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Pennsylvania Derby
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=114232		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:18 am ]
Post subject:  Pennsylvania Derby
Featuring the return of McKinzie from the Baffert barn.

Can he beat Bravazo, who's had a 3rd and 2nd in the Travers and Haskell?

Looks to be a good race with a big field.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pennsylvania Derby
The computer model has it a close race between Hofburg, McKenzie and Bravazo, with a slight edge to Hofburg for speed. Bravazo is favored in terms of winning percentage, adjusted for stakes.

Total Winning Est.
HOFBURG 24.88%
MCKINZIE 20.45%
BRAVAZO 18.40%
MR FREEZE 14.51%
CORE BELIEFS 7.85%
INSTILLED REGARD 5.07%
AXELROD 3.45%
TRIGGER WARNING 1.92%
KING ZACHARY 1.73%
FIRST MONDAYS 1.73%

I like Bravazo in this race, based on recent history and Lukas' comments. This week Lukas said his horse has gotten heavier, stronger and more focused, and he's expecting a big one from him. I don't think this is a good spot for McKinzie as a West Coast shipper off the long layoff. Hofburg's only graded stakes win recently was the $100K Curlin at Saratoga in late July, but that's hardly the G1 Whitney or Haskell Bravazo ran in against good competition. At 6-1 the price is right.

Big class test for Mr. Freeze, but he did have a good win in the W.V. Derby by eight lengths. Juicy odds on the M/L at 12-1.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pennsylvania Derby
Moral of the story was Bravazo was in need of a break after not having had any pause for five months. Lukas pushed him too hard and it showed yesterday.

And never sell Baffert short with a former top 3 year old off the long lay-off, even if he's shipping the horse cross country. None of that matters with the GOAT.
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