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 Post subject: Racing 6/28 thru Weekend
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:52 am 
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Beautiful day for racing at Arlington.

Sloppy track at Belmont, fast at Churchill and Gulfstream. Some higher stakes races later at Churchill.

Going to even take a look at Prairie Meadows today.

I noticed Acacia Courtney is not doing the commentary anymore at Gulfstream. Too bad. What a hottie! A former Ms. Connecticut, ballerina and is smart, too.

But I think that Gabby Gaudet is the better handicapper. She gets them right a lot.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:21 am 
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Let us know how you redboard.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:57 am 
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W_Z wrote:
Let us know how you redboard.


I don't know what you're talking about, but it smacks of cynicism. If you said you won a certain race, why would that bother me?

I gave my picks in the Chicago Handicap. According to you, no one should be happy to win.

You're free to dazzle us all with your picks and insights, W_Z.

Some people are a little touchy around here. Once upon a time the horse racing threads were less caustic and more collegial.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:10 pm 
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:lol: easy, striker.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:28 pm 
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W_Z wrote:
:lol: easy, striker.


Just so you know, you're dealing with a Scorpio.

I'd rather be talking about Acacia Courtney. :)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:44 pm 
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I’m a Scorpio too!

So are you all over Harkans Hall in R6 at Prairie?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:01 pm 
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I think Bryzzo has a shot in the 7th at CD.

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I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:34 pm 
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W_Z wrote:
I’m a Scorpio too!

So are you all over Harkans Hall in R6 at Prairie?


I'm actually on the cusp of Libra and Scorpio.

You like Harkans Hall because of the last work for 4f in 0:48? Might be worth a gamble at 8-1, but the odds will probably shorten up.

I like Free Kitty in the 8th coming up here at Belmont.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:46 pm 
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Going with Come on Dover in the 7th at CD.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:14 pm 
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Aced My Finals being way overbet at PM in the 4th at 1/9 odds after faltering in his last race. I got him with only a 30% winning prob.

Let's hope Holiday Joke and Skippy's Strike pushes Aced My Finals hard on the pace.

Looking at True Power for the upset with a 27% winning estimate. 99-1 versus 5/1 on the M/L. That's crazy.

*True Power now down to 50-1 with 7 mins. before PT.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:34 pm 
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Nope, didn't work out this time. Looked like he was vulnerable.

I had True Power to place, too, which he did. Would have been better at 99-1, but those odds dropped drastically by PT.

Went off at 11-1, but paid a paltry $4.40 to place.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:13 pm 
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17-1 on Harkins Hall. Did W_Z see something in his crystal ball?

For $2 why not? Let it ride.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:55 pm 
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Drat. Thought the class edge would help.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:00 pm 
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W_Z wrote:
Drat. Thought the class edge would help.


He hung in there.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:45 am 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
W_Z wrote:
I’m a Scorpio too!

So are you all over Harkans Hall in R6 at Prairie?


I'm actually on the cusp of Libra and Scorpio.

You like Harkans Hall because of the last work for 4f in 0:48? Might be worth a gamble at 8-1, but the odds will probably shorten up.

I like Free Kitty in the 8th coming up here at Belmont.

Image

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:19 am 
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No, it's more like this.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:33 pm 
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been waiting forever for graydar's resolve to break his maiden; he's been short prices last few races and hasn't really been impressive. R5 at Gulfstream today, again short price at 5-2. not really sure what people see in him...i've been waiting for him to drop so it's worth betting on.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:55 pm 
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Had Triple Dog Dare, Teletap and Dreams Point in the 7th at CD for the Exa. About time.

Brad Cox is a good trainer. I see him win all the time.

The odds today have been terrible. Favorites have done ok, but not getting any odds. :(


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:03 pm 
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W_Z wrote:
been waiting forever for graydar's resolve to break his maiden; he's been short prices last few races and hasn't really been impressive. R5 at Gulfstream today, again short price at 5-2. not really sure what people see in him...i've been waiting for him to drop so it's worth betting on.


He's worth it at 5-2. 6-5 is close to fair value.

I'd rather try to beat him with Yesus Star at 10-1 on the class drop. He's sired by Scat Daddy.

Win, place.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:50 pm 
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Taking Portal and Bantu in the 9th at CD. Both to win and Exacta box.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:20 pm 
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Just had my best result of the day. Had May Be a Diamond and Stapleton in the 5th at Belmont, both win and place.

Came in #6 and #2. Gonna take the money and call it a day.

The reason I don't like to post my picks before the race is out of superstition.

Have a good afternoon y'all.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:51 pm 
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Danny B in the 4th at AP. Get your bets in!

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I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:22 pm 
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[quote="Joe Orr Road Rod"]Danny B in the 4th at AP. Get your bets in![/quoteS
Steak Dinner boom!....very nice call :D didn't bet the race ...but good for you!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:48 pm 
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There really needs to be some policing of the parimutuel outfits to curtail the adjustment of odds following the start of races. I know the tracks argue the odds are still settling from electronic wagering after the start, but those adjustments are happening as late as the final stretches now. In other words, the public is being fleeced big-time and the tracks are getting away with it. There needs to be a fixed time when the wagering is closed before the start of the races. I hardly saw any fair value odds on the favorites the last couple of days. They're all being priced as underlays and then get worse odds following the post. Even that maiden horse that W_Z was talking about, Graydar, at Gulfstream turned out to be an underlay. He was fair value at 6-5 versus M/L of 5/2, but finished shorter than 1-1.

It's very frustrating, because you want to participate, but like in the movie War Games, the best move often is not to play, or at least not to play the favorites. The odds are just not there.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:22 pm 
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I'm glad that the officials at Parx cancelled races the last two days, because of the heat wave in the East. Could have killed the horses.

Unlike Arlington this past weekend, who couldn't make that easy and humane call.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:41 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
There really needs to be some policing of the parimutuel outfits to curtail the adjustment of odds following the start of races. I know the tracks argue the odds are still settling from electronic wagering after the start, but those adjustments are happening as late as the final stretches now. In other words, the public is being fleeced big-time and the tracks are getting away with it. There needs to be a fixed time when the wagering is closed before the start of the races. I hardly saw any fair value odds on the favorites the last couple of days. They're all being priced as underlays and then get worse odds following the post. Even that maiden horse that W_Z was talking about, Graydar, at Gulfstream turned out to be an underlay. He was fair value at 6-5 versus M/L of 5/2, but finished shorter than 1-1.

It's very frustrating, because you want to participate, but like in the movie War Games, the best move often is not to play, or at least not to play the favorites. The odds are just not there.


The ROI strategy in the program that I offer is what can save you from making bad bets. It's had a lot of success today at Belmont, GP and even Monmouth. You have to stay disciplined and not bet a horse as an underlay, because it's the live odds favorite. Rather, that's the horse you are trying to beat.

JORR impressed this wisdom on my brain some time ago, and he couldn't have been more right. If you're not getting the odds, you just pass on the race, like folding a bad poker hand, and wait for the right setup in the next one.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:29 am 
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What's your best ROI is your horse coming in...….let's see how your system works out over a month Rube

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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