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Arlington
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=113634		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Ron Wolfley [ Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:57 am ]
Post subject:  Arlington
Going later today with my old ASU buddies. Anybody got tips or advice on any of the 8 races?
Author:  JORR [ Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
Oltre' Oro in the first should have a good pace to shoot at and is well worth a bet at anywhere close to the morning line.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
Double Race 1 & 2 Romeo Lima & Nook 3/5 won't pay shit but you'll cash
Early Pick 5 a half buck bet
1. Romeo Lima
2 Nook
3 Devils Rose
4 Straight Up Smarty
5 Dadd's Boo

that should give you some $$$$$$$ for the 7th
#7 SpringintheHeat Emigh & Becker


Good Luck and Good racing
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
Here's your proof how Arlington cheats by manipulating the odds once the race has already started. It's a screen shot from the 8th race today of the back stretch. As you can see below, those are the post-time odds. #2 Unbridled Giant went off at 7/2. However, he led early on and saw his odds plummet to 8/5, a move of 2 points!

This is called fleecing the public, and yet Arlington gets away with it, because there is zero oversight or sham oversight in the Illinois Racing Board, no regulations on prices and the track has no accountability. It's a complete rip off, because the post-time prices are unreliable. Handicapping the races by value is pointless.

Bleep Arlington.

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=0
Author:  JORR [ Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
It happens all the time at all tracks and I agree it's annoying. I don't think it's nefarious though. It's just how the late money hits the pools. Everyone wants to make the last bet. Some of the black box whales have an edge there. I do agree it's a problem when bettors feel as if they lost even when they won.
Author:  One Post [ Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
Am I wrong on this but the tracks make the same amount of money whether the favorite or the long shot wins? Isn’t that the theory behind parimutuel?


So how does the track benefit from post-post (is this a term?) adjusting the odds?
Author:  a retard [ Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
In this particular case being late with the $$ didn't work. #5 won the race. #2 may still be out there somewhere :lol:

Is it possible odds moving is more obvious at Arlington than other tracks because the handle is so low, thus magnifying the effect of larger wagers? I recall one race last Friday where about 15 minutes before the race the favorite was 1/9 which was nothing like the morning line. Then the track odds maker came on and said it was because a $5,000 bet had come in on that horse. He said that he thought that as wagers came on the others the odds would even out more. Sure enough they did.
Author:  W_Z [ Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
a retard wrote:
In this particular case being late with the $$ didn't work. #5 won the race. #2 may still be out there somewhere :lol:



i was gonna say that too--i looked at the results and laughed a little. but it does suck if you think you're betting on a 7-2 and it turns out to be a 8-5 or some low shit like that.
Author:  a retard [ Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
$4,000 claiming race =

Image
Author:  JORR [ Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Arlington
One Post wrote:
Am I wrong on this but the tracks make the same amount of money whether the favorite or the long shot wins? Isn’t that the theory behind parimutuel?


So how does the track benefit from post-post (is this a term?) adjusting the odds?



Correct, the track is only taking a fee (the takeout) for handling the wagers. That fee is sliced up by many entities, i.e. the horsemen, the track, the state, simulcast partners. However, the tracks do have an interest in accommodating their best clients, which in today's game means the large consortiums betting via computers and/or automated systems. I'm not suggesting that these players can get their bets in after the regular guy, but it wouldn't surprise me if they had a slight advantage as the horses are leaving the gate. They may also cancel bets which obviously would affect the pools.

It makes the game that much tougher for an independent player like me. It's a game of very skinny margins and I have to establish a "strike price", if you will, before I bet a horse. If that minimum acceptable amount is 7/2 for example, and I bet right before the off at 4/1 and halfway down the stretch the odds shift to 8/5, over the long haul that's disastrous for me regardless of whether or not I cash the $5.20 bet today.
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