Casse's War of Will is the favorite at 5/2 on the M/L after his win in the Lecomte at 1 70y on the dirt at the Fairgrounds in January. He had a good time under 1:44. Owendale had an even faster time than War of Will in his last at the same distance and is the second favorite. My model is favoring Kingly, but that's based on only two data points and low variance with a winning prob. under 20%. He would have value according to the 12-1 M/L price.

Henley's Joy looked impressive two back in the 1 mi. Pulpit stakes when he burst down the stretch. But that was on the turf at GP. With his Kitten's Joy pedigree, he should be able to run forever. He's the class in the race along with Dunph, so I kind of like him.

Bankit looks like a nice horse. He's in the Southwest on Monday.

War of Will looked great in the Lecomte. It wouldn't be a shock if he ran the table in the Louisiana preps. Of course, at a short price from an outside post in a bulky field I'm going to try to beat him. I think the likeliest horses to do so are Owendale, Limonite, and Frolic More. If Frolic More can move forward even marginally off his last race, he's a solid contender in this race. He has enough speed to stay close up and avoid a lot of traffic and he should be able to work out a nice trip.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Henley's Joy did the mile in the Pulpit at 1:34:34 and that was under a hand ride the last 1/16 mi. When 1:36 is considered a good mile time, that's impressive.

But for a horse that's done well on the turf, excluding the Breeders Cup Turf Juvenile for which we'll give him a mulligan, why would you put him on the dirt? The connections have to know something we don't or they're nuts.

He's a little guy, but fast.

War of Will will have trouble repeating that performance, especially stuck outside. I think the long stretch at Fairgrounds is really going to help Limonite, even if the pace isn't particularly fast. I really like Country House, trained by Bill Mott who has an outstanding record of shipping horses to FG, and Luis Saez stays aboard. I'm going to try to work a trifecta focusing on those 3.

Kingly is a Baffert Horse, but the guys at DRF in their preview of the race say Baffert was going to scratch him. No indication yet that's true.

Would be leaning toward War of Will, Owendale, Henley's Joy and Kingly for my top four.

Kingly scratched, should be in the El Camino.

This is a watch race for me will bet a $2 tri straight the same as they finished in the Lecomte

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

A Henley's Joy and Owendale exacta would be very nice, either order.

Nice ride on War of Will. Terrible trip for Limonite. I'm gonna be down there for the Louisiana Derby. I'll be looking for him there.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Bankit not getting a lot of respect on the M/L for the Southwest, but he rates well. About a 16% winning prob as the second favorite in my model, so 5-1 is fair value. The other contenders are Jersey Agenda, Gray Attempt and Olympic Runner. None are really stand-outs. Gray Attempt and Jersey Agenda have the speed in the race, but Gray Attempt is much lower risk.

Probably go with Gray Attempt and Bankit. Gray Attempt won the Smarty Jones at OP at the end of Jan. Bankit finished a disappointing 6th, but I like his running style.

In the Southwest only two of these horses have gone this far, the 3-Cutting Humor (Pletcher /Velazquez) and the 11-Olympic Runner, the latter having run only twice breaking his maiden at GP last month. Pletcher does very well here at OP and should take a lot of the money. Six of them came out of the Smarty Jones, and of them, I thought the 8-Six Shooter finished best of all and will relish the extra distance. The 7-Sueno finished 2nd to a very good Gunmetal Grey in the Sham...and I have a lot of respect for the 10-Long Range Toddy, but he seems to have only one gear...Asmussen has four runners, among them the 5-Jersey Agenda is very capable...it will be a very good race, and it is even televised on FS2 if you care (or can find it)

8-Six Shooter
7-Sueno
3-Cutting Humor
5-Jersey Agenda
10-Long Range Toddy

And going back to the Risen Star I was way wrong thinking War of Will would bounce, that was a very nice performance particularly from that post. But I was correct with my choice of Country House who finished best of all. I'm going to keep an eye on him.

The added distance and change of jock have me lookin towards Bankit $$$$$$$$$$

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

To what do you attribute the bad trip for Limonite? I had him in my exacta with WoW and felt even better as they went to the gate and someone on TVG commented on its price. I really liked Limonite for the price. What happened?

I hit the tri on the 7th at Fair Grounds for a decent payout and a small exacta on R1 at Santa Anita. Other than that, bupkus.

Asmussen/Santana have won the last 3 races and 4 on the day. Bodes well for 5-Jersey Agenda in the Southwest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3Nal-v_4fU

He had to check hard at least three times in the stretch. When he finally got clearance it was way too late and Hernandez geared him down. Hernandez was standing almost straight up in the irons coming past the wire. I doubt he would have beaten War of Will on Saturday, but I think if he gets a seam earlier he runs second for sure. I think a buck and an eighth is the right distance for him. Big shot in his next whether it's in Louisiana or Arkansas.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I had Super Steed, I shit you not. Took him because I liked the name.

I'll show, if you want to see it. I ain't bluffin. 62-1, unreal.

It was a hunch play.

Here you go gents.

"http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibear214/media/supersteed_zpsufpnkjij.png.html?sort=3&o=0"

You have to copy the link in the address bar.

sweet

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

How much stock do you guys put in bloodlines? I ask because offspring of Tapit had a huge day on Saturday.

I appreciate your knowledge. Thanks.

To me, the only time bloodlines matter at all are A) for a first-time starter or B) in the Kentucky Derby when the horses are going a distance they have never gone before and may only go one time in their entire lives.

Good breeding never helped a bad horse.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I look for value when horses are running on a new surface or distance and have the bloodlines that give them an advantage, often unseen by the public.