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| Contenders https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=116314 |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Contenders |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
How much for anyone else? |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: How much for anyone else? Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 starting Friday at noon ending Sunday at 6 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Super Steed is now on the radar. Doesn't hurt to have a sire who's a Kentucky Derby winner in Super Saver. Super Saver has the track record for two year olds at Churchill at 1 1/16 mi. in under 1:43, another fact that bodes well for Super Steed. But I don't think he is fit enough yet to win high graded stakes at 1 1/8 mi., let alone a buck and a quarter. He's still got work to do. I wonder what his time would have been in the Southwest without the wide trip? Low 1:43 or high 1:42? You have to like the heart of this horse. He runs his race and doesn't care about the competition. Gray Attempt is still a good horse, who got the shaft with interference in the Southwest. What does it take for the stewards to DQ a jockey for unsportsmanlike behavior? What happened to Gray Attempt was the definition of unsportsmanlike. So often you see the stewards not doing their jobs with interference, where they give a fouling horse a pass. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
No way anything that was in the Southwest is winning the Derby. That race was just fucking terrible. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: No way anything that was in the Southwest is winning the Derby. That race was just fucking terrible. Super Steed is a good story. It is great for the sport that he won the Southwest as such a big underdog. I'm not saying you should crown him yet, but objectively he deserves consideration with his pedigree. He would need to be at least a second faster a 1 1/16 mi., but you can make that argument that he was faster because of the wide trip he took. He won by brute force going wide. That shipper that placed second, was a good horse. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: No way anything that was in the Southwest is winning the Derby. That race was just fucking terrible. Super Steed is a good story. It is great for the sport that he won the Southwest as such a big underdog. I'm not saying you should crown him yet, but objectively he deserves consideration with his pedigree. He would need to be at least a second faster a 1 1/16 mi., but you can make that argument that he was faster because of the wide trip he took. He won by brute force going wide. That shipper that placed second, was a good horse. I'm going to say nothing in that race cashes a check in the Derby. Heck, I'm not even sure anything from that race should even be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Jones should point Super Steed for the Remington Derby. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: No way anything that was in the Southwest is winning the Derby. That race was just fucking terrible. Super Steed is a good story. It is great for the sport that he won the Southwest as such a big underdog. I'm not saying you should crown him yet, but objectively he deserves consideration with his pedigree. He would need to be at least a second faster a 1 1/16 mi., but you can make that argument that he was faster because of the wide trip he took. He won by brute force going wide. That shipper that placed second, was a good horse. I'm going to say nothing in that race cashes a check in the Derby. Heck, I'm not even sure anything from that race should even be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Jones should point Super Steed for the Remington Derby. You would be hard pressed to find any horse today to win the Derby. They're still growing and maturing and none have been tested at 1 1/4 mi. Super Steed is at least headed in the right direction and has more than able pedigree. We'll get to see him again soon in the Rebel. Then you can tell me I'm wrong. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
There was big movement in the futures odds on Bourbon War today. From the time the pool opened at noon to this evening, the odds dropped from 12 to 7. I got a little at 9. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Dignified Rube wrote: There was big movement in the futures odds on Bourbon War today. From the time the pool opened at noon to this evening, the odds dropped from 12 to 7. I got a little at 9. What do you mean, Rube? It's not fixed odds. It's a parimutuel pool. You're not going to be locked until it closes on Sunday. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: There was big movement in the futures odds on Bourbon War today. From the time the pool opened at noon to this evening, the odds dropped from 12 to 7. I got a little at 9. What do you mean, Rube? It's not fixed odds. It's a parimutuel pool. You're not going to be locked until it closes on Sunday. My misunderstanding. I thought you could lock in the price. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: There was big movement in the futures odds on Bourbon War today. From the time the pool opened at noon to this evening, the odds dropped from 12 to 7. I got a little at 9. What do you mean, Rube? It's not fixed odds. It's a parimutuel pool. You're not going to be locked until it closes on Sunday. My misunderstanding. I thought you could lock in the price. Well, I'm gonna say you get better than 9/1 when the pool closes. But I'm also gonna say you get better than 9/1 if he makes the gate in the Derby. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Year 3 and Rube still doesn't understand parimutuel 
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| Author: | Rod [ Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
I took 11/1 on Hidden Scroll for $50. It's probably a bad bet considering all the things that can happen between now and May 4, but he's easily the best three-year-old I've seen and if he runs the way I suspect he will in the Florida Derby he'll likely be no more than 5/1 in Kentucky. Of course, Baffert is going to show up with an army of juice trains. Did you see that ridiculous work by Improbable? He had the thing so high for the San Felipe that when he took him over to work at Los Al Van Dyke couldn't even get him pulled up on the backstretch. The fucking horse was more loaded than Vince Neil after a party at the Playboy Mansion. Hidden Scroll is the real deal and I'm hoping a square guy like Mott can still win the Kentucky Derby but I have my doubts. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
It's still too early for me but I loved how Bourbon War finished the Fountain of Youth. He seemed quite mature as he relaxed early, dealt with some traffic on the backstretch, didn't seem to get too ruffled and then made a huge move on everyone in the stretch (and galloped out the best, too). A lot can happen between now and then, but he's a strong contender for the Florida Derby if that's where he goes, and he's going to do well with added distance. But I'm not really into the future pools, that race is hard enough to 'cap. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
I like Bourbon War, but what about Mucho Gusto from the Baffert barn? He won the Robert Lewis Stakes at S.A. in early Feb. at 1 1/6 mi. on the wet track in 1:41:81, beating Gunmetal Gray by five lengths. If this horse isn't super classy, I don't know what is. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
It could be (it won't however) an all Baffert Super:Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster and your guy Mucho Gusto. I really like his bloodlines (Mucho Macho Man/Itsagiantcauseway). Do you think he's headed to the Rebel? It seems like he might be able to adjust his style for the race at hand; that bodes well for him. I like him too, Rube. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: It could be (it won't however) an all Baffert Super:Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster and your guy Mucho Gusto. I really like his bloodlines (Mucho Macho Man/Itsagiantcauseway). Do you think he's headed to the Rebel? It seems like he might be able to adjust his style for the race at hand; that bodes well for him. I like him too, Rube. Mucho Gusto headed next to the Sunland Derby in two weeks. Listed as probable. https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mucho_Gusto_1# |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Here's the Bovada odds on the Derby. The futures pool opens again on the 5th. Game Winner +600 Improbable +750 Maximum Security +1200 Code Of Honor +1600 Omaha Beach +1600 Bourbon War +2000 Cutting Humor +2000 Hidden Scroll +2000 Long Range Toddy +2000 Roadster +2000 Anothertwistafate +2500 By My Standards +2500 Complexity +2500 Global Campaign +2500 Haikal +2500 Instagrand +2500 Mucho +2500 Nolo Contesto +2500 Tacitus +2500 Vekoma +2500 War Of Will +2500 Win Win Win +2500 Cairo Cat +3300 Call Paul +3300 Country House +3300 Frosted Ice +3300 Galilean +3300 Gunmetal Gray +3300 King For A Day +3300 Maximus Mischief +3300 Mucho Gusto +3300 Network Effect +3300 Spinoff +3300 Tax +3300 US Navy Cross +3300 Walking Thunder +3300 Mihos +4000 Mind Control +4000 Signalman +4000 Standard Deviation +4000 Coliseum +5000 Harvey Wallbanger +5000 Royal Marine +5000 Knicks Go +10000 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Long Range Toddy, JORR? His grandfather, A.P. Indy, had second fastest time ever in Belmont Stakes in '92 after Secretariat. A.P. Indy just turned 30 years old, March 31st! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruUylcXtcWU Might be better at a buck and a quarter than Omaha Beach, Game Winner and Improbable. Long Range Toddy worked 5f, April 1st, in 1:00.00 (b) finishing 1/18 His performance in the Rebel against Improbable was very impressive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58GE-kM7pxg&t=229s |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
I hope Anothertwistoffate gets in. He's at No. 24 on the KD leaderboard after today's preps. So he'll have to run in the Lexington or Arkansas. His last workout was :46 and change for 4f after his second in the Sunland. By cracky! Took a shot at him in the futures today. Can't get excited taking Maximum Security at 7-1. Will wait for Derby day for him, but he'll prob. be down to 4-1 by then. As of now, I've got Bourbon War, Long Range Toddy and Anothertwistoffate. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
I'm gonna say the winner comes from either the Fla. Derby or the SA Derby. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
I liked Vekoma's effort in the Blue Grass and the fact he was on the lead the whole time. But 1:50 for 1 1/8 mi. isn't going to cut it. He's improved and has heart, but will have to be a lot better in the Derby. Win Win Win finished nice, but again, too slow. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Dignified Rube wrote: I liked Vekoma's effort in the Blue Grass and the fact he was on the lead the whole time. But 1:50 for 1 1/8 mi. isn't going to cut it. He's improved and has heart, but will have to be a lot better in the Derby. Win Win Win finished nice, but again, too slow. I don't like the way he throws that left leg out. I think it will slow him down just enough when the chips are really down. There was a strong front-end bias at KEE today. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: I liked Vekoma's effort in the Blue Grass and the fact he was on the lead the whole time. But 1:50 for 1 1/8 mi. isn't going to cut it. He's improved and has heart, but will have to be a lot better in the Derby. Win Win Win finished nice, but again, too slow. I don't like the way he throws that left leg out. I think it will slow him down just enough when the chips are really down. There was a strong front-end bias at KEE today. JORR, he's still a two-year old. He's a May 22 foal. He'll turn three after the Kentucky Derby. He made giant strides winning today. Castellano said this about the horse in this nice article. “Every time I asked him, he kicked on a little bit,” he said. “I’ve been learning about the horse. I’ve been watching his races. I really fell in love with the horse last week when I worked the horse. I was very optimistic about winning the race today.” posting.php?mode=quote&f=129&p=3195859 I bought a little of him, too. Futures have come way down for him, now 18-1. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Look at that terrible gait in the stretch. For a minute I thought he might take off like a helicopter or screw himself into the ground: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efVRlXbKbtk Anyhow, I think the way he dominated that field yesterday just illustrates how strong the group in Florida is. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Look at that terrible gait in the stretch. For a minute I thought he might take off like a helicopter or screw himself into the ground: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efVRlXbKbtk Anyhow, I think the way he dominated that field yesterday just illustrates how strong the group in Florida is. Vekoma's going to win the whole damn thing with Castellano, you watch. They're magic together. Let's not forget that last year's BG winner, Good Magic, finished second in the KD. Vekoma's only the second horse to win the BG in his 4th start. The trainer himself said this was not even how good the horse is in praising his talent. I read that Seattle Slew had a weird gait, too, and look how he turned out. Futures took a big nose dive on Vekoma after the win. Went down to 17-1. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
I would be utterly shocked if he won the Derby. Bourbon War went at 32/1 in that last pool and Vekoma is 17/1? I know who I prefer. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Contenders |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I would be utterly shocked if he won the Derby. Bourbon War went at 32/1 in that last pool and Vekoma is 17/1? I know who I prefer. Bourbon War has won 2 of 5, with no stakes wins and a second in a G3. Vekoma has won 3 of 4, with a third in a G3 and a 1st in a G1. You're in denial, JORR. Just trying to be helpful. |
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