is quick, and so was his 4f fraction under :47. If he is in that form without being pushed, I like his upside. Just some qualitative observations. I think it's bad when trainers run their horses too hard in the lead-up to races, but when they run fast on their own, that's a workout that could spell win. If I broke both your legs then saddled you up and sent you to Romans to train, he'd have Tammy Fox work you and then tell everyone how great you looked out there. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I'll probably go this way: Superfectas- 4,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 My Super will be 1 10 1 10 8 1 3 7 8 10 1 3 4 7 8 10 Cost is $36 for a $1 Super, or $72 for a $2 Super. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: To mention one more thing about Free Drop Billy, the interview in the link provided with Romans is insightful. He mentions that the horse did that blazing workout on his own, without being urged to go fast. Any sub 1 minute time for 5f is quick, and so was his 4f fraction under :47. If he is in that form without being pushed, I like his upside. Just some qualitative observations. I think it's bad when trainers run their horses too hard in the lead-up to races, but when they run fast on their own, that's a workout that could spell win. If I broke both your legs then saddled you up and sent you to Romans to train, he'd have Tammy Fox work you and then tell everyone how great you looked out there. When does a trainer not talk up his horse? It's the Belmont Stakes, JORR. His tone was objective in his comments. He said the horse flopped in the Derby, but has seen him bounce back. I think Romans is playing his cards more closely to the vest this time. That said, I like Romans as a trainer. He talks a good game and looks the part. He got Keen Ice to come in third in 2015, so he's no stranger to competing in this race. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Good luck to you boys with the Belmont. Me, I'll be loading up on Bee Jersey in the Met Mile. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Good luck to you boys with the Belmont. Me, I'll be loading up on Bee Jersey in the Met Mile. I just texted someone with the same bet. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Like Mind Your Biscuits.....horses for courses …..FYI Jersey Bee career earnings the lowest of the bunch 
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Like Mind Your Biscuits.....horses for courses …..FYI Jersey Bee career earnings the lowest of the bunch He has a distinct pace advantage in there though. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: Like Mind Your Biscuits.....horses for courses …..FYI Jersey Bee career earnings the lowest of the bunch He has a distinct pace advantage in there though. not denying that |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Andy Beyer likes Bee Jersey as well. |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
i've read a few posts since looking up the met and i see some love for bee jersey as well. that could fuck his odds up though. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
W_Z wrote: i've read a few posts since looking up the met and i see some love for bee jersey as well. that could fuck his odds up though. He wasn't gonna be 5/1 anyway. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
spmack wrote: W_Z wrote: i've read a few posts since looking up the met and i see some love for bee jersey as well. that could fuck his odds up though. He wasn't gonna be 5/1 anyway. What do you think he'll be? That's not a cupcake field. Bolt D'Oro is a serious horse and I don't think McCraken has ever lost at a mile. Not to mention MYB and LL if he goes. And as Walt pointed out, he's the least accomplished horse in the field. I think 5/1 is about right. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Looks like a regression in speed figures for Justify, while the other horses have maintained. That makes the race a lot closer. He'll probably be overbet, but Justify is no better than a 2-1 favorite in this spot. Bravazo, Hofburg and Blended Citizen are the main threats. I would still take Free Drop Billy on a flier. |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
any big plays today? |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
Belmont 8th: Whitmore Belmont 10th: Canessar Santa Anita 6th: Law Abidin Citizen |
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| Author: | spmack [ Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
JORR: I'm thinking Bee Jersey gets bet down to a high 7/2, a smidge under 4/1 ($9.60 or 9.80 to win) W_Z: I like (3) Imperial Game in Race 8 True North Stakes. Not gonna bore or confuse you with all the Dignified Rube stats- simply put - the horse will go to the front of the race and will not get caught. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
spmack wrote: JORR: I'm thinking Bee Jersey gets bet down to a high 7/2, a smidge under 4/1 ($9.60 or 9.80 to win) I think I'd take that. I'd have to see what everyone else is at. If Bolt D'Oro is double digits I'd definitely consider going that way. spmack wrote: W_Z: I like (3) Imperial Game in Race 8 True North Stakes. Not gonna bore or confuse you with all the Dignified Rube stats- simply put - the horse will go to the front of the race and will not get caught. That's a logical thought, but I think Recruiting Ready is going to be all over him. It will help him if Limousine Liberal goes in the other race. I'm looking for a bit of a pace meltdown in there to set up Whitmore at a nice price. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4th @ Belmont |
well Zach I looked over the True North and came up with Joking.....seeing that closers have won at Belmont...so he hasn't run in a year what an excuse I have closes fastest
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