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Gotham Stakes
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=116694		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:24 am ]
Post subject:  Gotham Stakes
I think we need to change the subject from prized thoroughbreds dying. Let's hope Santa Anita gets their act together and resurfaces the track and puts in a better drainage system.

Here's the draw for the Gotham at 1 mi.

1 Family Biz
Ridden by Kendrick Carmouche
Owned by Chen, Danny J., Cestaro, James and Campbell Road Stables
Trained by Edward R. Barker

2 Knicks Go
Ridden by Jose Lezcano
Owned by KRA Stud Farm
Trained by Ben Colebrook

3 Mind Control
Ridden by John R. Velazquez
Owned by Red Oak Stable (Brunetti) and Madaket Stables, LLC
Trained by Gregory D. Sacco

4 Much Better
Ridden by Mike E. Smith
Owned by Three Chimneys Farm
Trained by Bob Baffert

5 Haikal
Ridden by Rajiv Maragh
Owned by Shadwell Stable
Trained by Kiaran P. McLaughlin

6 Instagrand
Ridden by Javier Castellano
Owned by OXO Equine LLC
Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer

7 Not That Brady
Ridden by Gutierrez Reyluis
Owned by Imperio, Michael, Lianna Stables, Inc., R. A. Hill Stable and Rodriguez, Rudy R.
Trained by Rudy R. Rodriguez

8 Tikhvin Flew
Ridden by Dylan Davis
Owned by Bloom Racing Stable LLC and Madaket Stables LLC
Trained by Steven M. Asmussen
Author:  Rod [ Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
I think there's a good chance to beat Instagrand in this race.

Image

When we look at the plot, No. Tikhvin Flew looks well situated behind the speed. He's a developing colt just looking to cover more ground. Quadrant I squares win at a 23.1% clip. There's a lot to like about this horse in this spot, especially if he's anywhere near his 12/1 morning line.

Image

Another legit contender in this race at a price is the 5 horse, Haikal. He'll be coming from farther back, but there should be decent contention up front and 38 is a fairly fast projected speed rate. McLaughlin is bringing this guy along nicely.

Image

Finally, I'll be using Not That Brady underneath. He's in deep water here but I love this horse. I bet him last time and he absolutely ran his guts out. Nine panels may have been pushing his distance limitations and the cut back to a mile should only help him.

Image
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Instagrand looks to be the class of this race. I wouldn't bet against him, too good. Don't think distance will be a problem for him at all.

He could also be your Derby winner. And he's still cheap at 14-1 in the futures. He's a big horse, like Justify.

Haikal and Knicks Go should fill out the tri-fecta. Not that Brady has an outside chance to win, but it would take more than 5-1 for me to be interested.

I don't think quantitative analysis will help much in this race with such scant data. This is one to go with your instinct.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Actually, the true class in the race, in terms of money finishes, is Knicks Go, with his win in the G1 Breeders Futurity and place finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year, both at 1 1/16 mi. But because horse racing is a "What have you done lately?" sport, he's being discounted after sub-par performances his last two times out, including a 5th in the Sam F. Davis in early Feb. I have a hard time believing that a super horse as a two-year would not blossom at some point into high caliber three-year old. I attribute the clunker in the Kentucky Jockey Club to having run the horse too hard after five starts between July and November, with that Jockey Club race coming after only 3 weeks rest. I think he'll do better in this one as second off the lay-off and with more than a month's rest. His workouts have been good. This is a horse that took Game Winner all that he had to beat in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. For the right price, I would like to bet him. His grand-dad is Awesome Again, who's the #1 sire of all G1 winners on dirt, or so I read.

Because Instagrand is getting so little odds at 1-1 on the M/L, I think the right strategy is to use him as a hedge while going for it with Knicks Go, Haikal or Not That Brady to win. That is unless Walt is seeing something in the corn fields today! :wink:
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Image

Instagrand won't need the lead be sittin chilly 3rd as they turn for home ….then turn off the lights the party's over, Don't have JORR money for this one ….but lots of other races to lose money on......Good luck
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
I have nothing but respect for Hollendorfer but his dumbfuck of an owner retarded Instagrand's progress. Hollendorfer has to work around this goof.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I have nothing but respect for Hollendorfer but his dumbfuck of an owner retarded Instagrand's progress. Hollendorfer has to work around this goof.

Tampa Bay Derby JORR looks completive and maybe a great price
Author:  Rod [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I have nothing but respect for Hollendorfer but his dumbfuck of an owner retarded Instagrand's progress. Hollendorfer has to work around this goof.

Tampa Bay Derby JORR looks completive and maybe a great price



Who do you like in there? I'm a little interested in Dream Maker.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I have nothing but respect for Hollendorfer but his dumbfuck of an owner retarded Instagrand's progress. Hollendorfer has to work around this goof.

Tampa Bay Derby JORR looks completive and maybe a great price



Who do you like in there? I'm a little interested in Dream Maker.

Sure is the back class should sit off the lead ….speed holds at this joint Oxley and Casse won this a few years back..... Love Pletcher in this race Outshined good luck
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
I forgot how good Well Defined was in the Sam Davis. Posted a fast time under 1:43 for a mile and a sixteenth. He even beat my Knicks Go soundly. No reason to bet against him in the Tampa Derby on that funny track, when he just won there in convincing wire-to-wire fashion. I absolutely would take him again.

Can't believe he's getting 99-1 in the Derby futures. Buy low, sell high!
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Had Knicks Go and Haikal. Yes sir!

Why didn't someone tell Lezcano to take it easy in the early fractions? Of course the horse is going to tire at that pace. Just stupid.

While Instagrand was there at the end, I thought he'd be better. This race will take him out of Derby consideration, because he can't go the distance. No way.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
This is ok but I would love to sit back and have a couple of beers with JORR....for instance I know we would have discussed Vino Rosso who he loved coming out of the Tampa Bay last year ..wins the Stymie :D
Author:  Rod [ Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gotham Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
This is ok but I would love to sit back and have a couple of beers with JORR....for instance I know we would have discussed Vino Rosso who he loved coming out of the Tampa Bay last year ..wins the Stymie :D



Yeah, I was against Vino Rosso yesterday. I figured he'd be too far back. He just gutted it out.
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