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The Kentucky Derby
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Author:  Keyser Soze [ Tue May 01, 2007 1:50 pm ]
Post subject:  The Kentucky Derby
I thought I'd start a thread just in case there were a few horse racing fans around here.

It looks like Street Sense will be the early favorite with Circular Quay and Curlin as possibilities. Nobiz Like Shobiz may get some action too (damn 20 horse fields!)

Scat Daddy and Dominican jumped out at me but that can change when the post positions are drawn.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Thu May 03, 2007 7:14 am ]
Post subject: 
Curlin was the morning line favorite which means nothing. This horse looks like the wonder horse of the year with only 3 lifetime starts. You can find free past performances here: http://equibase.com/

Interesting fact for this year. This is the first year since 1980 that neither D. Wayne Lukas, Bob Baffert or Nick Zito have a horse in the Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher have 5.

I'll give my breakdown later today or tomorrow.
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Thu May 03, 2007 11:06 am ]
Post subject: 
I'm a little surprised Curlin is the early favorite. The 2nd post postion is not very desirable (he had the 16th draw). My guess is Street Sense goes off as the fav but who knows. I'm looking forward to your breakdown Vince.

I LOVE Scat Daddy sitting at 14.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Thu May 03, 2007 11:46 am ]
Post subject: 
I haven't had a derby winner since Funny Cide so don't take mine to the bank ;-)
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 04, 2007 11:38 am ]
Post subject: 
Breaking down the field by post

1. Sedgefield - Horse has never ran on dirt (racing on Turf or the Polytrack). His best race was a tiring second to Hard Spun on the Poly and regressed in his next start. Doesn't figure.

2. Curlin - This year's super horse. He's 3 for 3 with the wins totalling 28 lengths. He absolutely crushed the field in the Arkansas Derby (a la Smarty Jones). The big questions are 1) how ready is he for a field like this - the best horses he beat are longshots here. 2) He's still learning to race -is he ready for being bumped and looked in the eye?

3. Zanjero - Ran an up close third in the recent Blue Grass stakes where he changed tactics and went to the front. He's typically a deep closer but still hasn't run (IMHO) a big race in his life. I could see him hit the board, but he isn't one looking to have the roses around his neck.

4. Storm in May - Not much to say here. Drive thru.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy - I hear this is NSJ's pick. This horse has not shown much this year and appears to be a bit behind these horses.

6. Cowtown Cat - Winner of the local Illinois Derby and has improved his numbers each of the last three started. Great post for a horse who will stalk the leaders early. He's been working out forwardly in the mornings and wouldn't be a total surprise if he got the roses.

7. Street Sense - Last year's Juvenile winner had a poor showing in a strange Bluegrass Stakes but he was game as hell in the previous Tampa Bay Derby where he went nose for nose with Any Given Saturday after being off 5 months. Should bounce back in the right direction and loves the track.

8. Hard Spun - Bounced back from a poor showing in the Southwest with a powerful win in the Lanes End 6 weeks ago. Opened some eyes this week with a huge workout. He's 5 of 6 as a winner. I'm thinking he will end up on the front end.

9. Liquidity - Horse will be on the front end. Looks to have some ability but might be in too tough here as it has ran out of the money in its last two with better competition.

10. Teuflesberg - This horse has won a few races by controlling the pace. He will have to put the pedal down to get in front of the two horses inside of him which equals death in the Derby.

11. Bwana Bull - This horse was good at smaller California Tracks but got pounded in the Santa Anita Derby so he looks like an outsider.

12. Nobiz Like Shobiz - Rumor is the Sheiks offered 17M for this horse after he broke his maiden last year. He's hit the board in all six races in his life. He shows a nice move and has a good post. He's been improving just wish he had that one big race before the race. Barclay Tagg is the same trainer as Funny Cide.

13. Sam P. - This horse takes blinkers off in the hope of a bounce forward. His race in the Lewis was a strong race, losing to Great Hunter. He bounced backwards in the SA Derby but has a shot to hit the board.

14. Scat Daddy - This might be Pletcher's best horse. Has won two straight in Florida in impressive fashion - he'll be a mid pack horse and if he can stay out of traffic, he should be ok.

15. Tiago - Half brother to Giacomo who won the SA Derby at 30-1. His number in the SA Derby is one of the top numbers in the field. Could bounce or could improve.

16. Circular Quay - The LA Derby win was maybe the best performance in a prep this year. He was 4 wide most of the race and won going away. This horse has seen trouble in races so getting bumped around won't kill his chances. A slow pace might though since he's a deep closer.

17. Stormello - Gets Kent Desormeaux in the irons. He's a bounce candidate. He will probably want to get to the front which hurts his chances

18. Any Given Saturday - Had a wide trip in the Wood Memorial and paid for it in the lane, losing several lengths. If he runs back to his Tampa race, he'll be right there. He;s a 1.1M dollar baby.

19. Dominican - Won the wierd Blue Grass Stakes but before then ran a big race in the Rushaway. Big wins have come on Poly. I would expect him to have trouble in the race.

20. Great Hunter - Found terrible racing luck in the Blue Grass, finding himself on the front end and then blocked ruining all chance. He'll be running late but I fear that his post will kill his chances to take the roses.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 04, 2007 11:53 am ]
Post subject: 
Making a new post for my picks.

I love STREET SENSE. This horse is coming off back to back 100 speed ratings and is ready to bounce back to a winning level. The post is great and should be able to sit in the second tier to wait for his time to attack.

I will pair him with NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ, ANY GIVEN SATURDAY, GREAT HUNTER and SAM P. and ZANJERO COWTOWN CAT in the exacta.

STREET SENSE Win Place

7/3,12, 18, 20, 13, 6 EXACTA and the reverse.

I'll also toss a few bucks to win and place on COWTOWN CAT and SAM P.
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Fri May 04, 2007 2:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
That's great stuff HV, Thanks.

I'm sticking with Scat Daddy. I'll probably hook him up with Hard Spun and Nobiz. I'll probably throw something on Tiago and Cowtown Cat or whoever else an 'expert' talks me into.

Good luck Vince!
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 04, 2007 3:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
Good luck Keyser - it's a wide open race and I can see some scenarios where Scat Daddy can win the race. He's a hard knocker and a good value. Since I am betting ahead, I will not like to get 3-1 on Street Sense if he does go off the favorite. I'm hoping for 4-1 or 9-2.
Author:  Chus [ Sat May 05, 2007 12:11 am ]
Post subject: 
I am playing to win and place:

#7 Street Sense
#8 Nobiz Like Showbiz
#12 Hard Spun


I am throwing these three horses in a trifecta box as well.
Author:  a retard [ Sat May 05, 2007 7:35 am ]
Post subject: 
7 + 8 Boxed Exacta
14 Win, Place
Author:  kerchungathunk [ Sat May 05, 2007 10:00 am ]
Post subject: 
Tiago is my pick to win...and hopefully recoup some of the beating I took at Maywood last night. :cry:
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sat May 05, 2007 10:41 am ]
Post subject: 
The track is going to be at best Good today. Going to be interesting to see how horses like the possible sticky surface.
Author:  Woodridge Ryan [ Sat May 05, 2007 10:57 am ]
Post subject: 
Alright, what do we know about these horses that do well on a stickier track? Hawkeye Vince, Coast, where you guys at?! HELP! I was going to take Any Given Saturday.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat May 05, 2007 12:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ryan, I'm not a horse guy. I do pay attention to a few horse guys. Vince looks like he knows the ponies. I'd pay attention to him. My best buddy used to own the QC Downs. He likes Street Sense and Any Given Saturday.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sat May 05, 2007 2:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think at his odds Any Given Saturday is worth the play. Last I saw he was near 18-1. I was almost shocked to see Curlin at 6-1.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat May 05, 2007 2:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
current track odds at churchilldowns.com..2:45 pm

Any Given Saturday now at 12/1
Curlin being bet heavy...down to 7/2
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat May 05, 2007 5:36 pm ]
Post subject: 
The boys nail the derby. You got your winner now Vince. Nice job on the exacta retard and nice job Chus playing him WPS. I also had him that way.
Author:  kerchungathunk [ Sat May 05, 2007 8:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
kerchungathunk wrote:
Tiago is my pick to win...and hopefully recoup some of the beating I took at Maywood last night. :cry:


Beating utter and complete. Ouch. :cry:
Author:  Soup Fan Anthony [ Sat May 05, 2007 9:15 pm ]
Post subject: 
I bet $12 total ($2 across on Hard Spun and $6 tri box 3-7-11) and won $16.80. Total profit: $4.80 (read: Starbucks for the wife).
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Sat May 05, 2007 10:45 pm ]
Post subject: 
a retard wrote:
7 + 8 Boxed Exacta
14 Win, Place


This was a nice hit. I had 20-20 on Street Sense and kicking myself for not giving Hard Spun enough credit. I thought the pace would be fierce and he'd wither in the stretch. Profit is profit.
Author:  a retard [ Mon May 07, 2007 4:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Thanks and congrats to the other winners; as for me this only shows that even a blind squirrel can ocassionaly stumble across a nut.
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