Just throwing this out there…Gulfstream Race 4-Cowboy Culture 8-1 ml…new trainer Norm Casse is keen on this horse, and I think it’s sitting on a big performance. Salty group including 1.2 mil earner Slim Shadey. Pace should set up nicely for him to close, and price should hold as well.

And happy and healthy new year to everyone!

You can bet on last year's races here? Wow! where do I sign up? I will google the winners from 1/1/18 and bet on them to win!

*nineteen

just joking around with you

good luck

You too. Let’s hope for the best.

The eighth at Gulf is a shitty January maiden. I usually don't like to bet on big 0-fers, but this field is pretty much loaded with them. If they stay on the turf and with the cut back to a buck sixteenth, I think this may be the spot for Beau Belle to finally break her maiden. She seems a little short on the ML, but I suspect she may be at least a bit higher at post time.

In some sad news, I bet a horse yesterday at Aqueduct that was 14/1 as they loaded into the gate. The horse won and I got back $16.20. All the late money hitting the pools at the last minute makes this game even tougher than it already is. We've got real problems in the sport when you can cash a 7/1 ticket and still feel like you lost.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

NICE!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Thank you...great ride by Leparoux...paid $17.20...and to your point JORR, these syndicates or whatever that slam the windows micro seconds before it closes are really screwing things up. Not sure what can be done about it though.

That's the excuse that the late money is hitting the pools at the last minute, causing the odds to drop. But I think it's the tracks manipulating the pool portion of their takeout to drive down the odds on horses who are leading. This happens as late as when the horses reach the half-mile pole or even later. That late money should have already have registered by 48 seconds into the race.

Yes, horse players should demand sweeping changes, like the pools being closed 1 minute before post-time. But how do you put pressure on the tracks who don't wont to be held accountable for their dirty deeds? Horse racing is becoming less and less any kind of a fair game. The only way to make money is to pick and choose your shots wisely. You shouldn't be betting every race, particularly when the favorite is strong as an overlay. If you're betting favorites at 2-1 odds or less, you're the sucker. Even Audible at 1-9 odds in his last time out can lose or Stormy Liberal at 1-1 odds yesterday in the Hernandez in the 8th at Santa Anita.

Now why would the tracks do that? They're simply an agent handling the action. One issue is that these computer groups are hitting the pools late, as OTE pointed out above. (Not to mention that they force the takeout to remain high so they can get their rebates. But that's a different issue entirely.)

There are bettors that receive an unfair systematic advantage due to the volume of play. It's not dissimilar to the stock market:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eqqCwhPlyU

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

My theory is that the tracks want to make the odds less than fair value on favorites and front-runners after post-time, because over time the bettor loses on those bets for their being ROI negative. If the bettor isn't keeping his money, then his money is being lost to the track and to other gamblers. The tracks prefer their relationship with bettors to be a net negative, rather than positive, and whatever they can get away with to make it more negative they'll do.

This is what people don't understand. They take a favorite at 3-2 with negative expected ROI and win one time, thinking it's great while patting themselves on the back. But if they make that same bet over and over again, they ultimately will lose, because the math and odds are against them.

I don't think the tracks have any interest in who wins. And if you are familiar with track management, most of them don't even seem to understand their business or their customers.

I would say that the gamblers can be divided in to four basic groups:

1) People who just come out once or twice a year for events and such and expect to lose whatever they bring.
2) People who have a basic knowledge and can read The Form but aren't really serious handicappers.
3) People who know what they're doing and are using the latest technology and receive basic rebates.
4) Conglomerates that use computer algorithms, have giant handle, and receive the biggest rebates.

Groups one and two are losing the most. Maybe group 1 loses about 80% and group 2 about 50% of their handle. Group 3 plays to about break-even, some years up a little, some years down a little. Group 4 only needs to play break-even to make a lot via their rebates, but the edge they have allows them to do a little better than that.

Remember about 20% blended is coming off the top. I don't see how a serious player could play a place like Parx at all.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I don't miss this dialogue one fuckin'bit

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

The 9th at Gulfstream for the $100K Tropical Turf at 1 mi. could be interesting with #5 Mr. Freeze, a Romans horse and winner of the West Virginia Derby, where he put up a 107 figure in Aug.

He was up against tough competition in the G1 Penn. Derby with McKinzie last out in Sept., but then took a needed break after being run hard 4x June thru Sept.

Quantitatively, Mr. Freeze is getting a gift at 15-1 on the M/L in terms of both class and speed. This G3 seems more stakes appropriate for him, and he's still lightly run with only 5 career starts. I think Romans will have him ready, otherwise, he would not be in this turf race. Albarado is aboard again, who rode the horse to victory in the W.V. Derby.

In the second race I think Paddy's Class will be a lot better. The horse didn't handle the course last time. Not sure he can win here but I'll be using him with 3 and 10.

In other news Acacia Courtney looking extra hot fresh off her Miss Connecticut victory.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I've got the deutscher Pferd, #3Windjammer in the 2nd. 2-1 is fair value.

Acacia Courtney is a bit stuck on herself, but she can talk a good game.

Rube, Mr Freeze down to 8/1 with the scratch of Conquest Big E. Still a good value but I don't think Heart to Heart will be beat. 2nd leg of Xpressbet's "Beat the host" tourney, so if it wins it would be a significant difference maker. I punched in the favorite before I saw your post, hope I don't regret that.

Mr. Freeze didn't work out, but I did get consolation in the 7th at Aqueduct with #11 Stoney Bennet at 9-1.

Starting to question my faith in Dale Romans. Hasn't done too much since 2015 with Keen Ice.

I've got La Signare (FR) coming up here in the 11th for the Marshua's River Stk. at GP.

I don't want to redboard you guys, but I absolutely crushed the race with Stoney Bennett. I know he had never gone long before but he had a HUGE pace advantage:

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

JORR, how much do you rely on that type of data?

Just wrote about it. Amazing race that he lost the lead down the stretch to Mr. Dougie Fresh only to come back in the last few seconds to win.

Very nice price, indeed.

For about the last six months OptixEQ is the only thing I use. I haven't looked at a Form in a long time. It was a slow process though. A lot of new stuff to learn. I'd been using the Racing Form since I was 16 years old. When I first started looking at Optix it was like trying to read Sanskrit.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Really? Holy shit, I'd have bet that you were a DRF guy, and nothing else.

I can't even remember how I got turned on to this product. I think I first bought it last year for the Santa Anita opener. It's a little pricey but the Form has gotten expensive itself and now you have to buy two if you want to bet California. I'm an Arlington/Twin Spires guy and they don't even sell the Form at the track anymore, though the BRISnet thing they have is basically the same format.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Can you say that Opti whatever has increased your ROI?

Without question. But my conversion has coincided with me becoming a serious thoroughbred player whereas until recently I would have considered myself mainly a harness guy.

Anyway, I now regularly bet horses I would have considered impossible if I were just looking at a Racing Form. I suppose part of that is because I am giving less weight to class and relying more on pace scenario and speed figs. For example, prior to using Optix I could never have bet Discreet Lover in the Jockey Club. But I bet him and got the pace scenario I was hoping for that was predicted by the Optix projector and cashed a giant bet at a $93 mutuel. I never could have bet a horse like that in the past. At least not with any real confidence or significant dough.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don