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| Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=116331 |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes |
I’m not that sophisticated, maybe that’s why I love Tampa… In the Sam Davis…#3 Knicks Go is the class of this group, but that’s not really saying a lot…still, he’ll be way over bet and I think there is value elsewhere….his two wins have come from him being in front nearly wire to wire, and he’ll have plenty of company, so if that’s his recipe it could get very hot on the front end……#4 Cave Run is a local (Street Sense) who is 2/2 in the $ here at Tampa, has good connections and seems to be pointed towards this race…my personal favorite, #7 Five Star General, who keeps Jose Ortiz in the saddle.. and workout tabs are outstanding At Gulfstream, MY GUY Cowboy Culture (trainer Norm Casse) is entered in the 100K El Prado Stakes….another race for him that sets up well, although there is quite a bit of talent in this one…#3 Vici has been beaten up in the G2/G3 level…#5 Mr. Cub will probably take most of the money… lost last to Bricks and Mortar (last seen dismantling his Pegasus’ Day competition), but before that had a less than could be expected Fall at Keeneland….Hembree and Siem Riep also have Graded Stakes experience…Cowboy Culture loses J. Lepareaux (he’s on the heavy favorite at the Tampa Bay G3-Heart To Heart) but should get another good pace to run at and will be guaranteed to be a another huge number. Get it while you can. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes |
I hate Tampa Bay. The track just plays weird. It's an odd surface. Even the turf course is strange. Several times this meet I've had horse that looked like sure winners at the eighth pole suddenly fallten out in the last 100 yards. Anyway, I think Cave Run will get a good set up in there, but I'm likely to try So Alive and hope the field really comes back to him. In the El Prado, I really like Hembree. I think he'll be right behind a relatively mild pace and the extra distance is going to help him. Good luck! |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes |
I like ***** General on or need the lead should be a horse to takes the lead turning for home.In my perfecta box Kentucky Wildcat with Jersey Joe cha cha down the lane.Joe I hate,Tampa cause of the nasally announcer Dick Grunder….Good Luck |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes |
I like Still Dreaming for the Sam Davis, coming off a maiden win. He ran his last quarter of that 1 mi. race at Laurel in 23 3/5 when he was hand ridden, which bodes well for the 1 1/16 mi. distance in this race. He also has very good speed distribution relative to the field, where his EP and LP figures are both competitive in simulation. I also like the A.P. Indy pedigree. The only negative is that he's a little risky (variance in final speed figures compared to mean), reflective in the 15-1 M/L. Unless the horse won the Breeders Cup Juvenile or hit the board, class doesn't matter too much with these still young horses. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I hate Tampa Bay. The track just plays weird. It's an odd surface. Even the turf course is strange. Several times this meet I've had horse that looked like sure winners at the eighth pole suddenly fallten out in the last 100 yards. Anyway, I think Cave Run will get a good set up in there, but I'm likely to try So Alive and hope the field really comes back to him. In the El Prado, I really like Hembree. I think he'll be right behind a relatively mild pace and the extra distance is going to help him. Good luck! Cha Ching |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I hate Tampa Bay. The track just plays weird. It's an odd surface. Even the turf course is strange. Several times this meet I've had horse that looked like sure winners at the eighth pole suddenly fallten out in the last 100 yards. I think there is quicksand 3-4 wide and out at the quarter pole at Tampa. Simply Dreaming got within striking distance, and then his feet got stuck when the jockey took him wide around the far turn rather than sticking to the rail. Very peculiar that the horse just died, but also stupid jockeying to take a longer route. Made no sense. I'm kicking myself, because I had the winner as the top selection in my model, but overrode it in favor of Simply Dreaming. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sam Davis-Tampa and Saturday Stakes |
Nice call JORR on Hembree...really upset that Albaraldo took Cowboy Culture inside...it was enough pace and he was in front of the eventual winner, yet decided to dive back into a slew of horses backing up...still paid $9 for place ...but grrrr and Knicks Go was way overbet in the Sam Davis at Tampa, I just backed the wrong local horse... |
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